Analysis
9/23/23
16 min read
2023 NFL Week 3 Betting Preview for Every Game
Things constantly change in the NFL. Injuries, sometimes weather can dramatically impact how a game will play out. Once the Friday injury report is in, we’ll take an updated look at every game from a betting perspective.
We’ll provide updates on line movement and notes on every game every week. Ryan will also discuss how he’s treating various situations in winner pools, survivor pools and ATS tournaments. He’ll even sprinkle in the occasional daily fantasy stance.
Keep up to date on injuries with Ari Meirov's Injury Tracker.
Late Week Betting Previews
Patriots vs. Jets 
Spread: Jets +2.5
Total: 36
Late this week, the spread for this contest moved from Jets +3 to Jets +2.5. That’s where it has settled for most major ATS tournaments. Ryan will play Patriots -2.5 in at least one of his ATS tournament entries this week.
The New York Jets lost two one-score games to the New England Patriots last year. Zach Wilson was New York’s quarterback in both of those matchups. Wilson threw for 355 passing yards in the first contest but just 77 in the second.
New England is being used in at least 60 percent of winner pools on this slate. Ryan will be a little heavier on the Patriots than that. There is no reason to take either of these teams in survivor pools this week.
Notes
- The 36-point game total for this contest is the lowest on the Week 3 slate.
- The Patriots have allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to running backs.
- The Jets have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to running backs.
- Hunter Henry is third among tight ends in receptions and second in receiving yards.
Lions vs. Falcons 
Spread: Lions -3
Total: 46.5
Early this week, the spread for this contest was Lions -4, but it dipped down to Lions -3 on Tuesday. Circa Sports Million V has Lions -3, while it’s Lions -3.5 on DraftKings Pick’Em. All spreads in DraftKings Pick’Em contests come with a half-point, so there are no ties. If you like Atlanta this week, you get an important value in DraftKings’ ATS tournament.
In winner pools, the Detroit Lions are being used in at least 75 percent of entries on multiple platforms. That makes the Atlanta Falcons an interesting leverage play in large-field winner pools with weekly payouts. For Ryan’s winner pool entries, his ratio will be closer to an even split. There are a ton of strong survivor options on the Week 3 slate, so avoid this game in that format.
Notes
- Detroit has the fourth-most passing yards and total yards this season. Atlanta has the third-most rushing yards.
- The Lions' offensive line is down two starters, reducing that premium group.
- The Falcons have allowed the third-fewest yards this season.
- Tyler Allgeier is ninth in the league in rushing attempts, while Bijan Robinson is 13th.
- Robinson leads running backs in receptions. He’s second in targets and third in receiving yards.
- The Lions are struggling against slot receivers this season.
- Kyle Pitts leads the Falcons in slot snaps.
- The Lions have allowed the most receiving yards to inline tight ends.
- Jonnu Smith has nearly twice as many inline tight end snaps as Pitts.
Commanders vs. Bills 
Spread: Commanders +6.5
Total: 43
The spread for this contest has been pretty stable all week, but the total has dipped from 44.5 points.
In winner pools, Buffalo is being used in at least 75 percent of entries on multiple platforms. Ryan expects to be even with the field, if not a little Bills heavy in winner pools. The Buffalo Bills aren’t an unreasonable survivor pool option this week, but you should check out the best matchups they have left.
Notes
- Buffalo is entering this game with a clean injury report.
- The Washington Commanders are tied for the league lead in sacks.
- Brian Robinson is fourth in the league in carries.
- Buffalo has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to running backs.
- Washington has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- The Commanders have specifically struggled against slot receivers this year.
- Rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid leads the Bills in slot snaps.
- Stefon Diggs and Dawson Knox also see significant reps out of the slot.
Jaguars vs. Texans 
Spread: Jaguars -8
Total: 44
The spread for this contest was Jaguars -9.5 earlier this week. It’s Jaguars -9 in Circa Sports Million V contest and Jaguars -9.5 on DraftKings Pick’Em. If you like the Texans, you can get them at a value in both tournaments.
