Rookie wide receivers accumulate fantasy points differently than any other type of fantasy asset. Using nearly 2,000 data points over seven years, this analysis will outline how they score their points in a unique way, along with why this matters for fantasy football and best ball.
The Dataset
- Rookie WR game logs from 2016-2022
- At least one offensive snap was needed for game log inclusion
- Weeks 1-16 for each season were analyzed
- Fantasy leagues didn't include Week 17 scoring from 2016-2020
- Including Week 17 scoring for only 2021-2022 (expansion to a 17-game season, which results in 18 weeks of football) felt unnecessary and would be cumbersome in analysis
- 1,901 game logs from 184 different rookie WRs were in the sample
Rookie WR Scoring
This analysis utilizes PPR (points per reception) fantasy scoring, as that is the best indicator of wide receiver usage.
Since 2016, here are the number of games where a rookie WR reached 10 PPR points, bucketed by quarters of the season.
Reminder: These numbers are from the 1,901 rookie WR game logs over the past seven seasons.
10+ PPR Point Performances from Rookie WRs (2016-2022)
| Weeks 1-4 |
Weeks 5-8 |
Weeks 9-12 |
Weeks 13-16 |
| 93 |
95 |
123 |
133 |
Here's that same table, but now the bar increases to 15 PPR points or more scored in a single game.
15+ PPR Point Performances from Rookie WRs (2016-2022)
| Weeks 1-4 |
Weeks 5-8 |
Weeks 9-12 |
Weeks 13-16 |
| 47 |
40 |
68 |
68 |
Both tables reveal that rookie wide receivers have more fantasy-relevant weeks as the season moves along. In fantasy football leagues and best ball tournaments, the majority of the money is tied up in the final few weeks of the season — the fantasy playoffs or best ball playoffs. Rookie wide receivers disproportionately contribute fantasy points at the most optimal money-making time for fantasy enthusiasts.
When breaking down the double-digit PPR game logs by year and quarter of the season a steady trend emerges. In six of seven years, the final quarter of the season contained the most rookie WR spike weeks. And in all seven years, the second half of the season contained more spike weeks than the first half.
10+ PPR Point Performances from Rookie WRs
| Year |
Weeks 1-4 |
Weeks 5-8 |
Weeks 9-12 |
Weeks 13-16 |
| 2016 |
14 |
8 |
18 |
15 |
| 2017 |
7 |
6 |
10 |
13 |
| 2018 |
8 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
| 2019 |
16 |
15 |
22 |
23 |
| 2020 |
19 |
22 |
23 |
28 |
| 2021 |
13 |
14 |
17 |
19 |
| 2022 |
16 |
14 |
16 |
17 |
For a similar table (the 15 PPR point version), along with several others, scroll down to the appendix at the end of this article.
'Good' Rookie WR Scoring
- Filtered the original dataset to WRs who played at least 10 games and averaged at least 10 PPR points per game
- 30 WRs since 2016 fit these criteria, and they're included in the table below
Quick Notes
- Twelve of the 30 "good" rookie WRs were taken in Round 1, 12 were taken in Round 2
- Just 20 percent of the "good" rookie WRs since 2016 were drafted in Round 3 or later
When looking at only the most fantasy-relevant rookie wide receivers, we see that more of their scoring occurs at the end of the fantasy season, too. Whether you filter for 10 PPR point games or 15 PPR point games from this group of 30 studs, you'll see that the final quarter of the season contains the most fantasy-relevant spike weeks.
10+ PPR Point Performances from *Good* Rookie WRs (2016-2022)
| Weeks 1-4 |
Weeks 5-8 |
Weeks 9-12 |
Weeks 13-16 |
| 62 |
49 |
62 |
71 |
15+ PPR Point Performances from *Good* Rookie WRs (2016-2022)
| Weeks 1-4 |
Weeks 5-8 |
Weeks 9-12 |
Weeks 13-16 |
| 36 |
26 |
42 |
48 |
The table below illustrates how these good rookie receivers had the most spike weeks in the final quarter of the season in six of the past seven seasons.
