Analysis
10/7/23
11 min read
2023 NFL Week 5 Betting Preview for Every Game
Things constantly change in the NFL. Injuries, and sometimes weather, can dramatically affect how a game will play out. Once the Friday injury report is in, we’ll take an updated look at every game from a betting perspective.
We’ll provide updates on line movement and notes on every game every week. Ryan will also discuss how he’s treating various situations in winner pools, survivor pools and ATS tournaments. He’ll even sprinkle in the occasional daily fantasy stance.
In this column, the Circa Sports Million V Pro Football Contest will be referred to as Circa and DraftKings Pick'Em as DraftKings.
Be sure to check out Ari Meirov’s Injury Report Tracker.
Late Week Betting Previews
Jaguars at Bills (London)
Spread: Bills -5.5
Total: 48.5
The spread for this contest has bounced around from Buffalo Bills -5 to its current mark of Bills -5.5. Circa has this game as Bills -5, while DraftKings has Bills -5.5. I will take the Jaguars in at least one of my DraftKings ATS tournament entries.
Expect Buffalo to be used in more than 90 percent of winner pools in this matchup. I’m closer to a 65:35 Bills-heavy ratio over all of my winner pool entries. If I was in just one winner pool, I would strongly consider taking the Jacksonville Jaguars as a very aggressive leverage play. I’m avoiding this contest completely in Survivor.
Notes
- The Jaguars are the first NFL team to play two games overseas in the same season.
- Jacksonville stayed in London after their game with the Falcons last week.
- Josh Allen is the current MVP favorite.
- The Jaguars have given up the third-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Giants at Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -12.5
Total: 47.5
The line for this contest opened as Miami Dolphins -10.5 and has gradually been steamed to Dolphins -12.5. Circa and DraftKings have this game set as Dolphins -11.5.
Expect Miami to be used in nearly all winner pools in this matchup. I will take the Dolphins in each of my winner pools. They will be a popular pick in survivor pools, and they should be. It will take a genuine catastrophe for this team to lose to the New York Giants. Check out Miami’s next-best matchups in survivor pools here.
Notes
- The Giants have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs.
- The Dolphins have given up the ninth-most rushing yards and seventh-most receiving yards to running backs.
- Saquon Barkley is trending toward missing this contest.
- Miami has surrendered the 10th-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- New York has given up the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Panthers at Lions
Spread: Lions -9.5
Total: 44
The spread for this contest opened as Detroit Lions -9.5. It then moved to Lions -10 before sliding back down to Lions -9.5. Circa has this game set as Lions -10, while DraftKings has Lions -9.5.
Expect the team to be used in nearly all winner pools in this matchup. I will be Detroit-heavy myself. However, I will take the winless Carolina Panthers with at least one of my entries as an extremely aggressive leverage play.
Just like Miami, Detroit will be a popular pick in survivor pools, and the team should be. That said, the Lions have a number of relevant players on their injury report.
It would be less of a surprise if the Lions lost to the Panthers than if Miami lost to the Giants. This is Detroit’s best matchup in the format, but they have two other solid options.
If my stance changes on this contest due to Detroit's various injuries, I’ll discuss it in our Free Discord.
Notes
- The Panthers have allowed the third-most rushing yards to running backs.
- Detroit has given up the most receiving yards to tight ends.
- Check the Lions’ injury report before making any final decisions on this matchup.
Ravens at Steelers
Spread: Steelers +4.5
Total: 38
The spread for this contest has fluctuated between Pittsburgh Steelers +4 and Steelers +4.5. Circa has this game as Steelers +4, while DraftKings has Steelers +3.5.
Lamar Jackson has struggled against Pittsburgh, so this will be a Steelers or pass game for me. I will likely pass because you’re betting Pittsburgh at a bad value in most ATS tournaments.
Expect Baltimore to be used in nearly 85 percent of winner pool entries. My ratio for this game will be closer to Baltimore Ravens 70 percent and Pittsburgh Steelers 30 percent. If I was only in one winner pool, I would stick with Baltimore because you can get different in a number of other games. This matchup should be avoided in survivor pools.
Notes
- The Steelers have allowed the second-most rushing yards to running backs.
- Pittsburgh has given up the fourth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- Both teams have a number of relevant players on the injury report this week.
Texans at Falcons
Spread: Falcons -1.5
Total: 41.5
The spread for this contest has fluctuated between Atlanta Falcons -1.5 and Falcons -2. Circa has this matchup as Falcons -1.5, while DraftKings has Falcons -2.5.
Expect the Houston Texans to be used in more than 60 percent of winner pool entries. My winner pool ratio will be the opposite; I’ll be a little Falcons-heavy. If I had only one winner pool entry, I’d slightly lean toward taking the Falcons. This contest should be avoided entirely in survivor pools.
Notes
- The Falcons played in London last week.
- The Falcons have given up the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
- Atlanta has a very clean injury report.
Saints at Patriots
Spread: Patriots -1
Total: 39
The spread for this contest has bounced around between New England Patriots -1 and Patriots -1.5. Circa set this game as a pick’em, while DraftKings has Patriots -1.5.
Expect this matchup to have close to a 50:50 ratio in winner pools. My ratio will be closer to New Orleans Saints 65 percent, Patriots 35 percent, primarily because of some of New England’s injuries on defense. If I only had one winner pool entry, I would take the Saints. This contest should be avoided entirely in survivor pools.
