In this Wild Card edition of Cam’s Corner, Cam looks at his favorite sacks of the week, a controversial roughing the passer call, and gives us his Divisional Round game to watch.
Opening Spread: 49ers -10
Opening Game Total: 42.5
Opening Team Totals: 49ers (26.25) Seahawks (16.25)
Weather: Outdoors, rain expected
The Line Report
- This line opened as 49ers -10
- This line has moved to 49ers -9.5
- This total opened at 42.5-points
- This total has moved to 43.5-points
49ers: Questionable: RB Christian McCaffrey, LG Aaron Banks, DT Arik Armstead, DT Javon Kinlaw, LB Dre Greenlaw.
Seahawks: Questionable: Edge Shelby Harris, DT Al Woods, S Ryan Neal.
49ers Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
I have the 49ers’ offensive line tiered as a top-ten unit. I have the Seahawks’ defensive front tiered as a bottom-tier group. The 49ers’ offensive line has a significant advantage in the trenches against the Seahawks.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The 49ers are 11-6 against the spread this season
- San Francisco is 9-8 on overs this season
- Brock Purdy is 4-1 against the spread in his career
- Purdy is 4-1 on overs in his career
- Kyle Shanahan is 50-47-1 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career
- Shanahan is 50-46-2 on overs in his NFL head coaching career
- San Francisco scores 26.5 points per game, good for sixth in the league
- The 49ers are 13th in the league in yards passing per game and eighth in yards rushing
- San Francisco is passing on 55% of their plays and running on 45% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- The 49ers are 5-0 under Purdy, which doesn’t include San Francisco’s win against Miami when Purdy came on for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo
- Including that game against Miami, Purdy’s offense has breached 30-points in five of six games
- Per the Edge, Christian McCaffrey was eighth in the league in yards rushing with 1,139 and the leader in yards receiving among running backs with 748
- In his lone game against Seattle this season, McCaffrey ran for 108 yards and a score on 26 carries while catching six-of-eight targets for 30 yards receiving
- McCaffrey has an exceptional matchup, in both phases, against the Seahawks
- Since Purdy took over in Week 13, Deebo Samuel has 12 receptions for 121 yards receiving with a 22% target share and a 14.4% air yards share. Samuel has only been active for three games since Purdy took over
- Since Purdy took over in Week 13, Brandon Aiyuk has 27 receptions for 363 yards receiving and two touchdowns with a 24.7% target share and a 39.6% air yards share
- Jauan Jennings has 11 receptions for 147 yards receiving with an 11.7% target share and a 16.5% air yards share since Purdy became the starting quarterback.
- George Kittle has 24 receptions for 315 yards receiving and seven touchdowns with a 21.6% target share and a 25.2% air yards share with Purdy being his quarterback.
- Per TruMedia, Kittle has played the third-most snaps as an inline tight end with 570, with 78 more on the perimeter and 177 in the slot
- Seattle has allowed 23.6 points per game, which is 25th in the league
- The Seahawks are seventh in the league in sacks, third in forced fumbles and 12th in interceptions
- Per The Edge, Seattle is allowed the sixth-most yards rushing per game and the fifth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- The Seahawks have given up the 31st-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- Seattle has allowed the second-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
- The Seahawks have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends
Seahawks Offense vs. 49ers Defense
I have the Seahawks’ offensive line tiered as a league-average unit. I have the 49ers’ defensive front tiered as a top-five group. The 49er’s defensive front has a moderate, to significant advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Seahawks are 7-10 against the spread this season
- Seattle is 8-9 on overs this season
- Geno Smith is 26-23-2 against the spread in his career
- Smith is 24-26-1 on overs in his career
- Pete Carroll is 109-94-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach
- Carroll is 104-103-3 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach
- Seattle scores 23.9 points per game, which is ninth in the league
- The Seahawks are 10th in the league in yards passing per game and 18th in yards rushing
- Seattle passes on 66% of their plays and runs on 34% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions
- Smith finished eighth in the league in yards passing and fourth in touchdown passes
- Per the Edge, Kenneth Walker III finished 12th in the league in yards rushing with 1,051 and 10th in rushing touchdowns with nine
- In his last matchup against the 49ers, Walker was held below 50 yards rushing, but he saw five targets, which is the second-most he’s seen all season
- DK Metcalf has 90 receptions for 1,048 yards receiving and six touchdowns with a 25.5% target share and a 36.9% air yards share
- Tyler Lockett has 84 receptions for 1,033 yards receiving and nine touchdowns with a 22.8% target share and a 30.8% air yards share
- Lockett has led Seattle in yards receiving in both matchups against San Francisco this season
- Noah Fant finished the season with an 11.4% target share and a 9.2% air yards share
- Per TruMedia, Metcalf has played 714 snaps on the perimeter and 136 in the slot
- Lockett has played 467 snaps on the perimeter and 282 in the slot
- San Francisco has allowed 16.3 points per game, which is the best in the league
- The 49ers are ninth in the league in sacks, sixth in forced fumbles and first in interceptions
- Per The Edge, San Francisco has allowed the fewest yards rushing per game and the 17th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season
- The 49ers have given up the sixth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year
- San Francisco has given up the eighth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the fifth-most to those in the slot
- The 49ers have allowed the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season
This Is What You’re Betting On
San Francisco beat Seattle 27-7 and 21-13 this season. The 49ers have won their last 10 games, with the last six coming after Purdy took over for Garoppolo in Week 13. The Seahawks went 3-5 in their final eight games, with a 3-4 record since their Week 11 bye.
If You’re Betting on the 49ers
San Francisco has one of the best offensive coaches in the league, a top-10 offensive line and one of the most complete skill groups in football. On top of that, the 49ers’ defense gave up the fewest points per game this season. If you’re betting on the 49ers, you are betting on one of the two best rosters in the league. There’s a lot to like about a supremely talented team, with significant recent success in the playoffs, against a Seahawks team that finished below .500 in the second half of the season.
Since the 49ers have to win by two scores, you have two core concerns with that bet. The first is Purdy playing his most uneven game since taking over at quarterback, meaning the 49ers don’t approach 30 points on offense. The second is the Seahawks’ offense looking more like it did in the middle of the season than it has in recent weeks.
If You’re Betting on the Seahawks
It would be surprising if the Seahawks won this game outright, as the 49ers could dominate this contest in every phase. However, there are a few variables in the Seahawks’ favor. The first is familiarity. This is the third time these teams face each other this season. Seattle knows better than anyone what the 49ers are capable of, which means the talent disparity between these two teams won’t be a surprise. Second is even if Seattle loses decisively, Smith’s offense is capable of back-door covering as two-score underdogs.
The third factor is Purdy is only making his fifth NFL start and a multi-turnover game is in his range of outcomes. Seattle will need to play a near-perfect game to leave with a win, but they do have a few paths to keeping this close.
Now, your biggest concern as a Seahawks bettor is they are simply playing a far superior team. If Smith’s offense continues to underwhelm as it has throughout the second half, Seattle is in trouble. Similarly, if Purdy’s offense continues to score 30 or more points as they’ve been consistently doing, the Seahawks are in trouble.
Score Prediction: 49ers 27 Seahawks 16
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
Props 2022: 57-40