Analysis
11/4/23
9 min read
2023 NFL Week 9 Betting Preview for Every Game
I’ve watched every snap of every NFL game since 2014 because I bet on football in a variety of ways. ATS tournaments, as well as survivor and winner pools, are among my favorites. Those contests don’t usually lock until the weekend, so we should make our final decisions as late as possible.
In this article, I’ll discuss how I treat various situations in each format. I’ll also provide updates on line movement, along with notes on every game every week. I’ll even sprinkle in the occasional daily fantasy stance.
Be sure to keep up to date on injuries with Ari Meirov’s Injury Report Tracker.
Dolphins vs. Chiefs (Germany)
Spread: Chiefs -2
Total: 50
The spread for this contest has moved from Chiefs -2.5 to Chiefs -2. The total has fallen from 51 to 50 points. I will play the Chiefs coming off a loss in at least one ATS tournament entry.
Winner Pools: Expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be used in roughly 60 percent of winner pool entries. I’ll be in line with the consensus on this matchup, but if I were in just one winner pool, I’d play the Chiefs.
Survivor Pools: I’m completely avoiding this contest in survivor.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Miami Dolphins 24
Rams at Packers
Spread: Packers -3
Total: 38.5
The spread for this contest opened as Green Bay Packers -1.5 but quickly moved to Packers -3. The total has fallen from 40 to 38.5 points. Matthew Stafford is a game-time decision because of an injury to his throwing hand. If Stafford misses this contest, I will play the Packers in ATS tournaments.
Winner Pools: The status of Stafford determines how this game should be played. If Stafford were completely healthy, I’d be Los Angeles Rams heavy. If he’s out, I’ll play the Packers in all my winner pools. If he plays through this injury, I’ll treat this game as more of an even split.
Survivor Pools: If Stafford misses this contest, the Packers warrant consideration as an aggressive survivor pool play.
Score Prediction with Stafford: Rams 23, Packers 17
Score Prediction without Stafford: Packers 17, Rams 6
Vikings at Falcons
Spread: -4
Total: 37.5
The spread for this contest opened as Atlanta Falcons -3.5 before moving to Falcons -4.5. Late in the week, it has settled at Falcons -4. The total has stayed at 37.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Falcons to be used in roughly 75 percent of winner pool entries. The Kirk Cousins’ injury completely changed the trajectory of the Minnesota Vikings. It also makes them a very contrarian leverage play in winner pools. If I were in just one winner pool, I’d take Atlanta. Since I play volume, I’ll be close to consensus here despite Minnesota’s quarterback volatility this week.
Survivor Pools: Since rookie Jaren Hall is starting at quarterback for Minnesota, Atlanta warrants consideration as an aggressive play. The Falcons will be my third or fourth option in the format, pending Stafford’s status.
Score Prediction: Falcons 20, Vikings 16
Seahawks at Ravens
Spread: Ravens -6
Total: 44
The spread for this contest has fluctuated between Ravens -6 and Ravens -6.5. The total has risen from 43 to 44 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Baltimore Ravens to be used in more than 85 percent of winner pools this week. My ratio will be closer to Ravens 70 percent and Seattle Seahawks 30 percent in the format. If you have just one entry, I still lean Baltimore, but the Seahawks are an interesting leverage play. If I were in a huge pool with weekly payouts, I’d play Seattle in that situation.
Survivor Pools: I’m avoiding this game in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Seahawks 17
Commanders at Patriots
Spread: Patriots -2.5
Total: 41
The spread for this contest has moved from Patriots -3.5 to Patriots -2.5. The total has stayed at 41 points.
Winner Pools: Expect a near-even split between the New England Patriots and Washington Commanders entries this week. I’ll be slightly Patriots heavy with my entries, and I’d go with New England if I were in just one pool.
Survivor Pools: I’m avoiding this contest in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Commanders 20
Buccaneers at Texans
Spread: Texans -3
Total: 40
The spread for this contest has moved from Texans -2.5 to Texans -3. The total has stayed at 40 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Houston Texans to be used in roughly 55 percent of winner pools. I will play the Texans in approximately 75 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: I’m avoiding this contest in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Texans 20, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
Cardinals at Browns
Spread: Browns -10
Total: 38.5
The spread for this contest has moved from as low as Browns -7.5 up to its current mark of Browns -10. The total has risen from 37.5 to 38.5 points. Deshaun Watson returns to action this week, which is behind the line movement in this matchup.
