Analysis
9/27/23
8 min read
Fantasy Football: 2023 NFL Week 4 Projections, Justin Herbert Moves Up
Using machine learning, I’ve built a model that projects player usage and fantasy performance week to week. Below, you can find the model’s 2023 Week 4 projections. Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, as well as their projected points in half-PPR leagues and projected rank.
Three write-ups for interesting and notable players will be found under each position.
Disclaimer: I wouldn’t recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average.
Good luck in Week 4.
Quarterbacks
| Player | Att. | Comp. | Yds | TD | Rush | Yds | TDs | FFPTs | Rank |
| Patrick Mahomes | 39 | 25 | 273 | 2.8 | 3 | 18 | 0.1 | 22.7 | 1 |
| Josh Allen | 37 | 26 | 266 | 2.2 | 4 | 28 | 0.3 | 22.2 | 2 |
| Justin Herbert | 36 | 24 | 269 | 2.5 | 3 | 10 | 0.2 | 20.8 | 3 |
| Jalen Hurts | 30 | 20 | 208 | 1.6 | 9 | 39 | 0.6 | 20.5 | 4 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 35 | 23 | 286 | 2.4 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 20.0 | 5 |
| Lamar Jackson | 28 | 20 | 181 | 1.6 | 8 | 39 | 0.6 | 19.5 | 6 |
| Kirk Cousins | 37 | 25 | 274 | 2.3 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 19.2 | 7 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 37 | 24 | 231 | 1.8 | 3 | 20 | 0.3 | 18.3 | 8 |
| Dak Prescott | 34 | 23 | 211 | 2.3 | 2 | 8 | 0.3 | 18.2 | 9 |
| Justin Fields | 31 | 19 | 218 | 1.1 | 9 | 48 | 0.4 | 17.9 | 10 |
| Russell Wilson | 32 | 21 | 257 | 1.7 | 3 | 15 | 0.2 | 17.8 | 11 |
| Jared Goff | 36 | 24 | 263 | 1.8 | 2 | 4 | 0.1 | 17.0 | 12 |
| Joe Burrow | 34 | 22 | 240 | 1.9 | 2 | 6 | 0.2 | 17.0 | 13 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 30 | 21 | 243 | 1.7 | 3 | 11 | 0.1 | 16.8 | 14 |
| Geno Smith | 32 | 22 | 231 | 1.9 | 2 | 10 | 0.1 | 16.7 | 15 |
| Brock Purdy | 30 | 21 | 230 | 1.9 | 2 | 3 | 0.2 | 16.3 | 16 |
| Anthony Richardson | 32 | 21 | 191 | 1.1 | 6 | 38 | 0.4 | 16.2 | 17 |
| Matthew Stafford | 36 | 23 | 264 | 1.7 | 2 | 1 | 0.1 | 16.1 | 18 |
| Deshaun Watson | 34 | 20 | 204 | 1.5 | 4 | 23 | 0.2 | 15.9 | 19 |
| Mac Jones | 39 | 26 | 241 | 1.5 | 3 | 7 | 0.1 | 15.8 | 20 |
| Baker Mayfield | 33 | 22 | 222 | 1.6 | 4 | 12 | 0.1 | 15.5 | 21 |
| Daniel Jones | 34 | 22 | 228 | 1.1 | 5 | 19 | 0.3 | 15.4 | 22 |
| C.J. Stroud | 36 | 23 | 240 | 1.2 | 3 | 20 | 0.1 | 15.3 | 23 |
| Jordan Love | 30 | 17 | 203 | 1.5 | 3 | 14 | 0.2 | 15.3 | 24 |
| Jameis Winston | 38 | 24 | 264 | 1.6 | 0 | 2 | 0.1 | 15.2 | 25 |
| Kenny Pickett | 35 | 21 | 225 | 1.4 | 3 | 13 | 0.2 | 15.1 | 26 |
| Sam Howell | 31 | 20 | 209 | 1.2 | 3 | 21 | 0.2 | 14.7 | 27 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 28 | 19 | 184 | 0.9 | 3 | 31 | 0.2 | 14.6 | 28 |
| Desmond Ridder | 28 | 18 | 194 | 1.3 | 3 | 12 | 0.2 | 13.9 | 29 |
| Bryce Young | 35 | 22 | 223 | 1.2 | 3 | 12 | 0.1 | 13.8 | 30 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 29 | 18 | 203 | 1.1 | 2 | 6 | 0.1 | 12.5 | 31 |
| Zach Wilson | 29 | 17 | 167 | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | 0.1 | 12.0 | 32 |
Justin Herbert (QB3)
After ranking eighth on this table last week, Justin Herbert has moved up to third. It’s of note that Los Angeles Chargers WR Mike Williams will miss the remainder of the season with an ACL injury. Williams has been a productive member of this offense, but after he exited in Week 3, Herbert marched onward, averaging 13.1 yards per attempt.