10+ PPR Point Performances from *Good* Rookie WRs (2016-2022)
| Year |
Weeks 1-4 |
Weeks 5-8 |
Weeks 9-12 |
Weeks 13-16 |
| 2016 |
7 |
5 |
9 |
9 |
| 2017 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
5 |
| 2018 |
4 |
3 |
3 |
2 |
| 2019 |
13 |
10 |
13 |
18 |
| 2020 |
14 |
13 |
12 |
14 |
| 2021 |
9 |
11 |
12 |
11 |
| 2022 |
11 |
4 |
9 |
12 |
Applying What We've Learned
- Draft rookie WRs early and often in fantasy and best ball drafts that project for Round 1 or Round 2 draft capital.
- Do not drop under-performing rookie WRs with high draft capital early in the season, as they're more likely to produce fantasy-relevant weeks when money is on the line late in the season.
Appendix
10+ PPR Point Performances from Rookie WRs, Bucketed Every 8 Weeks
| Year |
Weeks 1-8 |
Weeks 9-16 |
| 2016 |
22 |
33 |
| 2017 |
13 |
23 |
| 2018 |
24 |
35 |
| 2019 |
31 |
45 |
| 2020 |
41 |
51 |
| 2021 |
27 |
36 |
| 2022 |
30 |
33 |
15+ PPR Point Performances from Rookie WRs, Bucketed Every 8 Weeks
| Year |
Weeks 1-8 |
Weeks 9-16 |
| 2016 |
9 |
18 |
| 2017 |
5 |
10 |
| 2018 |
12 |
15 |
| 2019 |
17 |
21 |
| 2020 |
16 |
33 |
| 2021 |
12 |
21 |
| 2022 |
16 |
18 |
15+ PPR Point Performances from Rookie WRs, Bucketed Every 4 Weeks
| Year |
Weeks 1-4 |
Weeks 5-8 |
Weeks 9-12 |
Weeks 13-16 |
| 2016 |
6 |
3 |
11 |
7 |
| 2017 |
3 |
2 |
3 |
7 |
| 2018 |
6 |
6 |
9 |
6 |
| 2019 |
11 |
6 |
9 |
12 |
| 2020 |
6 |
10 |
18 |
15 |
| 2021 |
7 |
5 |
8 |
13 |
| 2022 |
8 |
8 |
10 |
8 |
10+ PPR Point Performances from *Good* Rookie WRs, Bucketed Every 8 Weeks
| Year |
Weeks 1-8 |
Weeks 9-16 |
| 2016 |
12 |
18 |
| 2017 |
7 |
9 |
| 2018 |
7 |
5 |
| 2019 |
23 |
31 |
| 2020 |
27 |
26 |
| 2021 |
20 |
23 |
| 2022 |
15 |
21 |
15+ PPR Point Performances from *Good* Rookie WRs, Bucketed Every 8 Weeks
| Year |
Weeks 1-8 |
Weeks 9-16 |
| 2016 |
6 |
12 |
| 2017 |
4 |
6 |
| 2018 |
5 |
4 |
| 2019 |
14 |
18 |
| 2020 |
14 |
21 |
| 2021 |
10 |
17 |
| 2022 |
9 |
12 |
15+ PPR Point Performances from *Good* Rookie WRs, Bucketed Every 4 Weeks
| Year |
Weeks 1-4 |
Weeks 5-8 |
Weeks 9-12 |
Weeks 13-16 |
| 2016 |
3 |
3 |
6 |
6 |
| 2017 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
4 |
| 2018 |
4 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
| 2019 |
9 |
5 |
7 |
11 |
| 2020 |
6 |
8 |
11 |
10 |
| 2021 |
6 |
4 |
7 |
10 |
| 2022 |
6 |
3 |
6 |
6 |
Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team. He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.
