Analysis
10/25/23
13 min read
The Ultimate Guide to Winning Your Fantasy Playoffs
We’re approaching midseason, which means you should start thinking about optimizing your team for the fantasy playoffs. If you’re a fantasy football manager with two or fewer losses, you should consider some early moves. In this draft guide, we’ll identify advantageous matchups, players to target and players to potentially trade away. We’ll also take an extensive look at which defenses you should target for money-making season in fantasy football.
Injuries happen in the NFL, so we’ll come back and update this guide as we get closer to the fantasy playoffs. Until then, join our free Discord if you want to discuss how to optimize your roster for the playoffs.
Winning Your Fantasy Playoffs
Best Game Environments
If you’re a daily fantasy player, you build your lineups around the games with the most scoring potential. When practical, we should take the same approach in the fantasy playoffs.
| Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| CIN vs. MIN | MIA vs. DAL | KC vs. CIN |
| SEA vs. PHI | LAC vs. BUF | BAL vs. MIA |
| BUF vs. DAL | MIN vs. DET | DAL vs. DET |
| JAX vs. BAL | CHI vs. ARI | PHI vs. ARI |
Premium Fantasy Quarterback Schedules
These are the quarterbacks who you can stick in your lineup every week without even thinking about streaming options. Some of these premium options have more advantageous schedule stretches through the fantasy playoffs than others. When we update this guide in a few weeks, this list may change.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs at NE (MNF), vs. LV (Mon.), vs. CIN
All three of these games have a pretty considerable upside for Patrick Mahomes. The Week 15 and 16 matchups could be decisive victories against teams with nothing to play for but pride. Week 17’s matchup against the Bengals has enormous scoring potential.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. DAL, at LAC (Sat.), vs. NE
Josh Allen is struggling right now, but he’s a dual-threat quarterback with the most fantasy points per game in the past two seasons. Weather can be a major factor in Buffalo late in the year, which adds downside to Allen’s Week 15 and 17 matchups. Week 16’s matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers is the best of the bunch for Allen.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles at SEA, vs. NYG (Mon.), vs. ARI
The Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants both have good, but not quite elite defenses. Jalen Hurts’ Week 15 game against Seattle has some shootout potential. Kyler Murray should return soon for the Arizona Cardinals, which gives that Week 17 matchup some shootout potential, as well.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens at JAX (SNF), at SF (MNF), vs. MIA
Each one of these games has shootout potential for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, especially Week 17 against the Miami Dolphins. Week 15 against the Jacksonville Jaguars is another very appealing contest. Week 16’s bout with the San Francisco 49ers is a variable game, meaning it could play as a shootout or as a defensive contest.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (vs. NYJ, vs. DAL, at BAL)
To this point, the Dolphins’ high-powered offense has struggled against every quality defense the unit has faced. During the fantasy playoffs, Miami faces three premium defenses. Week 16’s matchup with the Dallas Cowboys and Week 17’s with the Ravens also come with high-scoring potential. For now, wait to see if this trend against quality defenses continues with Tua Tagovailoa. We still have plenty of time to be patient. If it does, we can consider making a move after Week 11’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers at LV (TNF), vs. BUF (Sat.), at DEN
Justin Herbert’s offense is currently struggling, but he has a nice schedule stretch through the fantasy playoffs. Week 15’s game in Las Vegas and Week 17’s in Denver are good matchups against division rivals. Week 16’s game against Buffalo has massive upside.
Weekly Quarterback Matchups to Target
If you don’t have one of the handful of quarterbacks you can plug and play every week, do your best to stack quality matchups. Remember, Week 17 is the most valuable week in fantasy football.
| Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Joe Burrow vs. Vikings | Jared Goff at Vikings | Joe Burrow at Chiefs |
| Kirk Cousins at Bengals | Dak Prescott at Dolphins | Trevor Lawrence vs. Panthers |
| Jared Goff vs. Broncos | Justin Fields vs. Cardinals | Matthew Stafford at Giants |
| Matthew Stafford vs. Commanders | Kyler Murray at Bears | C.J. Stroud vs. Titans |
| Brock Purdy at Cardinals | Geno Smith at Titans | Brock Purdy at Commanders |
Running Backs, Wide Receivers To Target
If you’re in a league where you can trade, here are several skill players with strong matchups in the fantasy playoffs.
>>READ: Fantasy Trade-Value Chart
RB Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons should be favored to win their final three games against the Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears, and Bijan Robinson managers are gifted a trio of top 10 matchups for fantasy point production. With current fears of Tyler Allgeier’s usage suppressing Robinson’s value, trust in Robinson’s talent, along with the history of rookies peaking later in the season — he’s a strong trade target at midseason.