Notes
- Derek Carr is playing through an injury on his throwing shoulder.
- The loss of Matthew Judon significantly reduces the Patriots’ pass rush.
Titans at Colts
Spread: Colts +2.5
Total: 43.5
This spread has seen significant line movement as it opened as Indianapolis Colts -1 and has since been driven to Colts +2.5. Circa has this game as Colts +1.5, while DraftKings has Colts -.5. I will take the Tennessee Titans in at least one of my DraftKings ATS tournament entries.
Expect both teams to see nearly 50-50 deployments in winner pools; I will be Titans-heavy in the format, likely near the 65 percent mark. If I was in one winner pool, I would take Tennessee. I will avoid this matchup in Survivor, but I expect to be overweight on DeAndre Hopkins in DFS tournaments.
Notes
- The Titans have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- The Colts have given up the seventh-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- Indianapolis has surrendered the seventh-most receiving yards to tight ends.
- Both defenses have a trench advantage in this matchup.
Eagles at Rams
Spread: Rams +4
Total: 50.5
The spread for this contest opened as Los Angeles Rams +5 but quickly moved to its current mark of Rams +4. Circa has this matchup set as Rams +4, while DraftKings has it as Rams +4.5.
Expect the Philadelphia Eagles to be taken in at least 80 percent of winner pool entries. I will take Philadelphia in roughly 95 percent of my winner pool entries. I’m going to avoid this contest in survivor pools altogether.
Notes
- The Eagles have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- Philadelphia has given up the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
- The Eagles have a trench advantage on both sides of the ball.
Bengals at Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals +3
Total: 44.5
The spread for this contest opened at Arizona Cardinals +3.5 at some sportsbooks but quickly moved to Cardinals +3. Circa has this matchup set as Cardinals +3, while DraftKings has Cardinals +2.5.
Expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be used in roughly 65 percent of winner pool entries. I will be a little more Bengals-heavy than the field, and they are who I’d play if I was only in one winner pool. I’m avoiding this contest in Survivor, but I expect to be overweight on Joe Mixon in DFS tournaments.
Notes
- The Bengals have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs.
- Arizona has given up the 10th-most rushing yards and the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs.
- Cincinnati has surrendered the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Chiefs at Vikings
Spread: Vikings +3.5
Total: 53
The spread for this contest opened as Minnesota Vikings +5 but has since been driven to Vikings +3.5. Circa has this game as Vikings +4, while DraftKings has Vikings +4.5. I will take the Vikings in at least one of my DraftKings ATS tournament entries.
Expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be used in roughly 90 percent of winner pool entries this week. My ratio will be closer to 70 percent Chiefs and 30 percent Vikings. If I was only in one winner pool and wanted to be aggressive in one game, I’d take that stand with the Vikings. I’m avoiding this contest in survivor pools. I want multiple shares of this matchup in DFS, but I expect to be higher than the field on T.J. Hockenson.
Notes
- The Vikings have given up the third-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- Kansas City has allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Jets at Broncos
Spread: Broncos -2.5
Total: 43.5
This spread has bounced around from Denver Broncos -1 to Broncos -2.5. Circa set this contest as Broncos -2, while DraftKings has it as Broncos -2.5. I will take the New York Jets in at least one of my DraftKings ATS tournament entries.
Expect the Jets and Broncos to be used in a nearly 50-50 ratio in winner pools. My ratio will be closer to 70 percent Jets and 30 percent Broncos. If I was only in one winner pool, I’d take the Jets. I’m completely avoiding this contest in survivor pools.
Notes
- Denver has allowed the most rushing yards and the second-most receiving yards to running backs.
- The Jets have given up the seventh-most rushing yards and the eighth-most receiving yards to running backs.
- The Broncos have surrendered the eighth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- New York has allowed the second-most receiving yards to tight ends.
- Denver has given up the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Cowboys at 49ers
Spread: 49ers -3.5
Total: 45
The spread for this marquee matchup has sat at San Francisco 49ers -3.5 all week. Circa and DraftKings have this matchup set as 49ers -3.5.
Expect San Francisco to be used in at least 85 percent of winner pool entries. I will be 49ers-heavy in winner pools, but my ratio will be closer to 70 percent 49ers and 30 percent Dallas Cowboys. While I think San Francisco likely wins this game, Dallas is a strong leverage option in this format. I’m completely avoiding this contest in survivor pools.
Notes
- Both these teams have top-five caliber pass rushes.
- Dallas could have its entire starting offensive line play together for the first time in over a year.
- Christian McCaffrey is the current Offensive Player of the Year favorite.
Packers at Raiders
Spread: Raiders -2.5
Total: 44.5
This contest has had major line movement from Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 to Raiders -2.5. Circa has this matchup set as Raiders +1, while DraftKings has Raiders +2.5. I will take the Raiders in at least one of my ATS tournament entries on DraftKings.
Expect the Green Bay Packers to be used in roughly 70 percent of winner pool entries. My ratio will be the opposite: I will take the Raiders in approximately 70 percent of my winner pools. I’m completely avoiding this contest in survivor pools. I will, however, play this game in showdown.
Notes
- Green Bay has allowed the fifth-most rushing and receiving yards to running backs.
- Las Vegas has given up the eighth-most rushing yards to running backs.
- Green Bay has a number of starting offensive linemen on the injury report.
Want to discuss one of the games on the Week 5 slate? Join our Free Discord.
Ryan Reynolds is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. He has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow him @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
