Betting
3/20/23
7 min read
NFL Betting: Free Agency Impact on Super Bowl Bets
Free agency isn’t over, but most of the high-impact players who were available have been signed during the past week. Given all these roster changes, now is a good time to go back and check on futures markets. Here are some Super Bowl bets to consider and a few more to actively avoid.
Teams to Bet On
Seattle Seahawks
- Super Bowl Odds: +7000
- Win NFC Odds: +3000
- Division Odds: +350 to +500
We’ve both bet the Seattle Seahawks at each of these three levels simply because they are underpriced. Here’s why:
- The Seahawks were the NFC's seventh seed last season.
- Now that Geno Smith has been re-signed, Seattle brings back a top-10-caliber offense.
- Seattle added Detroit Lions guard Evan Brown to its already solid offensive line.
- The Seahawks already have added defensive upgrades in defensive tackle Dre’Mont Jones, linebacker Devin Bush and safety Julian Love.
- Seattle has the fifth, 18th, 38th and 53rd picks in this year’s draft to further upgrade its roster.
- The San Francisco 49ers have a better roster than Seattle, but the Seahawks could close the gap if they draft another stellar draft class like last year's.
- The Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals possess limited rosters with injury uncertainty at quarterback.
There is a chance that the Seahawks use the fifth pick to take a quarterback or, worse, they use the 18th or 38th pick to trade up with division rival Arizona to obtain the third overall pick. It’s also far from a given that Smith duplicates his level of play from last season. Those are very real concerns, but we’re also betting on an extreme long shot here.
Ultimately, the Seahawks were a playoff team last season that is positioned to add significant talent to their roster. Our five-team cluster of NFC contenders includes Seattle, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Dallas and Detroit. Each of these Seahawks lines should be set at a little less than half of where they currently are.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Super Bowl Odds: +2200 to +2800
The Jacksonville Jaguars have not brought in any new impact players in free agency, and they’ve lost edge rusher Arden Key and offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor. However, they placed a franchise tag on tight end Evan Engram, and wide receiver Calvin Ridley will return from his suspension this season, giving Jacksonville's ascending passing attack an even higher ceiling.
Jacksonville has the easiest path to a division crown in the AFC by a considerable margin. Their Super Bowl odds should be set in the 15-1 to 20-1 range. The Jaguars opened at +3000, but the shift to +2800 is still doable.
More Expensive Bets
New York Jets
Super Bowl Odds: +1400 to +1500
When the New York Jets land Aaron Rodgers, they immediately will become a Super Bowl contender. We got the Jets at +4000 in January. The problem with making a bet on the Jets today is they are currently priced as a fringe favorite in the Super Bowl market. From a value standpoint, it’s too late to bet on the Jets, especially since Rodgers hasn’t officially joined the team yet.
Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl Odds: +850 to +900
We got the Philadelphia Eagles at +1000 weeks ago, so another bet at these odds isn't enticing. That said, the Eagles have kept more of their defense intact than anticipated and they have two first-round picks to further bolster their roster. We like the Eagles' chances of returning to the Super Bowl more now than before free agency started.
Detroit Lions
Super Bowl Odds: +2500
Much like Seattle, the Detroit Lions have a top-10-caliber offense and have added significant talent to their defense through free agency. Also, like the Seahawks, the Lions have two first-round picks and two second-round picks that they can use to bolster their roster.
Detroit had +4000 odds for a brief period in January, before they were quickly driven down to +3000 in that market. It's preferable to bet on the Lions to win the conference rather than the Super Bowl, but unfortunately, they no longer have advantageous odds in those markets. Ultimately, we like the Lions, but the value is gone in these betting markets.
Uninspiring Favorite
Buffalo Bills
Super Bowl Odds: +700 to +900
Why are the Buffalo Bills 9-1 to win the Super Bowl while the Jaguars are 28-1?
Josh Allen has an extremely average supporting cast on offense outside of Stefon Diggs. Buffalo continues to lose talent on defense as well. The division is getting tougher too.
The Miami Dolphins realistically could have a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense this season. When the Jets acquire Rodgers, they also could have top-10 groups on both sides of the ball. Buffalo’s grip on the AFC East is looser heading into this season than it has been in years.
In a nutshell, Buffalo is getting worse while the AFC East and the conference are getting better. The Bills have a shot as long as they have Allen, but it's not tempting to bet on Buffalo at these odds.
Significant Odds Disparities
Miami Dolphins
Super Bowl Odds: +2000 to +2800 (FanDuel)
A primary concern with a Dolphins bet is that one could argue there are at least nine teams with a realistic path to winning the AFC. If the Dolphins were in the e odds, this would be an attractive bet. It's questionable given the competition in the AFC.
Baltimore Ravens
Super Bowl Odds: +2100 to +2800 (PointsBet)
If Lamar Jackson was absolutely going to be a Raven next year, Miami is slightly more appealing than Baltimore in this market at the same odds. The Dolphins have a better overall roster than the Ravens. Since we don’t know with any certainty where Jackson will end up, this is a complete pass.
Denver Broncos
Super Bowl Odds: +2500 to +4000 (PointsBet)
This is an odd situation, as the Denver Broncos'checklist Super Bowl odds were in the +3000 to +3500 range when we last visited this subject. Their Super Bowl odds have since moved in both directions at different sportsbooks.
Teams to Avoid
New Orleans Saints
Super Bowl Odds: +3500
The New Orleans Saints were +5000 to win the Super Bowl in February before they signed Derek Carr. We wanted to avoid them at that price, yet they’ve become a more expensive bet since. We got the line movement wrong on that one. That said, even though the Saints are a reasonable favorite to win the NFC South, we wouldn’t have any interest in a Saints Super Bowl bet if they were still 50:1.
Los Angeles Rams
Super Bowl Odds: +6000
The Rams were +3500 to win the Super Bowl when we discussed their prospects in that market over a month ago. They’ve since traded away Jalen Ramsey and there is some level of uncertainty about whether Matthew Stafford returns this season. We got the line movement right on that one, as the Rams are currently +6000 to win the Super Bowl on DraftKings.
