Betting

12/14/22

9 min read

NFL Week 15 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for 49ers vs. Seahawks

By Ryan Reynolds

Seattle Seahawks

Thursday Night Football: San Francisco 49ers (9-4) at Seattle Seahawks (7-6)

Opening Spread: Seahawks +3.5.

Opening Game Total: 43.5.

Opening Team Totals: Seahawks (20) 49ers (23.5).

Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Seahawks +3.5.
  • This line remains at Seahawks +3.5.
  • This total opened at 43.5 points.
  • This total remains at 43.5 points.

Notable Injuries

Seahawks: Questionable: RB DeeJay Davis, DT Al Woods, Edge Bruce Irvin, CB Tre Brown, S Ryan Neal.

49ers: Out: WR Deebo Samuel, DT Kevin Givens. Questionable: QB Brock Purdy, RB Christian McCaffrey, DT Arik Armstead.

The Seahawks Offense vs. 49ers Defense

The Seahawks have a fringe top-ten offensive line blocking for them. San Francisco has a top-ten-level defensive line they use to disrupt opposing offenses. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw, while the 49ers' edge rusher Nick Bosa has an individual advantage on the outside.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Seahawks are 6-7 against the spread this season.
  • The Seahawks are 8-5 on overs this season.
  • Geno Smith is 25-20-2 against the spread in his career.
  • Geno Smith is 24-22-1 on overs in his career.
  • Pete Carroll is 108-91-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
  • Pete Carroll is 104-99-3 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.

Seahawks Offense

  • The Seahawks are scoring 26.3 points per game, good for sixth in the league.
  • Seattle is eighth in the league in yards passing per game and 21st in yards rushing.
  • The Seahawks are passing on 64% of their plays and running on 36% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
  • After missing last week’s contest against the Panthers, Kenneth Walker III is currently off the injury report.
  • Per the Edge, Kenneth Walker III is 22nd in the league in yards rushing with 650.
  • DK Metcalf has 72 receptions for 869 yards receiving and six touchdowns. Metcalf has a 26.4% target share and a 37.8% air yards share.
  • Tyler Lockett has 71 receptions for 896 yards receiving and eight touchdowns. Lockett has a 23.8% target share with a 32.7% air yards share.
  • Marquise Goodwin is coming off his best game of the season where he caught five-of-six targets for 95 yards receiving.
  • Noah Fant has an 11.3% target share on the season. Consider him a talented but volatile option based on his role.
  • Per TruMedia, DK Metcalf has played 505 snaps on the perimeter and 104 in the slot.
  • Tyler Lockett has played 393 snaps on the perimeter and 225 in the slot.

49ers Defense

  • The 49ers have allowed 15.2 points per game, which is first in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the 49ers have allowed the fewest yards rushing per game and the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • San Francisco has given up the seventh-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • San Francisco has given up the fifth-most PPR points per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The 49ers have allowed the 27th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season. 

The 49ers Offense vs. Seahawks Defense

San Francisco has a top-ten-level offensive line blocking in the trenches for them. The Seahawks have a below-average defensive front that has exceeded expectations a few times while at home. The 49ers' offensive line has a moderate to significant advantage in this contest.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The 49ers are 8-5 against the spread this season.
  • The 49ers are 6-7 on overs this season.
  • Brock Purdy is 1-0 against the spread in his career.
  • Brock Purdy is 1-0 on overs in his career.
  • Kyle Shanahan is 47-46-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Kyle Shanahan is 47-45-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

49ers Offense

  • The 49ers are scoring 24.2 points per game, which is eighth in the league.
  • San Francisco is 17th in the league in yards passing per game and ninth in yards rushing.
  • The 49ers are passing on 57% of their plays and running on 43% of their plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
  • Per the Edge, in Brock Purdy’s first start, Christian McCaffrey had 114 yards rushing on 14 carries but only three targets.
  • McCaffrey is 12th in the league in yards rushing with 819, and he’s second among running backs in yards receiving with 600.
  • Brandon Aiyuk has a 21% target share and a 31.1% air yards share. Aiyuk only had three targets last week in Brock Purdy’s first NFL start.
  • Jauan Jennings has an 11.4% target share and a 12.4% air yards share. Jennings could see some role expansion with Deebo Samuel sidelined.
  • George Kittle has a 16.7% target share and a 14.7% air yards share. Kittle had five targets in Purdy’s first start last week.
  • Per TruMedia, Brandon Aiyuk has played 592 snaps on the perimeter and 142 in the slot.
  • Jauan Jennings has played 125 snaps on the perimeter and 165 in the slot.
  • George Kittle has played 425 snaps as an inline tight end, 50 on the perimeter and 133 in the slot.

Seahawks Defense

  • The Seahawks have allowed 25.7 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most yards rushing per game and the third-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Seattle has given up the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • Seattle has given up the seventh-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
  • The Seahawks have allowed the sixth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
  • The Seahawks have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.

This Is What You’re Betting On in Seahawks vs. 49ers

San Francisco beat Seattle 27-7 in Week 2 in a game where Jimmy Garoppolo took over for an injured Trey Lance. 

If you’re betting on the Seahawks, you are primarily betting on Geno Smith’s offense. While this group has scored 24 or more points in six of their last seven games, they have had more middling performances against the Rams and Panthers over the last two weeks. Kenneth Walker is currently off the injury report, which will allow Seattle to be more balanced on offense. Despite having one of the league’s best wide receiver duos, the Seahawks are at their best offensively when they have the option to lean on Walker. That said, as we saw back in Week 2, the 49ers have already shut down the Seahawks' offense once this season. If that happens again, Seattle is in a lot of trouble in this contest. Your next biggest concern with a Seahawks bet is that their talent-light defense is starting to play accordingly. This group has given up 53 total points to the Rams and Panthers over the last two weeks. Seattle’s defense cannot be relied on, and your hope as a Seahawks bettor is more about Brock Purdy struggling in his second start than Seattle’s defense dictating this game.

Brock Purdy came on in relief duty to spearhead an impressive win over the Dolphins in Week 13. Purdy then made his first NFL start last week against Tom Brady’s Buccaneers, which the 49ers won 35-7. If you’re betting on the 49ers, you are betting on Purdy’s ability to play well behind one of the league’s best-supporting casts. San Francisco is so loaded and well-rounded that the loss of Deebo Samuel isn’t an outright killer for this offense, as they still have a number of difference-making options on that side of the ball. If you’re betting on the 49ers, you’re at least betting on their offense to meet expectations. The 49ers' defense already held Seattle to seven points earlier in the season. San Francisco is giving up the fewest points in the league this year. If you’re betting on the 49ers, San Francisco’s offense or defense is capable of winning this game. Your biggest concern as a 49ers bettor is that they are on the road on the short week against a Seahawks team that is in more desperate need of a win.

Awards Market Ramifications: Geno Smith and Christian McCaffrey are the two primary Comeback Player of the Year contenders in awards markets. The winner of this game could have a significant impact on that race. Kenneth Walker is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender. Brock Purdy has a path in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race if the 49ers finish 3-1 or better down the stretch. Tariq Woolen is a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Nick Bosa is a Defensive Player of the Year contender.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the 49ers in winner pools, and I expect to be a little higher than the consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.

Spread Pool: I’m going to take the 49ers or pass here, my only hesitancy is that a rookie quarterback will be making his second start, on a short week, in Seattle.

Survivor Pool: This contest should ideally be avoided in survivor pools.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 43-22

Props 2022: 43-29

Watch: The Year of the Backup Quarterback

Tags: Arik Armstead, Brandon Aiyuk, Brock Purdy See More

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

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