Super Bowl Props

Betting

Super Bowl LVII: Ultimate Guide to Prop Betting, Office Pool Picks

46 min Watch

Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, Chris Farley and Ben Wolbransky break down their favorite props and novelty picks for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

Super Bowl Squares Analysis

  • 3 and 0 (or 0 and 3) is your best bet
  • 0, 3 and 7 are the three best numbers in general
  • 4 and 7 (or 7 and 4) is an underrated pairing
  • 9, 2 and 8 are the three numbers to avoid

 

Game/Team Props

Shortest TD Yardage, UNDER 1.5 Yards (+150, Caesars)

  • The Eagles have become somewhat infamous for their success rate at QB sneaks and success in short-yardage/goal-line situations.
  • Each team has six games with a score of fewer than 1.5 yards.
  • Given those numbers, a 1-yard score should happen 47% of the time.
  • However, the implied odds indicate only a 40% chance, giving the under an edge.

Chiefs Fourth-Down Conversions OVER 0.5 (-130)

  • The Chiefs convert fourth downs at a rate of 77%, the second-best in the NFL.
  • Against one of the league’s best defenses and faced with the task of keeping pace with one of the most explosive offenses, Kansas City will most likely need to roll the dice to stay in the game.

Team to Score Longest TD, Eagles (-115)

  • The line has since moved to -135, but there is still value to be had there.
  • This year, the Eagles scored five touchdowns of over 40 yards, while the Chiefs only had four.
  • Touchdowns of 30-40 yards: Eagles six, Chiefs two.
  • Touchdowns of 20-29 yards: Eagles seven, Chiefs three.

 

First Sack (Team) Chiefs (+102, FanDuel)

  • Even though the Eagles led the league in sacks by a historic margin, the value for the Chiefs’ side makes them the pick here.
  • In Jalen Hurts’ 17 starts, the Eagles allowed eight sacks in the first quarter.
  • Conversely, in Patrick Mahomes’ 19 starts, the Chiefs only allowed three sacks in the first quarter.
  • The Eagles allowed 21 sacks in the first halves of Hurts’ starts; the Chiefs, only 13 sacks in 19 starts.
  • Finally, the Eagles have been better at sacking teams in the second half of games, when their opponents are down by multiple scores and trying to mount a comeback.

Eagles lead at Halftime, Chiefs lead End of Game, +650

  • Eagles have been the best halftime ATS team in the NFL this season.
  • They are also the highest-scoring first-half team in the NFL, albeit the Chiefs are No. 2.
  • This fits both the narratives of the Eagles as a fast-starting team and the Chiefs as a come-from-behind team, thanks to Mahomes.

Player Props

Isiah Pacheco, OVER 16.5 Yards Receiving

 

First Reception, Travis Kelce (-120) or A.J. Brown (+112) (FanDuel)

  • Essentially, this comes down to who wins the coin flip, as these two players are the primary receivers for their respective teams.
  • In 19 games, Travis Kelce had a reception on 11 first drives.
  • A.J. Brown recorded 11 receptions on first drives as well with Jalen Hurts at quarterback.
  • Given the more favorable odds for Brown, go with the Eagles WR1.

First Player to Reach 10 Yards Rushing, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+3,300)

  • This is quite the longshot, as this will be Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s first action since Week 11.
  • However, given that he is finally healthy and the Chiefs may want to feature their former first-round pick, 1-in-33 odds could make for a great payout.
  • With CEH returning to the lineup, the Chiefs may want to reintegrate him to the offense quickly to give them another option at running back.
  • How would they do that? Giving him plenty of touches, and thus increasing the likelihood he gets to 10 yards rushing first.
  • Furthermore, getting in on these odds before they become much more reasonable (+700-800) could create quite the edge.

First Touchdown Scorer

  • Jalen Hurts was second in the league in rushing touchdowns (13), despite missing a few games toward the end of the season.
  • Miles Sanders was eighth with 11.
  • Travis Kelce was second among all pass-catchers (12).
  • Along with A.J. Brown, in a pool, any of the aforementioned four are your best options.
  • But if you’re betting straight up, better to go with a longshot outlier, given the odds on the favorites.
  • With plenty of games on tape and nothing left to hold back, both coaches could reach deep into their bag of tricks to surprise the opposing defense.
  • Quez Watkins (+3500) or Skyy Moore (+4500) are among the more intriguing longshot options.

Travis Kelce, Anytime TD Scorer (-130)

  • Yeah, it’s pretty obvious.
  • But if the Eagles’ defense has any weakness, it’s over the middle against the linebackers, where Kelce already thrives.
  • Given the narratives surrounding the Kelces this week, it’s hard to imagine Travis not getting in the end zone.
  • Get in on this line as soon as possible, as some books still have it at -120 or even -110.

