But if the Eagles’ defense has any weakness, it’s over the middle against the linebackers, where Kelce already thrives.
Given the narratives surrounding the Kelces this week, it’s hard to imagine Travis not getting in the end zone.
Get in on this line as soon as possible, as some books still have it at -120 or even -110.
Jalen Hurts Passing TD Before Interception, (-280, Caesar’s Sportsbook)
The odds imply nearly a 74% chance of this happening.
Like many mobile quarterbacks, Hurts rarely throws interceptions to begin with, as he would rather tuck and run than force the ball into tight coverage.
In the 14 games where Hurts had a passing TD or an interception, 11 of those games featured him throwing the TD first (79%).
In addition to that math, the Chiefs allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL during the regular season.
Finally, only nine teams had fewer interceptions than the Chiefs.
First Sack (Player), Chris Jones or Josh Sweat
Chris Jones is the better option than pretty much any of the Eagles’ defenders because there are simply too many of them.
Jones is the guy for the Chiefs.
But if you really want an Eagle, the best value is probably Josh Sweat.
The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is its interior, so better to go with an edge rusher, especially one who will probably get more one-on-one opportunities than Haason Reddick or Brandon Graham.
Super Bowl MVP
Unlike in the regular season, the Super Bowl MVP is not solely a quarterback award, even though they win it 60% of the time vs. 85-90% in the regular season.
Ryan has Travis Kelce as the best bet, giving him +700-800 odds.
Here are four Super Bowl novelty props that are worth considering ahead of Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. For each line, the math and logic behind tailing it are provided. The implied probabilities are included, along with the betting odds. If we recommend taking a -110 odds bet, we […]
I found three Super Bowl Underdog Fantasy Picks that you should take ahead of next Sunday’s matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles. For each pick, I’ll lay out the statistical and/or logical case behind it, so you can better understand my process.
>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Jalen Hurts Higher than 21.5 Completions
Jalen Hurts was higher than this number in just five of 17 games played this year. However, I really like this line for the Super Bowl because of the matchup.
Quarterbacks averaged 36.7 pass attempts and 24.1 completions per game against the Chiefs this year.
That 24.1 completions per game figure is even getting dragged down because Malik Willis completed just five passes in Week 9.
In 15 of 19 games this year, the opposing quarterback was higher against Kansas City.
The biggest week in prop betting is upon us, and The 33rd Team’s Betting and Fantasy experts have you covered with the best Super Bowl player props.
Ryan Reynolds’ Top 3 Props
Patrick Mahomes Oover Pass Completions 24.5 (-125 on BetMGM)
Patrick Mahomes has gone over this number in 11 of 19 games this season, including the playoffs. The Chiefs are the most pass-centric offense in the league. They’re also projected to be a slight underdog in this game, so we can either reasonably expect this game to be close or for Kansas City to have to play from behind.
I also still expect more short throws to help Mahomes manage the pressure on his high ankle sprain. With the Chiefs going up against a talented Eagles defense, I could see an uptick of dump-off passes to running backs and outside screens to receivers.
The Chiefs’ perimeter receivers are in a pretty tough spot here against James Bradberry and Darius Slay, leading to more passes to the middle of the field. I think there’s a 70% chance this line goes over 24.5.
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Over Tackles 5.5 (+115 on DraftKings)
Kansas City’s high-volume passing game puts the over in play. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is a super-versatile player, playing roughly half his snaps as a safety, a quarter of them at slot corner and another quarter in the box. He saw a bit of an uptick in slot corner snaps when Avonte Maddox was banged up in Week 18 and again in the Divisional Round. He’s only beaten this number in five of 12 regular-season games. However, he’s had exactly five tackles in four other games, and another with five in the playoffs. So even when he falls below this, he’s right there within striking distance.
Dallas Goedert Over 45.5 Yards Receiving (-115 on DraftKings)
This number’s a little lower than I think it should be. With that said, I’m not in love with it because I think potentially every Eagles receiver can get there. It’s one of the problems with picking any of their over/unders throughout the playoffs for me. That said, the Chiefs have allowed the most PPR points to the tight end position in the slot this year. Dallas Goedert plays 29% of his snaps in the slot.
Before Goedert got hurt, he was third in the league in yards after the catch, which is kind of mind-blowing if you really think about it. But part of the reason for that is because they design short-passing plays for him. So we can expect at least one or two of those. He beat this number in 9 of 14 games this year.
One issue I have with this, looking at it from a Chiefs’ perspective, they faced the 49ers’ George Kittle and the Raiders’ Darren Waller this year. Kittle had 98 yards receiving, Waller had 35 late in the year. But they didn’t play a top tight end otherwise. Both Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich of the Broncos reached 40 yards receiving against the Chiefs later in the season. So I think Goedert has a chance to reach 45.5 yards.
Ben Wolby’s Top 3 Props
Miles Sanders Over 57.5 Yards Rushing (-115 on DraftKings)
I was on Miles Sanders over 55.5 rushing yards early in the week. It’s since moved to 57.5 yards. When the Eagles are going up against bad rush defenses, Sanders has a good game. We’ve taken Sanders rushing overs against bad rushing defenses before.