Fortunately for the Chargers, Keenan Allen looks like he did ages ago, entering Week 4 as fantasy’s WR2 in PPR formats. The Chargers will likely look to get rookie WR Quentin Johnston involved against a perfectly average Las Vegas Raiders defense.
Justin Fields (QB10)
Justin Fields has without a doubt been one of 2023’s biggest disappointments. Once projected as a top-five quarterback, Fields goes another week projected as the QB10. Though his base stats took a hit, Fields gets a Denver Broncos team that's allowing 13 percent more yards per reception and 27 percent more yards per rush to opposing teams vs. the league average. If Fields can’t put it together this week against one of the most exploitable defenses, it could be time to find a new quarterback.
Daniel Jones (QB22)
Speaking of big disappointments, Daniel Jones has looked nothing like he did in his 2022 campaign after signing a $160 million contract. Projected as this week’s QB22, Jones is facing a Seattle Seahawks defense that has been one of the best against rushers, now with former all-pro safety Jamal Adams returning to action.
Jones and his skill players are borderline unstartable — with the exception of RB Saquon Barkley, should he return from his ankle sprain.
Wide Receivers
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TDs | FFPTS | Rank |
| Tyreek Hill | 11 | 8 | 106 | 0.7 | 18.9 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 10 | 7 | 105 | 0.6 | 18.0 | 2 |
| Keenan Allen | 12 | 8 | 99 | 0.7 | 17.9 | 3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 10 | 7 | 88 | 0.6 | 16.9 | 4 |
| Stefon Diggs | 11 | 8 | 88 | 0.6 | 16.6 | 5 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 9 | 6 | 79 | 0.8 | 15.7 | 6 |
| Chris Olave | 10 | 7 | 85 | 0.4 | 14.6 | 7 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 10 | 6 | 73 | 0.6 | 14.3 | 8 |
| Puka Nacua | 11 | 7 | 72 | 0.5 | 14.0 | 9 |
| Davante Adams | 9 | 6 | 77 | 0.6 | 14.0 | 10 |
| Mike Evans | 9 | 6 | 79 | 0.5 | 14.0 | 11 |
| A.J. Brown | 9 | 6 | 75 | 0.6 | 13.9 | 12 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 7 | 5 | 71 | 0.6 | 13.8 | 13 |
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 5 | 69 | 0.6 | 12.8 | 14 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 6 | 4 | 64 | 0.6 | 12.5 | 15 |
| George Pickens | 9 | 5 | 63 | 0.5 | 12.5 | 16 |
| Calvin Ridley | 9 | 6 | 70 | 0.4 | 12.5 | 17 |
| Deebo Samuel | 7 | 4 | 55 | 0.3 | 12.4 | 18 |
| DeVonta Smith | 8 | 5 | 66 | 0.5 | 12.1 | 19 |
| Courtland Sutton | 8 | 5 | 68 | 0.4 | 11.9 | 20 |
| Terry McLaurin | 8 | 5 | 63 | 0.4 | 11.9 | 21 |
| Tutu Atwell | 8 | 5 | 66 | 0.3 | 11.8 | 22 |
| Nico Collins | 9 | 5 | 71 | 0.3 | 11.6 | 23 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 7 | 5 | 56 | 0.4 | 10.9 | 24 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9 | 5 | 62 | 0.4 | 10.9 | 25 |
| Amari Cooper | 8 | 5 | 56 | 0.5 | 10.9 | 26 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 7 | 4 | 61 | 0.4 | 10.9 | 27 |
| Tee Higgins | 8 | 5 | 60 | 0.4 | 10.6 | 28 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 9 | 6 | 56 | 0.3 | 10.6 | 29 |
| Chris Godwin | 7 | 4 | 48 | 0.4 | 10.3 | 30 |