 

Jalen Hurts Passing TD Before Interception, (-280, Caesar’s Sportsbook)

  • The odds imply nearly a 74% chance of this happening.
  • Like many mobile quarterbacks, Hurts rarely throws interceptions to begin with, as he would rather tuck and run than force the ball into tight coverage.
  • In the 14 games where Hurts had a passing TD or an interception, 11 of those games featured him throwing the TD first (79%).
  • In addition to that math, the Chiefs allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL during the regular season.
  • Finally, only nine teams had fewer interceptions than the Chiefs.

First Sack (Player), Chris Jones or Josh Sweat

  • Chris Jones is the better option than pretty much any of the Eagles’ defenders because there are simply too many of them.
  • Jones is the guy for the Chiefs.
  • But if you really want an Eagle, the best value is probably Josh Sweat.
  • The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is its interior, so better to go with an edge rusher, especially one who will probably get more one-on-one opportunities than Haason Reddick or Brandon Graham.

Super Bowl MVP

  • Unlike in the regular season, the Super Bowl MVP is not solely a quarterback award, even though they win it 60% of the time vs. 85-90% in the regular season.
  • Ryan has Travis Kelce as the best bet, giving him +700-800 odds.
  • Last year’s MVP, Cooper Kupp, was +650.
  • Kelce has the best matchup by far among the Chiefs’ offensive weapons.
  • Mahomes already has a Super Bowl MVP, so the voters might not be looking to give it to him without an incredible performance.
  • Even though the winning QB is most likely to win, Kelce will get his targets regardless.
  • Finally, if any tight end were to become the first at his position to win Super Bowl MVP, it would probably be Kelce.
  • If you’re sticking with the Eagles, take the chalk and go with Hurts.
  • There’s some value to be had with the Philly defense, as shutting down Mahomes could go a long way toward winning the award.

 

Kadarius Toney OVER 49.5 Yards Receiving and Score TD (+1,000, FanDuel)

  • Kadarius Toney had 25% snap share of higher in five games for the Chiefs this year.
  • They want him to be 30-40% snap share.
  • In two of those five games, he had at least 57 yards receiving or scored a TD; in one, he did both.
  • It’s a long shot, but in the Super Bowl, anything can happen.

Novelty Props

Gatorade Color

  • Correlate the team’s general color with the Gatorade.
  • If you think the Eagles will win, go with green/lime or maybe even yellow.
  • If you think the Chiefs will win, pick red or orange.
  • Both teams have historical precedence with yellow and orange.

 

National Anthem Length

  • The line is higher than usual at two minutes, one second, with some books even moving it up to two minutes, four seconds.
  • Furthermore, the over is being juiced (-130, even to -145).
  • Per Ben Wolby’s analysis, Chris Stapleton’s songs, albums and performances are significantly longer than other artists.

Rihanna’s First Song, Outfit

  • In Super Bowls past, Katy Perry opened with “Roar”, Lady Gaga started with “Edge of Glory” and Coldplay began with “Viva La Vida”.
  • All are relatively upbeat songs with discussions of victory, historical success, etc.
  • “Diamonds” or “Umbrella,” therefore, are the frontrunners.
  • Plus, in every video, she was wearing black.
  • However, the in-house Rihanna “stan” himself, Josh Larky, counters with “Please Don’t Stop The Music,” (+150) as a fast-paced, solo feature to get the crowd riled up.
  • But Larky and Reynolds agree black is the color of choice.

WATCH: Super Bowl LVII Betting Preview

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Betting

Underdog Fantasy Picks for Super Bowl LVII

25 min Watch

I found three Super Bowl Underdog Fantasy Picks that you should take ahead of next Sunday’s matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles. For each pick, I’ll lay out the statistical and/or logical case behind it, so you can better understand my process.

 

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

Jalen Hurts Higher than 21.5 Completions

  • Jalen Hurts was higher than this number in just five of 17 games played this year. However, I really like this line for the Super Bowl because of the matchup.
  • Quarterbacks averaged 36.7 pass attempts and 24.1 completions per game against the Chiefs this year.
    • That 24.1 completions per game figure is even getting dragged down because Malik Willis completed just five passes in Week 9.
  • In 15 of 19 games this year, the opposing quarterback was higher against Kansas City.
  • The only QBs lower than this number were:

Jerick McKinnon Lower than 22.5 Rushing Yards

  • Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games.
  • McKinnon has seven or fewer rushing yards in four of his past five games.
  • McKinnon has only beaten this number once in the past five games when he carried a season-high 11 times for 25 yards against Jacksonville.
  • McKinnon is averaging just 1.8 yards per carry over the past five games.
  • The Eagles are not a great run defense, but they’ve been roughly league-average the past two months.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire was nearly activated ahead of the AFC Conference Championship game, and he should be active for the Super Bowl in two weeks.
    • Assuming Edwards-Helaire is activated, McKinnon’s rushing line should drop precipitously.