The Jacksonville Jaguars will be used in nearly all winner pool entries against Houston. That alone makes the Houston Texans an aggressive leverage option. Ryan will primarily play the Jaguars in winner pools, but he’ll have Houston in roughly 10 percent of his entries as a leverage play. The Jaguars are one of many strong survivor options this week. Ryan will use Jacksonville in Survivor but plans to save them with most of his entries.
Notes
- C.J. Stroud is fourth in the league in passing yards.
- The Jaguars have given up the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
- Dalton Schultz is the Texans' primary tight end.
Ravens vs. Colts 
Spread: Ravens -8
Total: 44
The spread for this contest has fluctuated between Ravens -7.5 and Ravens -8. Circa has this line as Ravens -8, while DraftKings Pick’Em has Ravens -7.5.
The Baltimore Ravens are being used in at least 95 percent of winner pool entries across multiple platforms. Baltimore has a number of significant injuries in this contest. If Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor were active, Ryan would play the Indianapolis Colts in roughly 15 percent of his entries.
Since they aren’t, he’ll only be slightly above consensus on the Colts as a leverage play. Baltimore is one of many strong survivor options this week. The Ravens are one of the teams Ryan likes to use early in that format, so he’ll play them in a few entries. The Colts' defense is a cheap but volatile contrarian DFS option on DraftKings.
Notes
- Richardson will miss this contest, making Gardner Minshew the starter.
- The Ravens are missing several of their best players in this matchup.
- The Colts have the fifth most sacks in the league, and Baltimore will be without their two best offensive linemen.
- Lamar Jackson has been efficient, but he’s 21st in passing yards.
- The Colts have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- They’ve struggled on both the boundary and in the slot.
- Zay Flowers leads the Ravens with a 27.8 percent target share.
- The Ravens have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- Michael Pittman is fifth in the league in receptions and target share.
- Indianapolis has given up the ninth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
- Mark Andrews missed opening day but had a 24.2 percent target share last week.
Dolphins vs. Broncos 
Spread: Dolphins -6.5
Total: 48
The line for this contest has settled at Broncos -6.5 for most of this week. Both Circa and DraftKings Pick’Em have Broncos -6.5.
The Miami Dolphins are being played in at least 95 percent of winner pool entries across multiple platforms. Miami is a contender, but the Denver Broncos are a talented team that has lost two very close games. Ryan will play Denver in around 25 percent of his winner pools as a leverage play. Given the other strong options on the slate, Ryan will not use Miami in Survivor pools this week. The Broncos' defense is a cheap but volatile contrarian DFS play on DraftKings.
Notes
- The Dolphins lead the league in passing yards and total yards.
- Miami has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs.
- The Broncos have allowed the third-most receiving yards to running backs.
- Denver has struggled against receivers on the boundary.
- Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle see most of their snaps outside.
- The Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Vikings vs. Chargers 
Spread: Vikings -1
Total: 54
The spread for this contest has fluctuated between Vikings +1 and Vikings -1. Circa Sports Million V has this line set at Vikings -1, while it’s Vikings -.5 in DraftKings Pick’Em.
The Minnesota Vikings are being used in nearly 60 percent of winner pool entries on multiple platforms. Ryan will play the Los Angeles Chargers more often than the Vikings in that format. This game should be avoided entirely in survivor pools on this slate.
Notes
- The Chargers have the fifth-most total yards this season.
- The Vikings have the second-most passing yards.
- Alexander Mattison has a plus matchup against the Chargers run defense.
- The Vikings have allowed the second-most rushing yards to running backs.
- With Austin Ekeler sidelined, Josh Kelly has a big opportunity this week.
- The Chargers have allowed the most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- Los Angeles has been torched on the perimeter and in the slot.
- Minnesota has struggled against perimeter receivers this season.
- Mike Williams leads the Chargers in snaps on the perimeter.
- Josh Palmer is second, while Keenan Allen has a slot-heavy role.
