Fantasy
11/18/23
7 min read
2023 NFL Week 11 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
Week 11 DFS Slate Analysis
Double Stacks
- Stack: QB C.J. Stroud WR Nico Collins WR Tank Dell
- Runback: RB James Conner TE Trey McBride
C.J. Stroud's recent dominance continues against the least talented defense he's faced. With the Arizona Cardinals favoring zone coverage, the Houston Texans' zone beaters — Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz — are all viable options. Collins and Dell, particularly effective on the perimeter, stand out against the Cardinals.
In a high-scoring game, targeting the Texans' passing offense while limiting Kyler Murray's ceiling is the strategy. With his rushing touchdowns and explosive plays, James Conner is key, especially after resuming a massive share of touches in his first game back. Anticipating Murray's running threat benefiting Conner and the run game, Trey McBride is a valuable bring-back, securing short-yardage touchdowns, especially against the Texans' vulnerable defense against slot tight ends.
- Stack: QB Justin Fields WR DJ Moore TE Cole Kmet
- Runback: RB Jahmyr Gibbs WR Amon-Ra St. Brown
Justin Fields returns from a thumb injury and gets a good matchup against the Detroit Lions, who struggle against running quarterbacks. Fields faces a team he ran more than 130 yards against in each game last season. Pairing him with pass catchers DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, who excel against single high coverages, maximizes upside.
The Lions struggle against pass-catching running backs and slot wide receivers. Jahmyr Gibbs, with three games of five targets, and dominant slot receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown exploit these weaknesses. Adopting a full-game stack strategy for shootout potential while finding value elsewhere on the slate.
- Stack: QB Kyler Murray WR Rondale Moore TE Trey McBride
- Runback: RB Devin Singletary WR Tank Dell
*With Michael Wilson out of the lineup, I will be going to Rondale Moore over him.*
Expect the Texans to employ a heavy dose of zone coverage against the Cardinals. Michael Wilson and McBride have been prime producers against this scheme, offering cost-effective options for a stacked lineup.
While Murray struggled with Marquise Brown against zone coverages last season, Wilson's affordability allows flexibility for a robust player lineup. McBride, targeted on 30 percent of his routes against zone coverage and averaging 2.10 yards per route run, stands out as an elite tight-end option at a reasonable price.
The Cardinals' vulnerable run defense makes Devin Singletary a key part of the runback strategy, especially with Dameon Pierce out, leaving him with an 80 percent snap share. Dell, consistently improving, and Collins are poised to capitalize on the Cardinals' defensive weaknesses, ensuring a high-level production in this game stack.
- Stack: QB Brock Purdy WR Brandon Aiyuk TE George Kittle
- Runback: WR Chris Godwin
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be doing everything they can to slow down Christian McCaffrey and the running game of the 49ers. This will leave the door open for explosive plays, and I am sure Kyle Shannahan will take things from his former colleague Bobby Slowik, Houston’s offensive coordinator.
The base coverage for the Buccaneers will be single high in this game, and in the graphic you see below, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are the top players for Brock Purdy against this look.
The runback in this game isn’t needed; Purdy and the pass catchers can perform without one. I don’t believe the 49ers will give up the big play to Mike Evans, so if I choose to run it back, it will be Chris Godwin and the idea of him finishing with a high reception total.
Mini-Stacks
- Los Angeles Chargers at Green Bay Packers
- RB Austin Ekeler TE Luke Musgrave
Austin Ekeler is in a prime opportunity, with the potential for both 100 yards rushing and receiving. The absence of Keenan Allen, along with injuries to Josh Palmer and Mike Williams, leaves Ekeler as a focal point, especially considering the Steelers' recent success running against the Green Bay Packers. Having recorded 20 or more touches in four of the last five games, Ekeler remains a somewhat overlooked option in this matchup.
A weak point for the Los Angeles Chargers has been defending tight ends, making Luke Musgrave an intriguing and affordable choice. With consecutive weeks of more than 50 yards receiving, Musgrave provides a unique mini-stack option in lineups featuring Ekeler.
- Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
- RB Tony Pollard WR Adam Thielen
The Dallas Cowboys boast a high implied total, making them a reliable pick against the Carolina Panthers. While it's challenging to fully trust Tony Pollard, the Panthers' weak run defense, coupled with Jaycee Horn's return to cover CeeDee Lamb, opens opportunities.
With Frank Reich back calling plays, Adam Thielen becomes a focal point for the Panthers. Given the Cowboys' preference for man coverage, Thielen's ability to produce against it stands out. Other players may struggle to separate against the Cowboys' defense.
- Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
- RB Zach Charbonnet WR Puka Nacua
Zach Charbonnet's increased field time surpassing Kenneth Walker for three consecutive weeks is noteworthy. The Los Angeles Rams, yielding the fifth-highest adjusted yards before contact, often present a lightbox on 42.7 percent of rushing attempts.
Charbonnet's 5.8 yards per carry in a lightbox outshines Walker's 4.3. With Tyler Lockett likely in the lineup, expect frequent three-wide receiver sets, providing favorable conditions for Charbonnet to excel.
The Seattle Seahawks struggle against balanced formations, conceding 8.6 yards per passing attempt. The Rams deploy such formations at a high rate, with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua targeted on over 30 percent of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks. Favoring Nacua due to pricing and efficiency, he stands out as a valuable option on a slate lacking in value.
One-Offs
- Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins, with an implied 30 points, look set to dominate the Las Vegas Raiders. De’Von Achane's potential return adds intrigue due to his high performance on limited touches.
Tyreek Hill, the NFL's top wide receiver, faces a Raiders team lacking the talent to contain him. With Hill eyeing records, this game promises elite production. Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle are solid options, but my preference leans toward other players.