| Jahan Dotson | 8 | 5 | 50 | 0.3 | 10.2 | 31 |
| Garrett Wilson | 8 | 4 | 50 | 0.5 | 10.1 | 32 |
| Christian Watson | 6 | 4 | 53 | 0.4 | 10.0 | 33 |
| Tyler Lockett | 7 | 5 | 45 | 0.5 | 9.9 | 34 |
| Robert Woods | 8 | 5 | 56 | 0.2 | 9.6 | 35 |
| Christian Kirk | 7 | 4 | 44 | 0.4 | 9.5 | 36 |
| Adam Thielen | 7 | 5 | 52 | 0.3 | 9.4 | 37 |
| Elijah Moore | 8 | 4 | 49 | 0.3 | 9.2 | 38 |
| Marquise Brown | 8 | 5 | 46 | 0.4 | 9.2 | 39 |
| D.J. Moore | 6 | 4 | 51 | 0.3 | 9.2 | 40 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 8 | 5 | 47 | 0.3 | 9.2 | 41 |
| Skyy Moore | 5 | 4 | 44 | 0.4 | 9.1 | 42 |
| Josh Palmer | 6 | 4 | 40 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 43 |
| Gabe Davis | 6 | 4 | 48 | 0.4 | 9.0 | 44 |
| Jordan Addison | 5 | 4 | 46 | 0.4 | 8.9 | 45 |
| Michael Thomas | 8 | 5 | 47 | 0.3 | 8.8 | 46 |
| Zay Flowers | 6 | 4 | 46 | 0.2 | 8.2 | 47 |
| Tank Dell | 6 | 4 | 45 | 0.3 | 8.2 | 48 |
| Zay Jones | 6 | 3 | 35 | 0.3 | 7.9 | 49 |
| Treylon Burks | 5 | 3 | 39 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 50 |
| Drake London | 5 | 3 | 38 | 0.4 | 7.7 | 51 |
| Darius Slayton | 6 | 4 | 46 | 0.2 | 7.5 | 52 |
| Quentin Johnston | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0.3 | 7.5 | 53 |
| Romeo Doubs | 6 | 3 | 39 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 54 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 6 | 4 | 40 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 55 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 56 |
| Josh Reynolds | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 57 |
| K.J. Osborn | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0.3 | 6.8 | 58 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 5 | 4 | 33 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 59 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 3 | 34 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 60 |
| Allen Lazard | 5 | 3 | 33 | 0.3 | 6.5 | 61 |
| Josh Downs | 6 | 4 | 36 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 62 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 3 | 29 | 0.2 | 6.0 | 63 |
| Jayden Reed | 5 | 3 | 35 | 0.2 | 5.9 | 64 |
| Rashod Bateman | 4 | 3 | 29 | 0.2 | 5.7 | 65 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 2 | 22 | 0.4 | 5.5 | 66 |
| Mack Hollins | 5 | 3 | 35 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 67 |
| Parris Campbell | 6 | 3 | 27 | 0.1 | 5.4 | 68 |
| Van Jefferson | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 69 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 3 | 2 | 27 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 70 |
| Rondale Moore | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0.1 | 5.2 | 71 |
| Tyler Boyd | 4 | 2 | 25 | 0.3 | 5.2 | 72 |
| Chase Claypool | 5 | 3 | 29 | 0.1 | 5.0 | 73 |
Ja’Marr Chase (WR8)
It’ll be tough for any machine learning model to understand what has happened with Ja’Marr Chase this season. Joe Burrow hasn’t looked like himself as he deals with this calf injury. As a result, Chase suffered through the first two weeks of the season. Then, in Week 3, Chase saw a career-high 22 snaps and six targets out of the slot.