RB David Montgomery, Detroit Lions
David Montgomery has multi-touchdown upside on any given Sunday, but especially against the Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings to begin the fantasy playoffs. The Cowboys in Week 17 aren't a preferred matchup, but their stats have been skewed by their four-week opening stretch against bottom-tier offenses: the Giants, New York Jets, Cardinals and New England Patriots.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor should flirt with 100 rushing yards in his Week 17 matchup against the Raiders, and QB Gardner Minshew has been targeting Taylor on more than a quarter of his routes run. Expect Taylor to firmly pull away from Zack Moss in the coming three weeks.
RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are generally regarded as a matchup-proof offense, so a Week 17 date against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that’s struggled to contain running backs this year is icing on the cake for second-year workhorse back Isiah Pacheco.
WR Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Week 16 against the Cleveland Browns hurts, but getting the Titans in both Weeks 15 and 17 eases the pain. The Titans have been one of the more extreme pass funnel defenses of the past two seasons, and the Houston Texans’ nonexistent run game only increases the likelihood of double-digit target performances from Nico Collins.
WR Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals
The Bears in Week 16 don’t have the pass rush to eliminate any Marquise Brown deep shots from Murray, and the Philadelphia Eagles defense has quietly been an above-average matchup for fantasy receivers this year.
WR Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
Matchups against the Panthers and Vikings in Weeks 16 and 17 make Christian Watson an appealing trade target while he’s still getting re-integrated into the Green Bay Packers’ offense.
WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
Rookie wide receiver fantasy production has historically been backloaded, and neither the Raiders in Week 16 nor the Bengals in Week 17 have the talent in their secondary to contain Rashee Rice, the Chiefs' most consistent receiver this season.
Wide Receivers, Seattle Seahawks
Closing out the fantasy season with the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers gives this talented receiver trio two top 10 fantasy matchups to close out the year.
Running Backs, Wide Receivers To Consider Trading
Some skill position players have brutal schedule stretches through the fantasy playoffs. Here are a few of them who you could potentially flip before your trade deadline.
Skill Players, Washington Commanders
Washington Commanders QB Sam Howell has taken sacks at a historic rate to begin the 2023 season, and the Jets and 49ers (Weeks 16 and 17) bring pressure at well-above-average rates. One, if not both, of these games could be derailed by stalled drives and overall ineffectiveness.
RB Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Tony Pollard’s efficiency metrics have plummeted across the board after offseason surgery, followed by a massive per-game workload in 2023. The Week 17 matchup against the Detroit Lions will pit a worn-down Pollard against arguably the league’s best run defense.
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Leverage any optimism surrounding Murray and James Conner’s returns from injury to sell Conner. Week 15 against the 49ers and Week 17 against the Eagles are nightmare matchups for any running back, particularly one without much explosiveness such as Conner.
WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
After a string of encouraging performances, sell Garrett Wilson before your league mates realize his Week 17 matchup takes place on Thursday Night in Cleveland, where bad weather could pile onto what is already a mismatch between the Jets offensive line and the Browns defensive front.
RB Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Dameon Pierce’s value continues to fall, but selling him now feels like jumping off an already sinking ship. It’s tough to imagine starting him in Weeks 15-17 when he faces the Titans twice and the Browns in between. No running back has a more intimidating three-game stretch to end the 2023 fantasy season.
Premium Fantasy Defense Schedules
At The 33rd Team, we don’t approach fantasy defenses like most do. Some of the best defenses in football are in potential smash spots in the fantasy playoffs. Having the right ones can give you a significant advantage over your opponents.
San Francisco 49ers at ARI, vs. BAL (MNF), at WAS
The 49ers’ pass rush will have a trench advantage against the Cardinals and Commanders. It would be no surprise if San Francisco’s defense is our top option in rankings those weeks. Week 16’s streaming options for defenses are weak, which makes the 49ers playable against Baltimore. Commanders QB Howell is taking sacks at a historic rate, making the 49ers the defense you don’t want to face in championship week.
Philadelphia Eagles at SEA, vs. NYG, vs. ARI
The Eagles’ pass rush will have a trench advantage in Weeks 16 and 17. If Geno Smith continues to be inconsistent, Philadelphia is pretty playable in Week 15, as well.
Dallas Cowboys at BUF, at MIA, vs. DET (MNF)
The Cowboys have one of the best pass rushes in the league, but these are all below-average matchups in fantasy. The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the league, so they could potentially mitigate the Cowboys’ pass rush. Road games against the Bills and Dolphins come with some upside in terms of sacks and turnovers.
