Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, Chris Farley and Ben Wolbransky break down their favorite props and novelty picks for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.
Super Bowl Squares Analysis
- 3 and 0 (or 0 and 3) is your best bet
- 0, 3 and 7 are the three best numbers in general
- 4 and 7 (or 7 and 4) is an underrated pairing
- 9, 2 and 8 are the three numbers to avoid
Shortest TD Yardage, UNDER 1.5 Yards (+150, Caesars)
- The Eagles have become somewhat infamous for their success rate at QB sneaks and success in short-yardage/goal-line situations.
- Each team has six games with a score of fewer than 1.5 yards.
- Given those numbers, a 1-yard score should happen 47% of the time.
- However, the implied odds indicate only a 40% chance, giving the under an edge.
Chiefs Fourth-Down Conversions OVER 0.5 (-130)
- The Chiefs convert fourth downs at a rate of 77%, the second-best in the NFL.
- Against one of the league’s best defenses and faced with the task of keeping pace with one of the most explosive offenses, Kansas City will most likely need to roll the dice to stay in the game.
Team to Score Longest TD, Eagles (-115)
- The line has since moved to -135, but there is still value to be had there.
- This year, the Eagles scored five touchdowns of over 40 yards, while the Chiefs only had four.
- Touchdowns of 30-40 yards: Eagles six, Chiefs two.
- Touchdowns of 20-29 yards: Eagles seven, Chiefs three.
First Sack (Team) Chiefs (+102, FanDuel)
- Even though the Eagles led the league in sacks by a historic margin, the value for the Chiefs’ side makes them the pick here.
- In Jalen Hurts’ 17 starts, the Eagles allowed eight sacks in the first quarter.
- Conversely, in Patrick Mahomes’ 19 starts, the Chiefs only allowed three sacks in the first quarter.
- The Eagles allowed 21 sacks in the first halves of Hurts’ starts; the Chiefs, only 13 sacks in 19 starts.
- Finally, the Eagles have been better at sacking teams in the second half of games, when their opponents are down by multiple scores and trying to mount a comeback.
Eagles lead at Halftime, Chiefs lead End of Game, +650
- Eagles have been the best halftime ATS team in the NFL this season.
- They are also the highest-scoring first-half team in the NFL, albeit the Chiefs are No. 2.
- This fits both the narratives of the Eagles as a fast-starting team and the Chiefs as a come-from-behind team, thanks to Mahomes.
Isiah Pacheco, OVER 16.5 Yards Receiving
- The Chiefs are dealing with lots of injuries at the skill positions (RB, WR).
- JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney all left the AFC Championship against the Bengals with injuries.
- Thus, running back Isiah Pacheco had career-highs in snaps (39), targets (6) and catches (5) in that game.
- Jerick McKinnon’s production has also been lackluster as of late.
First Reception, Travis Kelce (-120) or A.J. Brown (+112) (FanDuel)
- Essentially, this comes down to who wins the coin flip, as these two players are the primary receivers for their respective teams.
- In 19 games, Travis Kelce had a reception on 11 first drives.
- A.J. Brown recorded 11 receptions on first drives as well with Jalen Hurts at quarterback.
- Given the more favorable odds for Brown, go with the Eagles WR1.
First Player to Reach 10 Yards Rushing, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+3,300)
- This is quite the longshot, as this will be Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s first action since Week 11.
- However, given that he is finally healthy and the Chiefs may want to feature their former first-round pick, 1-in-33 odds could make for a great payout.
- With CEH returning to the lineup, the Chiefs may want to reintegrate him to the offense quickly to give them another option at running back.
- How would they do that? Giving him plenty of touches, and thus increasing the likelihood he gets to 10 yards rushing first.
- Furthermore, getting in on these odds before they become much more reasonable (+700-800) could create quite the edge.
First Touchdown Scorer
- Jalen Hurts was second in the league in rushing touchdowns (13), despite missing a few games toward the end of the season.
- Miles Sanders was eighth with 11.
- Travis Kelce was second among all pass-catchers (12).