We haven’t seen Chase play much out of the slot, nor do we know if it will continue. The good news is that Week 3 was Chase’s best yet in 2023. He saw a career-high 12 receptions and now faces what is arguably the NFL's worst secondary in the Tennessee Titans.
Tyreek Hill (WR1), Jaylen Waddle (WR15)
With Tyreek Hill dominating, there’s not much room for Jaylen Waddle to be the high-end WR1 talent he’s been the last few seasons. In Waddle’s absence last week, Hill saw nearly a 40 percent target share. Three other wide receivers saw a reception, but it truly was the "Hill Show."
With the speedy backfield of De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert being another avenue for the Miami Dolphins’ offense to succeed, Waddle has likely left WR1 territory. The matchup against the Buffalo Bills’ stout secondary doesn’t bode well for Waddle, either.
George Pickens (WR16)
Diontae Johnson’s hamstring injury has led to the emergence of a new WR1 in Pittsburgh. In the past two weeks, George Pickens’ 28.6 percent target share is the 13th highest, tied with Justin Jefferson. Though the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense isn’t as pass-heavy as the Minnesota Vikings’, Pickens has still had solid back-to-back weeks; he’s been the WR13. Pickens and the Steelers face the Houston Texans in Week 4, making him a must-start wide receiver.
Running Backs
| Player | Rushes | Yds | TDs | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TDs | FFPTS | Rank |
| Christian McCaffrey | 15 | 72 | 0.6 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 0.3 | 17.2 | 1 |
| Bijan Robinson | 15 | 70 | 0.6 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 0.3 | 16.8 | 2 |
| Tony Pollard | 18 | 70 | 0.5 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 0.3 | 16.5 | 3 |
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 59 | 0.6 | 6 | 4 | 34 | 0.2 | 16.1 | 4 |
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 78 | 0.8 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0.1 | 15.6 | 5 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 16 | 69 | 0.7 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 0.0 | 15.3 | 6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 15 | 74 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 0.1 | 14.6 | 7 |
| Travis Etienne | 15 | 63 | 0.6 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 0.1 | 14.0 | 8 |
| James Conner | 17 | 70 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0.2 | 13.0 | 9 |
| Kyren Williams | 16 | 57 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0.2 | 12.8 | 10 |
| Rachaad White | 15 | 60 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 0.2 | 12.8 | 11 |
| Joe Mixon | 17 | 59 | 0.4 | 5 | 3 | 25 | 0.1 | 12.8 | 12 |
| Zack Moss | 17 | 75 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0.0 | 12.8 | 13 |
| James Cook | 13 | 66 | 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 0.2 | 12.7 | 14 |
| Javonte Williams | 13 | 50 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 0.2 | 12.3 | 15 |
| Jerome Ford | 14 | 60 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0.1 | 12.2 | 16 |
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 63 | 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 0.2 | 12.0 | 17 |
| Raheem Mostert | 12 | 66 | 0.4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0.2 | 11.9 | 18 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 10 | 41 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 0.3 | 11.7 | 19 |
| De’Von Achane | 11 | 61 | 0.4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0.2 | 11.5 | 20 |
| Joshua Kelley | 20 | 66 | 0.4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 0.1 | 11.5 | 21 |
| Najee Harris | 11 | 47 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0.2 | 11.4 | 22 |
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 46 | 0.4 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 0.1 | 11.4 | 23 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 17 | 57 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0.1 | 11.4 | 24 |
| Miles Sanders | 15 | 53 | 0.5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 0.1 | 11.3 | 25 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 12 | 47 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0.1 | 10.9 | 26 |
| Jaylen Warren | 7 | 31 | 0.4 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 0.1 | 10.8 | 27 |
