Betting

4/21/23

7 min read

2023 NFL Draft: Bets to Make on NFC East Teams

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Below are our thoughts on what each NFC East team will do in the 2023 NFL Draft with their first pick. All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds will provide context for each positional favorite. Anytime Larky and Reynolds like/dislike current betting odds, they’ll note it clearly. If no betting commentary is provided, assume it is a fair line.

 

Teams are ordered by odds of winning the division. All betting odds will also feature implied percentage odds for context. A +750 line implies an 11.8 percent chance of this bet hitting, so if we take a +750 line, this outcome will likely happen more often than 11.8 percent.

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Others in Series

AFC East | AFC West | AFC North | AFC South

NFC West | NFC North | NFC South

NFC East Bets

Philadelphia Eagles: Pick 10

Chance to Win Division: +115 (46.5%)

Offensive Line (-160, 61.5%)

  • The Philadelphia Eagles always have prioritized a strong line and have a hole at right guard, where Cam Jurgens is atop the depth chart.
  • Jurgens was their 2022 second-round pick, who took zero snaps at right guard last year.
  • At least one high-caliber offensive line prospect should still be available at No. 10.

DL/EDGE (+180, 35.7%)

  • The team has a history of strong defensive lines and putting emphasis on that area.
  • The Eagles traded up for DL Jordan Davis No. 13 last year, sending picks 15, 124, 162 and 166 to the Houston Texans.
  • If Jalen Carter (scouting report) is still available, there’s a good chance the Eagles will pair him with Davis, his former teammate.

CB (+500, 16.7%)

  • Darius Slay is 32 years old, and there’s an out in his contract after 2024.
  • James Bradberry turns 30 in August, and there’s an out in his contract after 2024.
  • If either Christian Gonzalez (scouting report) or Devon Witherspoon (scouting report) slides, that’s your clearest path to potentially winning this bet.

RB (+650, 13.3%)

  • The running back depth chart is Kenneth Gainwell and Rashaad Penny after losing Miles Sanders in free agency.
  • Bijan Robinson (scouting report) is likely there at No. 10, though the Eagles' history suggests they won’t take a less important position like running back quite this early.

 

Dallas Cowboys: Pick 26

Chance to Win Division: +175 (36.4%)

TE (+200, 33.3%)

  • Dalton Schultz is now a Texan, but the Dallas Cowboys have generally built strong rosters via a clear understanding of positional value — outside of Ezekiel Elliott.
  • If Michael Mayer (scouting report) is there at No. 26, this is in play, but tight end is not a premium position.
  • Ultimately, we recommend not betting on this line.

DL/ Edge (+225, 30.8%)

  • Dallas is a title contender that already has a significant pass rush, but you can never have too many difference-makers in that area.
  • Demarcus Lawrence just turned 30, so selecting an edge rusher would be a long-view move.
  • The top six pass rushers in this class most likely are gone by the 26th pick.

OL: (+400, 20%)

  • With Tyron Smith and Zack Martin aging, the Cowboys could reinforce one of the strengths of their roster by selecting either an offensive tackle or guard.
  • If Wisconsin interior offensive linemen Joe Tippman (scouting report) is still available, he could end up in Dallas.
  • The top tackle prospects in this class will likely be long gone by pick 26.

WR (+550, 15.4%)

RB (+600, 14.3%)

  • Jerry Jones’ infatuation with Elliott could lead the team to draft his replacement, as Tony Pollard is only on the franchise tag.
  • If Robinson is there at No. 26, it’s difficult to see Dallas passing on him.

 

New York Giants: Pick 25

Chance to Win Division: +500 (16.7%)

WR (-105, 51.2%)

CB (+200, 33.3%)

  • Wink Martindale’s defense needs a No. 2 cornerback to pair with Adoree’ Jackson.
  • Daniel Racz put this bet in our discord at +400 (20%) a few weeks ago.
  • The biggest concern with this stance is the cornerbacks the Giants might target in this area could be gone already

OL: (+380, 20.8%)

  • The Giants' interior offensive line is still a weakness, and Evan Neal struggled at right tackle throughout his rookie season.
  • Despite Neal’s struggles, it would be a surprise if the Giants spent another first-round pick on an offensive tackle.
  • If Tippman is still available, that’s probably your best-case scenario.

DL/ Edge (+700, 12.5%)

  • The Giants' front four is the strength of their team.
  • If an edge rusher like Nolan Smith (scouting report) slides, it would be tempting for New York to pair him with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence for the next half-decade.
  • This line feels a touch too high, but we have not bet it yet.

 

Washington Commanders: Pick 16

Chance to Win Division: +900 (10%)

CB (-140, 58.3%)

  • Cornerback is one of the Washington Commanders' biggest needs.
  • Prospects like Deonte Banks (scouting report) and Joey Porter Jr. (scouting report) might still be available.
  • There’s no real value at these odds, but this is a situation where need and prospect availability could sync up.

OL (+350, 22.2%)

  • Washington’s offensive line is improved after the signings of RT Andrew Wylie and OC Nick Gates, but the group could still use upgrades.
  • Some appealing offensive tackle prospects should still be available at pick No. 16.
  • If Washington takes an offensive tackle prospect, they could start them at guard to begin their career with Charles Leno still on the roster.

TE (+600, 14.3%)

  • Players like Mayer and Dalton Kincaid (scouting report) are projected to go in this range, and Washington needs an upgrade at tight end.
  • That said, the Commanders have more pressing needs at more important positions.
  • Please, Washington, for the love of Matthew Berry, don’t take a tight end with the 16th overall pick.

RB (+800, 11.1%)

  • Brian Robinson Jr. was more than serviceable as a rookie and pairs well with Antonio Gibson.
  • This team is in a loaded division, and a running back will not move the needle in helping them make the playoffs.
  • We would stay away from this line.

QB (+2000, 4.8%)

  • If Hendon Hooker (scouting report) is there at No. 16, it’s tough to see Washington passing on him.
  • There have also been rumors of C.J. Stroud (scouting report) falling down draft boards. If he has a similar draft day fall as Justin Fields did in 2021, the Commanders will likely trade up for Stroud.
  • We recommend betting this line currently, as it’s closer to +1200 (7.7%) in other places

Tags: 2023 NFL Draft, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants See More

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

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