Browns vs. Titans 
Spread: Browns -3.5
Total: 39
Earlier this week, the line for this game was Browns -3. It has now kicked up past the key number of -3 to Browns -3.5. Circa and DraftKings Pick’Em have the Browns -3.5.
The Cleveland Browns are only being used in the 55-60 percent range on several winner pool platforms. Ryan will play the Browns at a 65 percent or greater clip with his entries. Given the other strong options on this slate, Cleveland should be avoided in most survivor pools. If you play considerable volume in the format, then it might make sense to have a Browns entry. If you do that, do so knowing that it is a very aggressive play on a slate with many great options like this one.
Notes
- The Browns have allowed the second-fewest total yards.
- The Browns' pass rush has a significant trench advantage in this contest.
- Cleveland has run for the most yards.
- The Tennessee Titans have given up the fifth-fewest rushing yards to running backs.
- The Browns have allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs.
- The Titans have given up the third-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- Cleveland has allowed the fourth-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers.
Packers vs. Saints 
Spread: Packers -1
Total: 42.5
Early this week, the line for this matchup was Packers -2, which has fallen to Packers -1 late this week. Circa has Packers -2, while DraftKings Pick’Em has Packers -1.5.
Green Bay’s entry percentage on several winner pool platforms is around 60 percent. Ryan will have even exposure to both teams in his entries. This matchup should be avoided entirely in survivor pools.
Notes
- Jordan Love is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns with six.
- Love is 23rd in passing yards (396).
- The New Orleans Saints have allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards this season.
- New Orleans has given up the fifth-fewest total yards.
- The Green Bay Packers have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards and the second-most receiving yards to running backs.
- Alvin Kamara is still suspended, and Jamaal Williams will miss this contest.
- That leaves veteran Tony Jones and rookie Kendre Miller in the Saints backfield.
- Chris Olave is seventh in the league in receiving yards (198) and target share (30.9 percent).
Seahawks vs. Panthers 
Spread: Seahawks -5.5
Total: 42
The spread for this game has fluctuated between Seahawks -6.5 and Seahawks -5.5. Circa has Seahawks -6.5, while DraftKings Pick’Em has Seahawks -5.5. Ryan will play Seahawks -5.5 in at least one of his ATS tournament entries.
Seattle is being taken in 90 percent or more of winner pool entries on several major platforms. The Carolina Panthers are a solid leverage option, but Ryan will stay roughly even with the field here. There are a number of strong options in survivor pools this week. Seattle is volatile but very playable in that format. Ryan will play the Seattle Seahawks in roughly 20 percent of his survivor entries.
Notes
- Andy Dalton will start this contest in place of injured rookie Bryce Young.
- The Panthers have given up the tenth-most rushing yards to running backs.
- The Seahawks have allowed the second-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- Carolina has thrown for the fewest passing yards this season.
- The Seahawks have allied the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
- Hayden Hurst’s 16.1 percent target share is third on the Panthers.
Cardinals vs. Cowboys 
Spread: Cardinals +12.5
Total: 43
The line for this matchup has shifted a few times between Cardinals +12 and Cardinals +12.5. Circa Sports Millions V has Cardinals +12.5, while DraftKings Pick’Em has Cardinals +11.5. If you play multiple ATS tournaments and you like Dallas, DraftKings is the spot. Ryan will play Cowboys -11.5 in one of his ATS tournament entries.
Dallas is being used in at least 95 percent of winner pool entries across multiple platforms. Ryan will play Dallas in all of his winner pool entries. Dallas is a very strong survivor pool option that Ryan will take with a number of his entries. The Dallas Cowboys have a few attractive matchups in the middle of the season, but it’s hard to see how the Arizona Cardinals win this game.
Notes
- The Cowboys defense has given up the fewest points and yards.
- Dallas is tied for the league lead in sacks and forced turnovers.
- The Cardinals are shockingly tied for third in sacks.
- The Cowboys' pass rush has a significant trench advantage in this matchup.
- Arizona has allowed the third-most receiving yards to tight ends.
- Cowboys’ tight end Jake Ferguson is second on the team in target share (17.7 percent).