| David Montgomery | 13 | 53 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0.1 | 10.3 | 28 |
| Dameon Pierce | 14 | 54 | 0.4 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0.0 | 10.3 | 29 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 11 | 48 | 0.3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0.2 | 10.0 | 30 |
| Breece Hall | 10 | 47 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0.1 | 9.9 | 31 |
| Alexander Mattison | 11 | 45 | 0.4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0.1 | 9.8 | 32 |
| Khalil Herbert | 9 | 41 | 0.3 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 0.0 | 9.1 | 33 |
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 44 | 0.3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0.2 | 9.1 | 34 |
| Justice Hill | 11 | 43 | 0.5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 35 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 8 | 35 | 0.4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 36 |
| A.J. Dillon | 9 | 29 | 0.6 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.1 | 8.1 | 37 |
| Roschon Johnson | 7 | 34 | 0.3 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 0.0 | 8.1 | 38 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 8 | 37 | 0.3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0.1 | 7.7 | 39 |
| Samaje Perine | 5 | 21 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 0.1 | 7.6 | 40 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire | 7 | 27 | 0.3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 41 |
| Matt Breida | 9 | 34 | 0.4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0.0 | 7.3 | 42 |
| Dalvin Cook | 9 | 36 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0.1 | 7.2 | 43 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 8 | 42 | 0.3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 44 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 14 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0.3 | 6.9 | 45 |
| Kareem Hunt | 7 | 24 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0.1 | 6.8 | 46 |
| Gus Edwards | 9 | 41 | 0.3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.0 | 6.6 | 47 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 19 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0.1 | 6.4 | 48 |
| Tank Bigsby | 6 | 26 | 0.3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0.1 | 6.3 | 49 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 2 | 7 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 0.2 | 5.9 | 50 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 5 | 23 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0.1 | 5.6 | 51 |
| Cam Akers | 6 | 22 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.1 | 5.5 | 52 |
| Gary Brightwell | 8 | 25 | 0.1 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 53 |
| Tyjae Spears | 4 | 21 | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 54 |
Josh Jacobs (RB4)
In Week 4, facing off against one of the league's worst defenses, Josh Jacobs will look to bounce back from his RB27 start. His complete ownership of this backfield, coupled with the Chargers’ porous defense, projects well for him.
Zack Moss (RB14)
Since the start of Week 2, Zack Moss owns 83 percent of the Indianapolis Colts’ rushing plays, which ranks third in that period. Moss has scored a touchdown in back-to-back weeks. This offense isn’t particularly potent, but the team is talented enough that they’ve been winning games and scoring points.
It’s hard to doubt Moss’ opportunity, and he should be a surefire RB2 each week that this backfield is his. It’s uncertain if (or when) Jonathan Taylor will return, but this backfield is Moss’, not Trey Sermon's.
Alvin Kamara (RB19)
Returning from a three-game suspension, Alvin Kamara will look to make an immediate impact in this banged-up New Orleans Saints backfield. A different player has led this backfield in three straight weeks, and now, Kamara looks to make it four.
Because of the heavy involvement by other backs, my model only projects Kamara to own 51 percent of this backfield in Week 4, with the other 49 percent being split among rookie Kendre Miller, Tony Jones Jr. and Taysom Hill. Should Kamara own more of this backfield, he’d be a high-end RB2. Kamara looks to be an RB1 once Derek Carr returns as the team's quarterback.
