Opening Spread: Seahawks Pick’em
Opening Game Total: 43
Opening Team Totals: Seahawks (21.5) Jets (21.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as a pick’em
- This line has moved to Seahawks +2.5
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Seahawks +1.5
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Seahawks +1.5
- This total opened at 43-points
- This total has moved to 42.5 points
Seahawks: Questionable — RB Kenneth Walker III, WR Tyler Lockett, TE Noah Fant, RT Abraham Lucas, WR Marquise Goodwin, DL Al Woods, Edge Bruce Irvin, S Ryan Neal
Jets: Questionable — S Lamarcus Joyner, DE Vinny Curry, G Nate Herbig
The Seahawks Offense vs. Jets Defense
I have the Seahawks’ offensive line tiered towards the front of league average. I have the Jets’ defensive front as a top-ten unit. The Jets’ defense has a mild trench advantage.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Seahawks are 6-9 against the spread this season
- The Seahawks are 6-9 on overs this season
- Geno Smith is 32-27-2 against the spread in his career
- Geno Smith is 30-30-1 on overs in his career
- Pete Carroll is 108-93-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach
- Pete Carroll is 104-101-3 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach
- The Seahawks are scoring 24.3 points per game, tied for ninth in the league
- Seattle is 11th in the league in yards passing per game and 21st in yards rushing
- The Seahawks are passing on 66% of their plays and running on 34% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Kenneth Walker III is 20th in the league in yards rushing with 804 and tied for tenth in rushing touchdowns with nine
- DK Metcalf has 86 receptions for 1,005 yards receiving and six touchdowns. Metcalf has a 25.9% target share and a 36.8% air yards share
- Tyler Lockett has 78 receptions for 964 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. Lockett has a 23.6% target share and a 32.6% air yards share
- With Will Dissly sidelined, Noah Fant (11.3% target share) likely will see some role expansion
- The Jets have allowed 18.8 points per game, which is fourth in the league
- Per The Edge, the Jets have allowed the 22nd-most yards rushing per game and the 12th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- New York has given up the second-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Jets have allowed the ninth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
The Jets Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
I have the Jets’ offensive line tiered as a league average group. I have the Seahawks tiered as a bottom tier group. The Jets have a mild advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jets are 8-7 against the spread this season
- The Jets are 5-10 on overs this season
- Mike White is 3-4 against the spread in his career
- Mike White is 6-1 on overs in his career
- Robert Saleh is 14-18 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach
- Robert Saleh is 15-17 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach
- The Jets are scoring 18.9 points per game, which is 25th in the league
- New York is 15th in the league in yards passing per game and 24th in yards rushing
- The Jets are passing on 64% of their plays and running on 36% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Per the Edge, Mike White has breached 300 yards passing in two of his three starts this season
- Zonovan Knight has led Jets running backs in carries in each of the past five games
- Knight has 11 targets over that span, while Michael Carter has 14 over that span, despite missing a game
- Garrett Wilson has seven or more targets and at least 78 yards receiving in each of the three games that Mike White has started
- Elijah Moore had at least 60 yards receiving in two of White’s three starts
- Those two games were Moore’s two highest yardage outputs on the season
- Corey Davis has been held to 15 or fewer yards receiving in four of his past five games
- Tyler Conklin saw seven or more targets in two of White’s three starts
- The Seahawks have allowed 25.3 points per game, which is 29th in the league
- Per The Edge, the Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most yards rushing per game and the third-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- Seattle has given up the third-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- The Seahawks have allowed the third-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Seahawks have allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to in line tight ends
This Is What You’re Betting On
The Jets and Seahawks are both alive in their respective wild-card races. Both teams have lost five of their past six games. The winner of this game has a real shot at making the playoffs, while the loser likely will be eliminated. The Jets last played on Thursday Night Football on Dec. 22, so they are coming off a long week.
If You’re Betting on the Seahawks
Geno Smith’s surprising offense was the driving force behind Seattle’s early season success. That group has come back to reality in recent weeks, being held below 14 points by the 49ers and Chiefs after a very uneven performance against the Panthers. If you’re betting on the Seahawks, Seattle’s offense is in a similar position against the Jets’ defense as it was against the 49ers. That’s much more of a concern than a foundation to build a bet around. Seattle’s defense is giving up the fourth-most points per game, so it isn’t exactly the sort of unit you want to build a bet around, either. With that said, the Jets’ offense isn’t exactly a beacon of stability itself. Ultimately, if you’re betting on the Seahawks, you are getting a highly motivated home team, facing a talented, but struggling, East Coast team that’s flying across the country this week.
If You’re Betting on the Jets
Mike White is back at quarterback for the Jets, which means this team is once again not drawing dead if they have to play from behind. We should not view the Jets as a reliable or even a good offense in their current state, especially since they’ve been struggling to run the ball effectively, but this group has a much higher ceiling with White than with Zach Wilson. They draw a very beatable Seahawks defense. The Seahawks invite passes to running backs, and White has shown in the past that he will take what the defense gives him. If you’re betting on the Jets, you are building that bet around New York’s top-five level defense against a Seahawks offense that is struggling after its early season success. Your primary concern as a Jets bettor is that the offense turns the ball over a few times, putting even more pressure on their defense against a struggling, but still talented, Seahawks offense.
Awards Market Ramifications: Geno Smith is a Comeback Player of the Year contender. Kenneth Walker is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender. Sauce Gardner is the Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I will be Jets heavy in winner pools, and I expect to be higher than consensus on this contest in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I have already taken the Jets against the spread.
Survivor Pool: This game should ideally be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 47-28
Props 2022: 54-33
WATCH: Zach Wilson’s Future With Jets Uncertain