- Along with A.J. Brown, in a pool, any of the aforementioned four are your best options.
- But if you’re betting straight up, better to go with a longshot outlier, given the odds on the favorites.
- With plenty of games on tape and nothing left to hold back, both coaches could reach deep into their bag of tricks to surprise the opposing defense.
- Quez Watkins (+3500) or Skyy Moore (+4500) are among the more intriguing longshot options.
Travis Kelce, Anytime TD Scorer (-130)
- Yeah, it’s pretty obvious.
- But if the Eagles’ defense has any weakness, it’s over the middle against the linebackers, where Kelce already thrives.
- Given the narratives surrounding the Kelces this week, it’s hard to imagine Travis not getting in the end zone.
- Get in on this line as soon as possible, as some books still have it at -120 or even -110.
Jalen Hurts Passing TD Before Interception, (-280, Caesar’s Sportsbook)
- The odds imply nearly a 74% chance of this happening.
- Like many mobile quarterbacks, Hurts rarely throws interceptions to begin with, as he would rather tuck and run than force the ball into tight coverage.
- In the 14 games where Hurts had a passing TD or an interception, 11 of those games featured him throwing the TD first (79%).
- In addition to that math, the Chiefs allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL during the regular season.
- Finally, only nine teams had fewer interceptions than the Chiefs.
First Sack (Player), Chris Jones or Josh Sweat
- Chris Jones is the better option than pretty much any of the Eagles’ defenders because there are simply too many of them.
- Jones is the guy for the Chiefs.
- But if you really want an Eagle, the best value is probably Josh Sweat.
- The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is its interior, so better to go with an edge rusher, especially one who will probably get more one-on-one opportunities than Haason Reddick or Brandon Graham.
Super Bowl MVP
- Unlike in the regular season, the Super Bowl MVP is not solely a quarterback award, even though they win it 60% of the time vs. 85-90% in the regular season.
- Ryan has Travis Kelce as the best bet, giving him +700-800 odds.
- Last year’s MVP, Cooper Kupp, was +650.
- Kelce has the best matchup by far among the Chiefs’ offensive weapons.
- Mahomes already has a Super Bowl MVP, so the voters might not be looking to give it to him without an incredible performance.
- Even though the winning QB is most likely to win, Kelce will get his targets regardless.
- Finally, if any tight end were to become the first at his position to win Super Bowl MVP, it would probably be Kelce.
- If you’re sticking with the Eagles, take the chalk and go with Hurts.
- There’s some value to be had with the Philly defense, as shutting down Mahomes could go a long way toward winning the award.
Kadarius Toney OVER 49.5 Yards Receiving and Score TD (+1,000, FanDuel)
- Kadarius Toney had 25% snap share of higher in five games for the Chiefs this year.
- They want him to be 30-40% snap share.
- In two of those five games, he had at least 57 yards receiving or scored a TD; in one, he did both.
- It’s a long shot, but in the Super Bowl, anything can happen.
- Correlate the team’s general color with the Gatorade.
- If you think the Eagles will win, go with green/lime or maybe even yellow.
- If you think the Chiefs will win, pick red or orange.
- Both teams have historical precedence with yellow and orange.
National Anthem Length
- The line is higher than usual at two minutes, one second, with some books even moving it up to two minutes, four seconds.
- Furthermore, the over is being juiced (-130, even to -145).
- Per Ben Wolby’s analysis, Chris Stapleton’s songs, albums and performances are significantly longer than other artists.
Rihanna’s First Song, Outfit
- In Super Bowls past, Katy Perry opened with “Roar”, Lady Gaga started with “Edge of Glory” and Coldplay began with “Viva La Vida”.
- All are relatively upbeat songs with discussions of victory, historical success, etc.
- “Diamonds” or “Umbrella,” therefore, are the frontrunners.
- Plus, in every video, she was wearing black.
- However, the in-house Rihanna “stan” himself, Josh Larky, counters with “Please Don’t Stop The Music,” (+150) as a fast-paced, solo feature to get the crowd riled up.
- But Larky and Reynolds agree black is the color of choice.