Betting

2/6/23

4 min read

Super Bowl LVII Betting: Novelty Props for Chiefs vs. Eagles

By Josh Larky

Super Bowl novelty props

Here are four Super Bowl novelty props that are worth considering ahead of Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. For each line, the math and logic behind tailing it are provided.

The implied probabilities are included, along with the betting odds. If we recommend taking a -110 odds bet, we expect it to hit more than 52.4% of the time, which is the implied probability of -110.

To find each prop, you'll need to scroll to the "Novelty Props" section of the DraftKings or Caesar's sportsbook apps.

Combined Jersey Numbers of All TD Scorers UNDER 170.5

Odds: -110 (52.4%) on DraftKings Sportsbook

  • On the Chiefs, the only skill players with jersey numbers above 24 with TDs this season (regular season and postseason) are:
  • On the Eagles, the only skill player with a jersey number above 35 with a TD this season (regular season and postseason) is:
  • We almost certainly need two TDs from this group of players with jersey numbers in the 80s for the OVER to hit.
  • The Chiefs had multiple scores from players with jersey numbers in the 80s in six of 19 games this year (31.6%).
  • The Chiefs had one score from a player with a jersey number in the 80s in six of 19 games this year (31.6%).
  • Goedert has scored a TD in 26% of his games the past two seasons.
  • If we run 100,000 simulations using R, where we add a Goedert TD 26% of the time to the Chiefs' per game totals:
    • The median is seven games out of 19 (36.8%) with multiple scores
    • The mean is 7.56 games out of 19 (39.8%) with multiple scores
  • Put another way, over 60% of the time, we are UNDER two scores from these high jersey number players, leading me to put money on the UNDER 170.5 combined jersey numbers of TD scorers.

What Happens First For Jalen Hurts: Passing TD

Odds: -280 (73.7%) on Caesar's Sportsbook

  • Passing TD has -280 (73.7%) odds, while Interception has +230 (30.3%) odds.
  • Hurts had a passing TD or interception in 14 games this year.
    • 11 of those 14 (78.6%) games, he threw a passing TD first
  • The Chiefs allowed the most passing TDs during the regular season (33), per The Edge.
  • The Chiefs had 11 interceptions during the regular season:
    • Only nine teams had fewer during the regular season
  • This prop can be found below about 20 other props on the Caesar's novelty props menu.

 

Team to Score Longest Touchdown: Eagles

Odds: -115 (53.5%) on Caesar's Sportsbook

  • Both the Chiefs and Eagles have -115 (53.5%) odds to score the longest TD of this game.
  • When looking at TD length from the 2022 regular season and playoffs in the table below, it immediately becomes clear that the Eagles should be heavy favorites for this line.
Team Over 40 Yards 30-40 Yards 20-29 Yards
PHI 5 6 7
KC 4 2 3
  • This prop can be found about 25 spots below the "What Happens First for Jalen Hurts" prop on the Caesar's novelty props menu.

Shortest TD Yardage in Game OVER 1.5 Yards

Odds: +150 (40%) on Caesar's Sportsbook

  • The Chiefs and Eagles each played 19 games (regular season + postseason), and each had six games with a 1-yard TD score.
  • Using 100,000 simulations in R, where one of the 19 games is randomly chosen for each of Kansas City and Philadelphia:
    • We should expect no 1-yard scores to occur in 46.7% of games
    • 46.7% is higher than the 40% implied odds
  • This prop can be found about 20 spots from the bottom of Caesar's novelty props menu.

WATCH: Bet the Super Bowl Moneyline

 

Tags: Betting, Dallas Goedert, Jalen Hurts See More

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

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