Analysis
2/14/23
6 min read
2024 Futures Betting: Teams to Bet on (or Avoid) to Win Super Bowl 58
Ryan Reynolds and Josh Larky examine the 2024 Super Bowl odds, detailing the bets they recommend taking on DraftKings or FanDuel, as well as ones to stay away from for next season.
In addition to the odds, the implied probability for each line is laid out. If a team has +3500 odds to win the Super Bowl, the implied probability is roughly 2.8%, and Larky and Reynolds believe their chance of actually winning is higher than that.
Teams To Bet On
Seattle Seahawks
Odds: +7000 (1.4%) on DraftKings, +6000 (1.6%) on FanDuel
Reynolds: The AFC is filled with premium quarterbacks that have a real chance of leading their team on a title run. The NFC has much less competition at the top, which makes it easier for a longshot to contend. I recently bet on the Seattle Seahawks to win the Super Bowl next season at 70:1 odds. Here’s why:
- Geno Smith is a free agent, but he just won the Comeback Player of the Year award behind shockingly impressive play this season
- Seattle has a top-10 skill group headlined by DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Kenneth Walker
- The Seahawks already have a solid offensive line that could realistically improve next season
- The Seahawks were ninth in the league in points per game last year. If they bring back Smith, Seattle has a top-10 caliber offense even if they make no additions
- Seattle has the 5th, 20th, 38th, and 53rd picks in this year’s upcoming draft
- They also have the seventh-most cap space
- Seattle is in a position to add significant talent on defense if they want
- Jamal Adams' injury situation is concerning, but if he can return to form he’s a high-caliber defensive player that’s already on the roster.
The Eagles had a better overall roster this time last year than Seattle does right now. But Philadelphia went into last offseason armed with premium draft capital despite being the NFC’s seventh seed. Seattle’s in a similar position to significantly upgrade their playoff-caliber roster. I’m a little concerned the Seahawks use the fifth overall pick as part of a trade to start over at quarterback.
They also have tough schedule draws against the AFC North and NFC East. But ultimately, Seattle’s Super Bowl odds should be in the 40:1 range. I’m also looking for Seattle to win the NFC if I can get that in the 30:1 or better range.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Odds: +2800 (3.5%) on DraftKings, +2500 (3.9%) on FanDuel
Reynolds: In our first look at potential 2024 Super Bowl bets, the Jacksonville Jaguars were our last cut, so to speak. The AFC is loaded, but out of all the teams in the conference with a premium quarterback, Jacksonville has the least resistance to their division’s crown. The Jaguars are down to +2500 on FanDuel, which means that if you want to bet on Jacksonville to win the whole thing next year, there’s some chance that +2800 on DraftKings will be your best price before opening day.
Denver Broncos
Odds: +3500 (2.8%) on FanDuel, +3000 (3.2%) on DraftKings
Larky: Russell Wilson's collapse was historic, unexpected and unlikely to fully carry over to the next season. The Denver Broncos offensive line struggled, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler and Tim Patrick all suffered injuries, Albert Okwuegbunam disappeared, Javonte Williams tore his ACL and Melvin Gordon was cut.
The defense has solid pieces, and Sean Payton should provide competency for a team that greatly needs it. The AFC West is loaded, but the Broncos have the potential to field a complete roster without many glaring holes ahead of next season.
Detroit Lions
Odds: +3000 (3.2%) on DraftKings, +2500 (3.9%) on FanDuel
Reynolds: FanDuel had not yet released 2024 Super Bowl odds the first time we tackled this subject. Now they have, and the Detroit Lions are +2500 on that platform. Detroit and Seattle are my two favorite NFC longshots, by a considerable margin.
Kansas City Chiefs
Odds: +600 (14.3%) on DraftKings and FanDuel
Larky: The Kansas City Chiefs have five straight AFC Conference Championship appearances. They've made it to three of the past four Super Bowls, winning two of them. This past season, they showcased that even with Patrick Mahomes' expensive contract and depleted surrounding talent, they can still get the job done. It's strange to recommend the favorite, but I'd expect this line to close in the +450 to +500 range.
Massive Odds-Disparity Teams
Reynolds: The Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts are all +28000 (0.4%) on FanDuel. Yet, the Cardinals and Colts are +10000 (1.0%), while the Texans are +15000 (0.7%) on DraftKings. I don’t have any interest in these options, but there's a massive odds disparity between these sportsbooks to make note of.
Teams To Avoid
Los Angeles Rams
Odds: +3500 (2.8%) on DraftKings, +3000 (3.2%) on FanDuel
Larky: The Los Angeles Rams went 5-12 this past season, scoring the fewest points among all NFC teams. They have an aging roster, no offensive line, a quarterback in Matthew Stafford who battled injuries this past season, and no first-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. Yet, they have the sixth-highest Super Bowl odds among NFC teams on DraftKings, and the fifth-highest on FanDuel.
Baltimore Ravens
Odds: +2200 (4.4%) on DraftKings, +1600 (5.9%) on FanDuel
Larky: Their current odds already price in Jackson staying in Baltimore, and then some. I'm not interested in the Ravens when the Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers will all field competent rosters next year. If the Ravens lose Jackson, it could be a disastrous season.
New Orleans Saints
Odds: +5000 (2.0%) on DraftKings, +3500 (2.8%) on FanDuel
Larky: The New Orleans Saints are in cap space hell and have no first-round pick in the upcoming draft. There's no chance they land a premier quarterback like Rodgers or Jackson, yet they're priced as if they have a chance. The roster is aging, and Chris Olave is the only valuable piece on offense.