- Pittsburgh Steelers Pass Catchers
Diontae Johnson excels, with a 50 percent target rate against the Cleveland Browns' main coverages. George Pickens thrives on big plays, set to face one-on-one coverage.
Pat Freiermuth is a steal at $2,500. Despite the bad play about Pickett, the Pittsburgh Steelers' affordable playmakers capitalize on the Browns' susceptibility to big plays, evident in three of their last four games.
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | C.J. Stroud | HOU | ARI | $7,000 | $8,000 |
| QB | Justin Fields | CHI | DET | $6,900 | $7,400 |
| QB | Kyler Murray | ARI | HOU | $6,100 | $7,600 |
| QB | Brock Purdy | SF | TB | $5,800 | $7,500 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | SF | TB | $9,300 | $10,000 |
| RB | Austin Ekeler | LAC | GB | $8,600 | $8,800 |
| RB | Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX | TEN | $7,200 | $8,300 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | CHI | $7,000 | $8,400 |
| RB | Raheem Mostert | MIA | LV | $6,900 | $7,800 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | LA | $6,700 | $7,400 |
| RB | Tony Pollard | DAL | CAR | $6,600 | $6,900 |
| RB | De'Von Achane | MIA | LV | $6,600 | $8,000 |
| RB | David Montgomery | DET | CHI | $6,500 | $7,700 |
| RB | Breece Hall | NYJ | BUF | $6,400 | $7,100 |
| RB | Aaron Jones | GB | LAC | $6,200 | $7,000 |
| RB | Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS | NYG | $5,800 | $7,200 |
| RB | James Conner | ARI | HOU | $5,700 | $6,800 |
| RB | Devin Singletary | HOU | ARI | $5,300 | $6,500 |
| RB | Zach Charbonnet | SEA | LA | $4,600 | $5,000 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | MIA | LV | $9,300 | $9,800 |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | CAR | $9,200 | $9,200 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | BUF | NYJ | $9,100 | $8,600 |
| WR | Keenan Allen | LAC | GB | $9,000 | $9,300 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | CHI | $8,800 | $8,900 |
| WR | Cooper Kupp | LA | SEA | $8,100 | $8,200 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | LV | $7,600 | $7,100 |
| WR | Adam Thielen | CAR | DAL | $7,500 | $7,000 |
| WR | Mike Evans | TB | SF | $7,400 | $7,700 |
| WR | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | TB | $7,200 | $7,800 |
| WR | Puka Nacua | LA | SEA | $7,100 | $7,500 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | SEA | LA | $6,900 | $7,200 |
| WR | Nico Collins | HOU | ARI | $6,700 | $4,500 |
| WR | Chris Godwin | TB | SF | $6,600 | $6,500 |
| WR | Tyler Lockett | SEA | LA | $6,500 | $6,900 |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | SF | TB | $6,300 | $7,100 |
| WR | DeAndre Hopkins | TEN | JAX | $6,100 | $6,700 |
| WR | Christian Kirk | JAX | TEN | $6,000 | $6,900 |
| WR | Tank Dell | HOU | ARI | $5,900 | $7,000 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS | NYG | $5,800 | $6,800 |
| WR | DJ Moore | CHI | DET | $5,600 | $6,800 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | ARI | HOU | $5,300 | $6,600 |
| WR | Jahan Dotson | WAS | NYG | $5,100 | $5,800 |
| WR | Diontae Johnson | PIT | CLE | $5,000 | $6,600 |
| WR | George Pickens | PIT | CLE | $4,900 | $6,400 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | LA | $4,300 | $5,500 |
| WR | Tutu Atwell | LA | SEA | $3,900 | $5,300 |
| WR | Josh Reynolds | DET | CHI | $3,700 | $5,700 |
| WR | Robert Woods | HOU | ARI | $3,700 | $5,100 |
| WR | Curtis Samuel | WAS | NYG | $3,600 | $5,900 |
| WR | Michael Wilson | ARI | HOU | $3,400 | $5,400 |
| WR | Rondale Moore | ARI | HOU | $3,300 | $4,900 |
| WR | Darnell Mooney | CHI | DET | $3,300 | $5,600 |
| WR | Jameson Williams | DET | CHI | $3,300 | $5,300 |
| WR | Khalil Shakir | BUF | NYJ | $3,200 | $5,300 |
| WR | Jake Bobo | SEA | LA | $3,200 | $4,600 |
| WR | Trey Palmer | TB | SF | $3,000 | $5,200 |
| TE | George Kittle | SF | TB | $6,400 | $7,000 |
| TE | Sam LaPorta | DET | CHI | $5,800 | $6,700 |
| TE | Dalton Schultz | HOU | ARI | $5,000 | $6,800 |
| TE | Trey McBride | ARI | HOU | $4,400 | $5,900 |
| TE | Cole Kmet | CHI | DET | $4,100 | $5,600 |
| TE | Luke Musgrave | GB | LAC | $3,600 | $5,200 |
| TE | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | CLE | $2,500 | $5,000 |
| DST | Cowboys | DAL | CAR | $4,100 | $5,200 |
| DST | Browns | CLE | PIT | $3,700 | $4,500 |
| DST | Commanders | WAS | NYG | $3,600 | $4,700 |
| DST | Steelers | PIT | CLE | $3,500 | $4,000 |
| DST | Jaguars | JAX | TEN | $3,400 | $4,300 |
| DST | Dolphins | MIA | LV | $3,200 | $4,200 |
| DST | Jets | NYJ | BUF | $2,600 | $3,700 |
| DST | Packers | GB | LAC | $2,300 | $3,700 |
Follow The 33rd Team Podcast Network on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
