Analysis
10/26/23
8 min read
2023 NFL Week 8 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Christian Kirk Receiving Bet
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
We’ll also link the picks articles here from Racz (Underdog). Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
Top Week 8 Player Props
Christian Kirk OVER 53.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -110 on BetMGM
Christian Kirk has been over this number in five of his past six games. Last year, he was 10-7 on the over. It looks like a solid line at face value, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are an elite matchup for slot receivers like Kirk. Eighty-three percent of his routes are from the slot, and the Steelers have given up the most fantasy points per game to slot receivers this season.
Looking only at slot reps against Pittsburgh this year, we have eight players in only six games (the Steelers had a Week 6 bye) with at least 54 yards(purely from the slot): Nico Collins (166), Puka Nacua (132), Brandon Aiyuk (100), Davante Adams (85), Jakobi Meyers (70), Mark Andrews (56), Deebo Samuel (55) and Zay Flowers (54).
I expect this line to move closer to 60 yards by Sunday's kickoff. Analysis was done with our free and flagship tool, The Edge. I also took Kirk 75+ yards at +235 odds on Bet365. I’m waiting on other books to release alt lines, and would take Kirk to reach 75 yards up to +250 odds in this matchup.
Bet by: Larky
Za'Darius Smith (CLE) UNDER 3.5 tackles + assists
Best odds: +120 on Draftkings, Bet365 & Caesars
Za'Darius Smith has gone under this total in five out of six games so far this season and also went under this total in 12 out of 16 games last year. On the season, he currently has a 4.5 percent tackle rate and ranks third on his own team in total tackles (10 in six games) at the edge position behind Myles Garrett and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo. The Seattle Seahawks rank 25th in tackles allowed to edge players this year at 7.5 total per game. My model has this going under around 79 percent of the time.
Bet by: Patrick H.
Isiah Pacheco OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on BetMGM
This line is -120 or higher on other sportsbooks already. Isiah Pacheco has led Chiefs running backs in routes run in all seven games. Running backs vs. Denver have the third-most receiving yards per game, via our free and flagship tool, The Edge.
Eleven running backs have gone over 15.5 receiving yards vs. Denver this season through only seven games, and at least one back has done it in every game against Denver this year, too.
Bet by: Larky
Jaylen Warren OVER 3.5 Receptions
Best Odds: +145 on DraftKings
Jaylen Warren has been over this number in four of his past five games. He has at least three targets in four of his past five games, too. +145 odds imply this type of bet needs to hit 41 percent of the time long-term to make money, and my research is pointing me towards this hitting at least 50 percent of the time.
Warren is averaging 3.7 receptions per game this year. He’s 3-3 on this line. Week 7 saw him hit season-lows in routes (seven) and targets (two). However, that was against the Rams, who allow the second-fewest receiving yards per game and eighth-fewest receptions per game to running backs.
He now gets the Jacksonville Jaguars, whose defensive front has Josh Allen and Travon Walker. The Jaguars are pressuring quarterbacks at the 12th-highest rate (36 percent of dropbacks), forcing running back checkdowns. The Jaguars have allowed the most receptions per game to running backs (7.3). Five running backs have at least five receptions vs. Jacksonville this season through seven games. Three other backs have three receptions against the Jaguars.
Bet by: Larky
Tony Pollard Longest Rec UNDER 12.5
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Tony Pollard is 3-3 on this number – But the Los Angeles Rams have only allowed one running back reception of 13 or more yards through six games. Of all people, it wasn't Christian McCaffrey, D'Andre Swift, Najee Harris or Kenneth Walker.
It was DeeJay Dallas. In 28 RB targets against this defense, there has been just one reception longer than 12.5 yards, and it was to Dallas on a play where he lined up out wide.
Pollard has exactly 12 routes, one reception and three receiving yards lined up out wide this season.
Pollard's three receptions of 13+ yards totaled 105 total yards, but 97 of those yards came from YAC. He wouldn’t have had these long receptions without the YAC.
It’s notable because the Rams are allowing the second-fewest YAC/Rec to the running back position. Also, teams are passing to their running backs vs the Rams at the eighth-lowest rate.
Bet by: Wolby
Marquise Brown OVER 50.5 Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Marquise Brown is 4-3 on this number with one loss being a game where he had 49 yards. His elite 27 percent team target share ranks 13th behind Zay Flowers, which brings me to my next point: I’m going to buy into the revenge game narrative here for a few reasons.
First, Brown is playing against his former team, the team that took him first-round
Second, QB Josh Dobbs’ playing time is coming to a close and he’ll motivated to leave it all out on the field
Third, since James Conner’s injury, Dobb’s is averaging seven more attempts per game.
The number one targeted receiver against the Baltimore Ravens is over in five of seven. The two losses were Amari Cooper in the game Dorian Thompson-Robinson was thrown in an hour ahead of kickoff, and the other being Nick Westbroke-Ikhine in the game Ryan Tannehill left with an injury, replaced by Malik Willis.
Bet By: Wolby
Bryce Young's Longest Completion UNDER 33.5 Yards
Best Odds: -120 on DraftKings
Bryce Young doesn’t have a single completion this long all season. His longest completion came in Week 5 against the Detroit Lions; a 30-yard completion with 15 yards after the catch.
What’s notable is that the Houston Texans have allowed the fewest completions of 33 or longer, just three, and those throws averaged 34 air yards and eight YAC.
From the air yards standpoint, Young’s longest completion by air yards is just 22 yards, which is 10 yards shorter than this line and the eight YAC still doesn't put him above the 33 yards required.
Alternatively, Carolina pass catchers are averaging 4.2 YAC per reception, which is the fourth fewest in the NFL.
Young hasn’t had an air yard pass that would cash this over, and he hasn’t had the YAC from his receivers to cash this over, and given this defense allowing the fewest completions of this long, I’ll take the under and hold my breath.
Bet By: Wolby
Derek Carr Over 235.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Derek Carr has thrown for 300 yards three times this year and in each of the last two weeks. Before that, he had three games below 200 yards. The first, he left early with a throwing shoulder injury. The next two, he played through said throwing shoulder injury. Two weeks ago against Houston, he looked better. The Indianapolis Colts are giving up 253 passing yards per game.
Bet by: Reynolds
Desmond Ridder Over 219.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
This is primarily a bet against the Titans' Kevin Byard-less secondary. The Atlanta Falcons' offensive line should be able to mitigate the Titans' defensive front. Desmond Ridder has beat this number in four of seven games, including each of the last three. The Tennessee Titans are giving up 256 passing yards per game.
Bet by: Reynolds
DeVonta Smith Over 51.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
This is a regression play. The Washington Commanders are giving up the second-most receiving yards to wide receivers this year. When they played in Week 4, DeVonta Smith had seven receptions for 78 yards on nine targets. Smith’s catch rate has been abnormally low in two of the last three games.
Bet by: Reynolds
Austin Ekeler OVER 31.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
This line has already moved up to 34.5 yards on FanDuel. This is a bet Ryan Reynolds, Ben Wolby and I have been waiting for. The Bears are allowing just 3.5 yards per carry to running backs (fourth-lowest in the NFL). Yet, they've struggled to defend running backs in the passing game, allowing 56 receiving yards per game to RBs (second-highest) via our free and flagship tool, The Edge.
Ekeler himself has at least 35 receiving yards in two of his three games this year, and Josh Palmer didn't practice Wednesday/Thursday before being limited on Friday. Palmer may not be 100 percent for this game against Chicago, which would funnel more opportunities Ekeler’s way.
Bet by: Larky
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