Baltimore Ravens at JAX (SNF), at SF (MNF), vs. MIA
Each of these games is against top-10 offenses, which makes the Ravens defense reliant on sacks and turnovers. Baltimore does not have a fearsome four-man pass rush. If you could trade the Ravens’ defense for the 49ers’, that’s a move worth considering, especially right now while the 49ers are struggling and the Ravens are coming off a big win.
Kansas City Chiefs at NE (MNF), vs. LV, vs. CIN
Kansas City has excellent defensive matchups in Week 15 and 16. Week 17’s matchup with the Bengals has far more downside. If you have the Chiefs defense, pairing the unit with a high-end Week 17 streamer is worth considering.
New York Jets at MIA, vs. WASH, at CLE (TNF)
Week 15’s matchup in Miami comes with an obvious downside. That said, the Jets’ pass rush will have a trench advantage against Washington. The Jets will be in contention for the top defense in our Week 16 rankings. The Browns have a premium offensive line, but if their current quarterback situation doesn’t change, that’s another smash spot for the Jets. Motivation could be a concern for the Jets late in the season. Right now, they are a competitive team, but if they fall off down the stretch, that adds some downside.
Cleveland Browns vs. CHI, at HOU, vs. NYJ (TNF)
The Browns will have a trench advantage in Weeks 15 and 17 in potential smash spots against the Bears and Jets. Week 16’s game in Houston is playable considering the weak streaming options in that slate. Cleveland almost always has a severe weather game late in the season. When major wind is involved, sacks and turnover opportunities go down when teams lean heavily on the run game.
Weekly Defensive Matchups To Target
If you want to stream in the fantasy playoffs, these are the best matchups we didn’t mention above. Even if you have a premium defense, you might want a streamer in one specific week. This season, Week 16 is light on slam dunk streaming options.
| Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| Saints Defense vs. Giants | Packers Defense at Panthers | Bills Defense vs. Patriots |
| Texans Defense at Titans | Seahawks Defense at Titans | Texans Defense vs. Titans |
| Lions Defense vs. Broncos | Steelers Defense vs. Bengals | Jaguars Defense vs. Panthers |
| Dolphins Defense vs. Jets | Texans Defense vs. Browns | Seahawks Defense vs. Steelers |
| Steelers Defense at Colts | Bengals Defense at Steelers | Saints Defense at Buccaneers |
Every Team's Fantasy Playoffs Schedule
| Team | Week 15 | Week 16 | Week 17 |
| ARI | vs. SF | at CHI | at PHI |
| ATL | at CAR | vs. IND | at CHI |
| BAL | at JAX (SNF) | at SF (MNF) | vs. MIA |
| BUF | vs. DAL | at LAC | vs. NE |
| CAR | vs. ATL | vs. GB | at JAX |
| CHI | at CLE | vs. ARI | vs. ATL |
| CIN | vs. Min | at PIT | at KC |
| CLE | vs. CHI | at HOU | vs. NYJ (TNF) |
| DAL | at BUF | at MIA | vs. DET |
| DEN | at DET | vs. NE (SNF) | vs. LAC |
| DET | vs. DEN | at MIN | at DAL |
| GB | vs. TB | at CAR | at MIN (SNF) |
| HOU | at TEN | vs. CLE | vs. TEN |
| IND | vs. PIT | at ATL | vs. LV |
| JAX | vs. BAL (SNF) | at TB | vs. CAR |
| KC | at NE (MNF) | vs. LV | vs. CIN |
| LV | vs. LAC (TNF) | at KC | at IND |
| LAC | at LV (TNF) | vs. BUF | at DEN |
| LAR | vs. WAS | vs. NO (TNF) | at NYG |
| MIA | vs. NYJ | vs. DAL | at BAL |
| MIN | at CIN | vs. DET | vs. GB (SNF) |
| NE | vs. KC (MNF) | at DEN (SNF) | at BUF |
| NO | vs. NYG | at LAR (TNF) | at TB |
| NYG | at NO | at PHI | vs. LAR |
| NYJ | at MIA | vs. WAS | at CLE (TNF) |
| PHI | at SEA | vs. NYG | vs. ARI |
| PIT | at IND | vs. CIN | at SEA |
| SF | at ARI | vs. BAL (MNF) | at WAS |
| SEA | vs. PHI | at TEN | vs. PIT |
| TB | at GB | vs. JAX | vs. NO |
| TEN | vs. HOU | vs. SEA | at HOU |
| WAS | at LAR | at NYJ | vs. SF |
If you want to discuss anything in this guide, join our free Discord.
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