Winner Pools: Watson is in for the Cleveland Browns, but we don’t yet know if Kyler Murray or Clayton Tune will start for the Arizona Cardinals. Expect the Browns to be used in more than 90 percent of winner pool entries. If Murray starts, I will play the Browns in roughly 75 percent of my winner pool entries. If Tune starts, I will play Cleveland in all of my entries.
Survivor Pools: The Browns will be very popular in survivor this week. If Tune starts, it will take an extremely abnormal game for Cleveland to lose. If Murray plays, the Cardinals have more paths to victory. That said, this Browns’ defense is a brutal opponent for any quarterback, not to mention one making their first start of the season.
Score Prediction: Browns 20, Cardinals 10 (Updated from Thursday’s Expert Picks with the Watson news)
Bears at Saints
Spread: Saints -8.5
Total: 41
The spread in this contest has moved from Saints -7.5 to Saints -8.5 late in the week. The total has fluctuated between 41.5 and 41 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the New Orleans Saints to be used in roughly 90 percent of winner pool entries. Justin Fields is currently doubtful. Unless that changes, I will use the Saints in all my entries. If Fields plays, I’ll scale back to roughly 80 percent Saints.
Survivor Pools: This is a tough week where the Saints and Browns are the two biggest favorites on the slate.
Score Prediction: Saints 24, Chicago Bears 13
Colts at Panthers
Spread: Panthers +2.5
Total: 44
The spread and total for this contest haven’t changed outside of minor fluctuations all week.
Winner Pools: Expect the Indianapolis Colts to be used in roughly 80 percent of entries. The Carolina Panthers were a strong stance of mine in the format last week, and I’m going to be heavy on them again this week. If I had one entry, I’d use the Panthers as a leverage play.
Survivor Pools: I’m avoiding this game in survivor.
Score Prediction: Panthers 23, Colts 20
Cowboys at Eagles
Spread: Eagles -3
Total: 47
The spread for this contest has stayed at Eagles -3 all week. The total has risen from 46 to 47 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be used in roughly 80 percent of entries. In situations like this, where a supremely talented team will be used in the overwhelming majority of entries, I tend to veer contrarian. I think the Eagles will win this game, but I will only use them in roughly 60 percent of my entries.
Survivor Pools: I’m avoiding this game in survivor.
Score Prediction: Eagles 24, Dallas Cowboys 21
Giants at Raiders
Spread: Raiders -1.5
Total: 37.5
The spread for this contest opened as Raiders -2.5, but it slid to Raiders -1.5 late in the week. The total has stayed at 37.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Las Vegas Raiders to be used in roughly 70 percent of entries. One of my biggest stances of the week is that I’ll use the New York Giants in nearly all of my entries as long as Daniel Jones plays.
Survivor Pools: I considered using the Giants as an ultra-aggressive play, but I will ultimately pass on this contest in survivor.
Score Prediction: Giants 20, Raiders 17
Bills at Bengals
Spread: Bengals -2
Total: 50.5
The spread on this contest has moved from Bengals -2.5 to Bengals -2. The total has risen from 48.5 to 50.5 points.
Winner Pools: Expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be used in roughly 65 percent of entries. I’m going to stay in line with the field on this matchup. If you decided to treat this as a 50/50 game or use the Buffalo Bills in your only entry, I wouldn’t go out of my way to talk you out of that.
Survivor Pools: I’m avoiding this contest in survivor pools.
Score Prediction: Bengals 27, Bills 24
Chargers at Jets
Spread: Jets +3
Total: 40
The spread in this contest has moved from Jets +3 to Jets +3.5. The total has moved from 41.5 to 40 points. I will take the Chargers in ATS tournaments where I can get them at -3 or better.
Winner Pools: Expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be used in roughly 60 percent of entries. I will use the Chargers in nearly all of mine.
Survivor Pools: Despite being very heavy on the Chargers in winner pools, I will avoid this game in survivor.
Score Prediction: Chargers 17, New York Jets 13
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Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. He has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