Chiefs vs. Bears 
Spread: Chiefs -12.5
Total: 48
Early this week, the line here was Chiefs -13, but it has settled at Chiefs -12.5 for several days. Circa Sports Million V has Chiefs -13, while DraftKings Pick’Em has Chiefs -12.5.
Kansas City is being used in nearly all winner pool entries. Ryan will play the Chicago Bears in just one of his entries in this format. The Kansas City Chiefs are yet another strong survivor pool option. You could argue that this is the best spot Kansas City will have all year. Ryan will use the Chiefs in some of his entries, but he’s looking to save them for late in the season in most cases. Justin Fields cannot be trusted in DFS, but he has an enormous ceiling in this matchup. Ryan expects to be at least a little above consensus on Fields in large-field DFS tournaments.
Notes
- The Bears only have one sack this season.
- The Bears have allowed the sixth-most passing yards this season.
- Chicago has surrendered the most receiving yards to running backs.
- Chicago has given up the tenth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- The Chiefs have surrendered the eighth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Raiders vs. Steelers 
Spread: Raiders -2.5
Total: 43
The spread for this contest has stabilized at Raiders -2.5 for several days. That’s where both Circa and DraftKings Pick’Em set this line. Ryan will play the Steelers in at least one of his ATS tournament entries.
The Las Vegas Raiders are being used in a little more than 50 percent of winner pool entries. Ryan will have 65 percent or more exposure to the Pittsburgh Steelers with his own winner pool entries. This matchup should be avoided in survivor pools. Ryan will discuss his showdown stances for this contest in our free discord.
Notes
- Pittsburgh is tied for third in the league in sacks.
- The Steelers have allowed the most rushing yards to running backs.
- The Raiders have allowed the third-most rushing yards and eighth-most receiving yards to running backs.
- Najee Harris leads Pittsburgh’s backfield in carries, but Jaylen Warren leads in targets.
- Las Vegas has given up the tenth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Buccaneers vs. Eagles 
Spread: Buccaneers +5
Total: 46
The spread for this matchup has stabilized at Buccaneers +5 for several days. That’s where Circa has it, while DraftKings Pick’Em has Buccaneers +4.5. Ryan will take the Eagles or pass here, but he’s leaning towards passing.
The Philadelphia Eagles are being used in 85 percent or more winner pool entries across multiple platforms. Ryan thinks the Eagles will win this game, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a good leverage option. Ryan will use the Eagles in roughly 75 percent of his winner pool entries. Given the strong options on this slate, this contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Notes
- The Eagles have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to running backs.
- Philadelphia has given up the sixth-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- Tampa Bay has surrendered the seventh-most receiving yards to wide receivers.
- The Buccaneers have struggled with boundary receivers so far this year.
- DeVonta Smith has the most snaps on the perimeter, and A.J. Brown has the fifth most.
- The Eagles have given up the second-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Bengals vs. Rams 
Spread: Bengals -2.5
Total: 43.5
The spread for this contest has bounced around all week due to Joe Burrow’s injury uncertainty. It opened at Bengals -6.5 before quickly moving to Bengals -3.5. Since then, it’s gotten as low as Bengals -1.5, then returned to Bengals -3.5. It has currently settled in between those numbers at Bengals -2.5. Circa Sports Million V has Bengals -3, while DraftKings Pick’Em has Bengals -2.5.
This game is a mess due to Burrow’s injury situation. Right now, in winner pools, the Cincinnati Bengals are being played in roughly 65 percent of entries. If you have to set your lineup before we know whether Joe Burrow is playing, the Los Angeles Rams are a very strong leverage play. In those situations, Ryan will take the Rams with all his entries. If Burrow plays, Ryan will be slightly Bengals-heavy in winner pools. This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Notes
- The Rams have the second-most total yards and the third-most passing yards.
- Los Angeles has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards to running backs.
- Cincinnati has given up the fifth-most rushing yards to running backs.
- Puka Nacua leads the league in targets (35) and receptions (25) while being second in receiving yards (266).
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Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2014 and has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