Patrick Mahomes Lower than 18.5 Rushing Yards

  • Patrick Mahomes will be three weeks removed from the high-ankle sprain come the Super Bowl.
    • Full recovery generally takes 4-6 weeks, so he shouldn’t have his normal mobility back yet
  • Mahomes was lower than this number in nine of 19 games this year.
  • Mahomes averaged 21 rushing yards per game during the regular season when fully healthy.
  • This line is similar to his season average, not baking in the ankle issue.
  • In the past two games with this injury, Mahomes has run three times for eight yards in each contest.

>> If you’re new to Underdog Fantasy, sign up with promo code “33rd” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these Super Bowl Underdog Fantasy Picks. As always, deposit your money responsibly.

Watch: Early Super Bowl Betting Preview

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Super Bowl

Player Prop Happy Hour: Early Super Bowl Props

24 min Watch

The biggest week in prop betting is upon us, and The 33rd Team’s Betting and Fantasy experts have you covered with the best Super Bowl player props.

 

Ryan Reynolds’ Top 3 Props

Patrick Mahomes Oover Pass Completions 24.5 (-125 on BetMGM)

  • Patrick Mahomes has gone over this number in 11 of 19 games this season, including the playoffs. The Chiefs are the most pass-centric offense in the league. They’re also projected to be a slight underdog in this game, so we can either reasonably expect this game to be close or for Kansas City to have to play from behind.
  • I also still expect more short throws to help Mahomes manage the pressure on his high ankle sprain. With the Chiefs going up against a talented Eagles defense, I could see an uptick of dump-off passes to running backs and outside screens to receivers.
  • The Chiefs’ perimeter receivers are in a pretty tough spot here against James Bradberry and Darius Slay, leading to more passes to the middle of the field. I think there’s a 70% chance this line goes over 24.5.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Over Tackles 5.5 (+115 on DraftKings)

  • Kansas City’s high-volume passing game puts the over in play. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is a super-versatile player, playing roughly half his snaps as a safety, a quarter of them at slot corner and another quarter in the box. He saw a bit of an uptick in slot corner snaps when Avonte Maddox was banged up in Week 18 and again in the Divisional Round. He’s only beaten this number in five of 12 regular-season games. However, he’s had exactly five tackles in four other games, and another with five in the playoffs. So even when he falls below this, he’s right there within striking distance.

 

Dallas Goedert Over 45.5 Yards Receiving (-115 on DraftKings)

  • This number’s a little lower than I think it should be. With that said, I’m not in love with it because I think potentially every Eagles receiver can get there. It’s one of the problems with picking any of their over/unders throughout the playoffs for me. That said, the Chiefs have allowed the most PPR points to the tight end position in the slot this year. Dallas Goedert plays 29% of his snaps in the slot.
  • Before Goedert got hurt, he was third in the league in yards after the catch, which is kind of mind-blowing if you really think about it. But part of the reason for that is because they design short-passing plays for him. So we can expect at least one or two of those. He beat this number in 9 of 14 games this year.
  • One issue I have with this, looking at it from a Chiefs’ perspective, they faced the 49ers’ George Kittle and the Raiders’ Darren Waller this year. Kittle had 98 yards receiving, Waller had 35 late in the year. But they didn’t play a top tight end otherwise. Both Albert Okwuegbunam and Greg Dulcich of the Broncos reached 40 yards receiving against the Chiefs later in the season. So I think Goedert has a chance to reach 45.5 yards.

Ben Wolby’s Top 3 Props

Miles Sanders Over 57.5 Yards Rushing (-115 on DraftKings)

  • I was on Miles Sanders over 55.5 rushing yards early in the week. It’s since moved to 57.5 yards. When the Eagles are going up against bad rush defenses, Sanders has a good game. We’ve taken Sanders rushing overs against bad rushing defenses before.
  • But Kansas City, they don’t have a bad rushing defense; it’s just average. The Chiefs were ranked 15th throughout the regular season, but if we take a look at how they’ve been in the playoffs, they actually haven’t been great. They’re the second-worst playoff team when it comes to rushing DVOA. However, last week they held Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon to a combined 41 rushing yards. We did see Travis Etienne get 62 yards on just 10 carries in the Divisional Round. Sanders’ attempts currently sit around 13.5.
  • Here’s where I get sold on this prop. If we take a look at games where Jalen Hurts has started, Sanders is averaging 76.5 rushing yards per game. He’s over this number in nine of 15 games and three of those losses came against top-10 DVOA teams.

