Betting
1/24/23
7 min read
Way Too Early 2024 Super Bowl Bets
Below, you'll find five 2024 Super Bowl bets Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds believe are solid options, given their current odds. They will also outline four teams they have minimal interest in betting on.
Neither of us is in a big hurry to tie up large amounts of money for the next full calendar year. That said, there are a number of interesting options worth discussing, and sprinkling a small portion of your bankroll on.
All lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook and can be accessed by going to the NFL menu, followed by the Team Futures tab. You'll see these 2024 options directly below the 2023 Super Bowl section with the Chiefs, Bengals, Eagles and 49ers.
In addition to the odds, we'll also lay out the implied probability for each line. If a team has +4000 odds to win the Super Bowl, the implied probability is roughly 2.4%, and we believe their chance of actually winning is higher than that.
Teams We Like
Philadelphia Eagles
Odds: +1000 (9.1%)
- Larky: The Eagles have a stacked roster all around, with a young offense that will mostly remain together for next season. Jalen Hurts on a rookie deal, with an elite skill position group (A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert) and an above-average offensive line headlines this team. On defense, most of the key starters are under contract for at least next season. Looking at the division, Dak Prescott’s base salary goes from $1.6 million to $31 million next year. The Giants need to pay Daniel Jones this offseason, and the Commanders currently have Sam Howell atop the depth chart. The Eagles are set up to win their division again, and this is the best roster in the NFC.
- Reynolds: I like the Eagles' odds relative to the 49ers (+700) and the Cowboys (+1200). This year is probably Philadelphia's best shot with Hurts, but they’ll still enter the 2023 season with an MVP-capable quarterback and one of the better rosters in the league.
Los Angeles Chargers
Odds: +2200 (4.4%)
- Larky: Next season will be the final year of Justin Herbert’s rookie deal. Assuming the team can finally stay healthy, this is a top-5 roster on paper. Add a speedy WR in the draft, and more depth in the secondary, and this team has virtually no holes.
- Reynolds: The AFC is loaded, but the Chargers have a premium quarterback and one of the better rosters in the league. If they can put it all together, they have the raw materials to go on a run.
Detroit Lions
Odds: +3000 (3.2%)
- Reynolds: The Lions were +4000 earlier today, so I have less interest in them at this number. But they are a well-coached team with a high-performing offense in a winnable NFC. I’d prefer to bet on Detroit to win the conference, so I’ll be looking for those lines to be released.
- Larky: The Lions are worth mentioning because of their stacked offense, young defense, and gritty mentality as a team. I’d monitor them until they return to the +4000 range, but this team can absolutely make noise, even with Jared Goff at quarterback. The Vikings only won the division due to their record in one-score games, the Packers may lose Aaron Rodgers, and the Bears are still at least two years away. This division is Detroit’s to lose at this point in the calendar year.
New York Jets
Odds: +4000 (2.4%)
- Larky: The Jets have an elite defense, along with an above-average, young skill position group. Airdrop Derek Carr or Rodgers into this offense, and they’re a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Even a Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, or Jimmy Garoppolo type should cement them as a wild-card favorite. Remember, this team nearly made the playoffs with Zach Wilson starting more than half of their games, and he likely never starts on opening day for the rest of his career.
- Reynolds: The Jets are a quarterback away from being a dangerous team. If they can trade for Rodgers, their Super Bowl odds move to the +800 to +1200 range. If they get Carr, I expect this line to move to the +2000 to +2500 range. The Jets can win their division, so I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled for those lines when they are released.
>> Read: Jets Are "Absolutely" in Veteran QB Market
Cleveland Browns
Odds: +4500 (2.2%)
- Larky: This one almost feels gross to write about, but the roster here is quite good. The X-factor is Deshaun Watson. He was on a Hall of Fame track through his first four years in the league before missing all of the 2021 season and looking like a shell of himself in 2022. His rust can easily be explained by his nearly two-year absence, and Watson will still only be 27 years old at the start of next season. It’s easy to see Watson rebounding into the elite tier of quarterbacks, and if we knew 2020 Watson was on this Browns' roster, these odds would be closer to +2000.
- Reynolds: If Watson can return to form, Cleveland has a talented roster that can win games in multiple styles. I agree with Josh this team would have +2000 Super Bowl odds with the 2020 version of Watson.
Teams We Don’t Like
Buffalo Bills
Odds: +550 (15.4%)
- Larky: Next season will be the first for Josh Allen on his contract extension, and his already suspect supporting cast likely won’t get much better on offense with less cap room. The defense is fine, but lacking star talent. I view the Chiefs, Bengals and Eagles as superior rosters, so I’ll pass on the Bills and their league-high Super Bowl odds for next season.
- Reynolds: I’ve been saying negative things about Allen’s supporting cast on offense all year. The Bills' best shot was in 2021, so I definitely don’t want to pay a premium heading into 2023.
San Francisco 49ers
Odds: +700 (12.5%)
- Larky: The 49ers may start Trey Lance at quarterback, and I have a tough time betting on a team without an answer at the league’s most important position, particularly when they’re the NFC favorite at this stage of the game.
- Reynolds: The 49ers aren’t a cross-off for me, but 7:1 odds are too expensive given their quarterback uncertainty heading into next season.
>> Read: Brock Purdy Has Earned 49ers' Permanent QB Job
Dallas Cowboys
Odds: +1200 (7.7%)
- Larky: Prescott’s base salary jumps from $1.6 million to $31 million next season. This team was clearly at least a full tier below the Eagles this past season, and the offensive weapons are extremely dicey beyond CeeDee Lamb, with Michael Gallup underperforming, and Tony Pollard and Dalton Schultz set to be free agents.
- Reynolds: I had a Cowboys Super Bowl ticket in 2021. That was their year. Dallas bled talent last off-season, and they are in a position to do so again this off-season. Their Super Bowl odds should be closer to 20:1, where I’d still have little to no interest.
New Orleans Saints
Odds: +5000 (2.0%)
- Larky: The Saints have no quarterback, an aging defense, a suspect offensive line and minimal skill position talent. This could very well be the league’s oldest roster, and they are without their 2023 first-round pick. I see no path to the Saints winning a Super Bowl next year.
- Reynolds: The Saints don’t have a solution at quarterback. I’d rather bet on the Vikings at this 50:1 price.
We hope you enjoyed this early look at 2024 Super Bowl bets. As always, please bet responsibly.