But Kansas City, they don’t have a bad rushing defense; it’s just average. The Chiefs were ranked 15th throughout the regular season, but if we take a look at how they’ve been in the playoffs, they actually haven’t been great. They’re the second-worst playoff team when it comes to rushing DVOA. However, last week they held Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon to a combined 41 rushing yards. We did see Travis Etienne get 62 yards on just 10 carries in the Divisional Round. Sanders’ attempts currently sit around 13.5.
Here’s where I get sold on this prop. If we take a look at games where Jalen Hurts has started, Sanders is averaging 76.5 rushing yards per game. He’s over this number in nine of 15 games and three of those losses came against top-10 DVOA teams.
Jalen Hurts Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards (-105 on DraftKings)
If you watched the show last week, you know I took Joe Burrow’s longest rush over 9.5 yards; he had four rushes, two that went for 11 and 14 yards, which is also higher than Hurts’ line. Why did I take this last week? Because quarterbacks rush at the third-highest rate against Kansas City, and they’ve been good at doing it. The Chiefs are bad against rushing quarterbacks. They’ve allowed 11 rushes of 14 or more yards to quarterbacks this season, second-most in the NFL.
Hurts’ rushing attempts line is 10.5. He’s averaging 10 rushes per game (that are not kneel-downs). So 10 attempts against this defense? It’s going to be hard to keep him under that number when he is fifth in rushes of 14 or more yards with 11 in the regular season.
Last week, Hurts faced San Francisco and the second-best rush DVOA. He still had a 14-yard rush, which would have topped this line against one of the best rush defenses, and it came in the third quarter when the 49ers were up by two touchdowns.
Hurts is going to run the ball all the time. Whether the Eagles are down or whether they’re up, he’s going to run the ball.
Jalen Hurts Under 247.5 Yards Passing (-117 on Caesars)
Hurts has only gone over this number in five of 18 games this year. Three of the games where he went over were against bottom-10 pass DVOA teams, including Chicago (last), Tennessee (28th) and Minnesota, which we were picking against all year. He also went over in a divisional game against Washington and against Pittsburgh without T.J. Watt.
Kansas City’s defense is average in pass DVOA. But during the second half of the season and the playoffs, there’s only one quarterback who has passed this number: Burrow. That is it. There have been so many other quarterbacks since Week 12 who have not topped this number. Furthermore, because it’s the Chiefs, the other quarterbacks were in a negative game script the entire time. Still, these quarterbacks were averaging just 204 yards per game, despite that losing game script.
The Eagles have the fourth-highest rush percentage among all teams in the regular season. Even when they are down by three or more, they are still rushing at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.
Josh Larky’s Top 3 Props
Jerick McKinnon Under 23.5 Yards Rushing (-115 on DraftKings)
Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games. He just hasn’t played much recently, and on top of that, he hasn’t been carrying the ball much. He’s had seven or fewer rushing yards in four of the last five games. It’s crazy this line is at 23.5.
McKinnon did beat that number once in those last five games when he had a season-high 11 carries for just 25 yards. So even when he had a season-high in carries, he barely cleared the number. McKinnon is averaging 1.8 yards per carry during the last five games.
The Eagles are an average run defense at this point. They were near the bottom early in the season. They fortified it by signing Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh. Jordan Davis, their star first-round rookie, returned from injury.
There’s still a chance Clyde Edwards-Helaire is activated for this game. I think there’s a good chance he’s active instead of Ronald Jones, and I think they like him more than Jones. I don’t think this affects Isiah Pacheco at all. But I do think this could actually affect the few carries McKinnon has. They could just go to Edwards-Helaire as they deploy McKinnon mostly as a third-down back.
Jerick McKinnon Longest Rush Under 9.5 Yards (-125 on Draftkings)
Everything I talked about with McKinnon above still applies. This guy does not get a lot of carries. If we look at carries over 9.5 yards, we’re gonna take him under. He’s gone over this in five of his 87 carries in the regular season and in the playoffs; that is 1 in 17.5 carries. As I mentioned, his season-high is 11 carries. Only in one of his last five games did he reach five carries. I don’t understand how you would see this line and take the over.
Jalen Hurts OverPass Completions 21.5 (-108 on FanDuel)
This is -130 at pretty much every other book because people love this. This is a great play. But we’re gonna get it at -108.
Hurts was over this number in just five of his 17 games this season, including the playoffs. But let’s look at the matchup. Quarterbacks against Kansas City average 36.7 pass attempts and 24.1 completions per game. Twenty-four is much higher than 21.5. And that includes the Malik Willis game, where he completed five passes. If we look at the 19 games the Chiefs have played, including playoffs, the opposing quarterback had more than 21.5 completions in 15 of them.
I think the Chiefs are the Vikings of completions overs because in pretty much every game, the opposing quarterback has an over. Here are the four quarterbacks who didn’t have more than 21.5 completions against the Chiefs this year: Derek Carr, Willis, Bryce Perkins and a game against the Texans where Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel split duties.
I understand Hurts runs a lot, but the Eagles have been very opponent-specific with their game plans. The Chiefs quietly allowed about 6.5 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks this season, which is incredibly low.