Tight Ends
| Player | Tgt | Rec | Yds | TDs | FFPTS | Rank |
| Travis Kelce | 10 | 7 | 76 | 0.8 | 16.1 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 4 | 48 | 0.5 | 10.1 | 2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 8 | 5 | 41 | 0.5 | 10.0 | 3 |
| Sam LaPorta | 8 | 5 | 53 | 0.3 | 9.9 | 4 |
| Darren Waller | 7 | 4 | 50 | 0.2 | 8.7 | 5 |
| George Kittle | 5 | 4 | 44 | 0.3 | 8.3 | 6 |
| Kyle Pitts | 6 | 3 | 44 | 0.3 | 7.9 | 7 |
| Cole Kmet | 6 | 4 | 39 | 0.3 | 7.6 | 8 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 4 | 40 | 0.3 | 7.6 | 9 |
| Evan Engram | 5 | 3 | 30 | 0.4 | 7.2 | 10 |
| Gerald Everett | 5 | 3 | 34 | 0.4 | 7.1 | 11 |
| Dawson Knox | 4 | 3 | 28 | 0.4 | 7.0 | 12 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 3 | 36 | 0.3 | 7.0 | 13 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4 | 2 | 25 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 14 |
| Durham Smythe | 5 | 3 | 26 | 0.4 | 6.3 | 15 |
| Luke Musgrave | 5 | 3 | 31 | 0.3 | 6.1 | 16 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 4 | 3 | 32 | 0.2 | 6.0 | 17 |
| Jake Ferguson | 5 | 3 | 25 | 0.3 | 6.0 | 18 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 4 | 30 | 0.1 | 5.9 | 19 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5 | 3 | 26 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 20 |
| Tyler Conklin | 4 | 2 | 30 | 0.1 | 5.0 | 21 |
| Mike Gesicki | 4 | 3 | 26 | 0.2 | 4.9 | 22 |
| David Njoku | 4 | 2 | 20 | 0.3 | 4.9 | 23 |
| Hayden Hurst | 4 | 2 | 24 | 0.2 | 4.6 | 24 |
| Juwan Johnson | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0.2 | 4.6 | 25 |
| Cade Otton | 5 | 3 | 21 | 0.2 | 4.5 | 26 |
| Noah Fant | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 27 |
| Adam Trautman | 4 | 2 | 22 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 28 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0.1 | 4.1 | 29 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 30 |
| Donald Parham Jr. | 2 | 1 | 18 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 31 |
| Jonnu Smith | 3 | 2 | 25 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 32 |
| Dalton Schultz | 4 | 2 | 17 | 0.1 | 3.7 | 33 |
| Kylen Granson | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0.1 | 3.6 | 34 |
| Noah Gray | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 35 |
Travis Kelce (TE1)
I’ve written about Travis Kelce each week in this column, but now that he’s dating Taylor Swift, that warrants a mention. This isn't something you can add to a machine-learning model, but I’m convinced Kelce is going to go nuclear with the spotlight on him. Even if he doesn’t, if you’re Kelce’s manager, there’s obviously never a need to bench him.
Sam LaPorta (TE3)
Last week, I mentioned Sam LaPorta had a solid matchup against the Atlanta Falcons and Week 3 could be the week he broke out. Now that he has broken out, LaPorta is a week-in and week-out top-five tight end. His matchup against the Green Bay Packers isn’t particularly notable, but his 22.7 percent team target share is.
It ranks 29th among all players. With Amon-Ra St. Brown banged up, LaPorta’s target share sky-rocketed to 35 percent last week. On a short week, LaPorta could be ready for another huge game.
Kyle Pitts (TE7)
Every way you look at it, Kyle Pitts’ peripheral metrics are insane. Among tight ends, he ranks first in percent of team air yards and sixth in team target share. Yet, he hasn't scored more than seven points in a single week.
Fortunately, the tight end position is desolate in fantasy football, and the Jacksonville Jaguars have the worst defense in the NFL against tight ends. They’ve allowed the third-most receptions and the fourth-most yards to the position since last year.
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