Jalen Hurts Longest Rush Over 13.5 Yards (-105 on DraftKings)

  • If you watched the show last week, you know I took Joe Burrow’s longest rush over 9.5 yards; he had four rushes, two that went for 11 and 14 yards, which is also higher than Hurts’ line. Why did I take this last week? Because quarterbacks rush at the third-highest rate against Kansas City, and they’ve been good at doing it. The Chiefs are bad against rushing quarterbacks. They’ve allowed 11 rushes of 14 or more yards to quarterbacks this season, second-most in the NFL.
  • Hurts’ rushing attempts line is 10.5. He’s averaging 10 rushes per game (that are not kneel-downs). So 10 attempts against this defense? It’s going to be hard to keep him under that number when he is fifth in rushes of 14 or more yards with 11 in the regular season.
  • Last week, Hurts faced San Francisco and the second-best rush DVOA. He still had a 14-yard rush, which would have topped this line against one of the best rush defenses, and it came in the third quarter when the 49ers were up by two touchdowns.
  • Hurts is going to run the ball all the time. Whether the Eagles are down or whether they’re up, he’s going to run the ball.

 

Jalen Hurts Under 247.5 Yards Passing (-117 on Caesars)

  • Hurts has only gone over this number in five of 18 games this year. Three of the games where he went over were against bottom-10 pass DVOA teams, including Chicago (last), Tennessee (28th) and Minnesota, which we were picking against all year. He also went over in a divisional game against Washington and against Pittsburgh without T.J. Watt.
  • Kansas City’s defense is average in pass DVOA. But during the second half of the season and the playoffs, there’s only one quarterback who has passed this number: Burrow. That is it. There have been so many other quarterbacks since Week 12 who have not topped this number. Furthermore, because it’s the Chiefs, the other quarterbacks were in a negative game script the entire time. Still, these quarterbacks were averaging just 204 yards per game, despite that losing game script.
  • The Eagles have the fourth-highest rush percentage among all teams in the regular season. Even when they are down by three or more, they are still rushing at the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

Josh Larky’s Top 3 Props

Jerick McKinnon Under 23.5 Yards Rushing (-115 on DraftKings)

  • Jerick McKinnon has five or fewer carries in four of his past five games. He just hasn’t played much recently, and on top of that, he hasn’t been carrying the ball much. He’s had seven or fewer rushing yards in four of the last five games. It’s crazy this line is at 23.5.
  • McKinnon did beat that number once in those last five games when he had a season-high 11 carries for just 25 yards. So even when he had a season-high in carries, he barely cleared the number. McKinnon is averaging 1.8 yards per carry during the last five games.
  • The Eagles are an average run defense at this point. They were near the bottom early in the season. They fortified it by signing Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh. Jordan Davis, their star first-round rookie, returned from injury.
  • There’s still a chance Clyde Edwards-Helaire is activated for this game. I think there’s a good chance he’s active instead of Ronald Jones, and I think they like him more than Jones. I don’t think this affects Isiah Pacheco at all. But I do think this could actually affect the few carries McKinnon has. They could just go to Edwards-Helaire as they deploy McKinnon mostly as a third-down back.

Jerick McKinnon Longest Rush Under 9.5 Yards (-125 on Draftkings)

  • Everything I talked about with McKinnon above still applies. This guy does not get a lot of carries. If we look at carries over 9.5 yards, we’re gonna take him under. He’s gone over this in five of his 87 carries in the regular season and in the playoffs; that is 1 in 17.5 carries. As I mentioned, his season-high is 11 carries. Only in one of his last five games did he reach five carries. I don’t understand how you would see this line and take the over.

 

Jalen Hurts OverPass Completions 21.5 (-108 on FanDuel)

  • This is -130 at pretty much every other book because people love this. This is a great play. But we’re gonna get it at -108.
  • Hurts was over this number in just five of his 17 games this season, including the playoffs. But let’s look at the matchup. Quarterbacks against Kansas City average 36.7 pass attempts and 24.1 completions per game. Twenty-four is much higher than 21.5. And that includes the Malik Willis game, where he completed five passes. If we look at the 19 games the Chiefs have played, including playoffs, the opposing quarterback had more than 21.5 completions in 15 of them.
  • I think the Chiefs are the Vikings of completions overs because in pretty much every game, the opposing quarterback has an over. Here are the four quarterbacks who didn’t have more than 21.5 completions against the Chiefs this year: Derek Carr, Willis, Bryce Perkins and a game against the Texans where Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel split duties.
  • I understand Hurts runs a lot, but the Eagles have been very opponent-specific with their game plans. The Chiefs quietly allowed about 6.5 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks this season, which is incredibly low.

 

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