Analysis
8/15/23
5 min read
NFL Record Predictions for Every AFC East Team Entering 2023 Preseason
With preseason football underway, it’s time to take an updated look at each team’s season-long prospects. In the coming days, we’ll provide record predictions for each NFL team, continuing with the AFC East.
Listen to NFL insider Ari Meirov discuss every AFC team with Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds.
Other Division Betting Predictions
NFC: North | South | East | West
AFC East Record Predictions
Buffalo Bills
2022 Record: 13-3
2023 Win Total: 10.5
Division Odds: +120
Super Bowl Odds: +900
Josh Allen’s Bills have become a perennial contender. However, several AFC teams with premium quarterbacks have closed the talent gap on Buffalo.
How Buffalo Exceeds Expectations
The Bills’ success begins and ends with Allen, who has been elevating Buffalo’s offense for years. If Buffalo is going to exceed expectations, Allen needs to continue playing at an MVP-caliber level. He’s the obvious key to the team’s success.
Buffalo’s most significant advantage over its AFC competitors is its high-end defense. Coach Sean McDermott will take over defensive play calling duties this season. If McDermott can get even more out of Buffalo’s defense, especially against premium opponents, Buffalo can stay on top of the division.
How Buffalo Fails to Meet Expectations
Your biggest concern with Buffalo is that several AFC teams now have rosters that are at least equal to its. The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins are two of those teams. Buffalo has benefited from a soft division during the last few years, but that’s no longer the case.
Your second biggest concern is that, despite the organization’s best efforts, Allen takes too much contact as a runner. If that trend continues, it increases the chances of Allen missing time because of injury. Every quarterback is vital to their team’s success, but few teams are as reliant on theirs as Buffalo.
Record Prediction: 11-6
>> READ: Buffalo Bills Fantasy Team Preview
Miami Dolphins
2022 Record: 9-8
2023 Win Total: 9.5
Division Odds: +300
Super Bowl Odds: +2500
When Tua Tagovailoa was active last season, the Dolphins were 8-5. In the four games he missed, Miami was 1-3. The Dolphins improved on defense, making them one of the few teams with any chance of fielding a top-five offense and defense. But ultimately, their season rides on Tagovailoa.
How Miami Exceeds Expectations
The Dolphins have an innovative coach in Mike McDaniel and one of, if not the, most dynamic wide receiver duos in history. The Dolphins have stacked game-breaking speed better than anyone else ever has.
Miami already had a top-10 caliber defense from a pure talent perspective, and they added defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. The McDaniel-Fangio marriage is reminiscent of Sean McVay teaming up with Wade Phillips in Los Angeles.
None of that matters if Tagovailoa can’t stay healthy this season. If he can, Miami can beat anyone.
How Miami Fails to Meet Expectations
Potential injuries are a factor for every team, but Tagovailoa’s situation is unique given his concussion history. Mike White is a strong backup quarterback, but this team can’t contend in the AFC without Tagovailoa. The conference and division are too strong for Miami to keep up if Tagovailoa misses significant time this season.
Record Prediction: 11-6
>> READ: Miami Dolphins Fantasy Team Preview
New England Patriots
2022 Record: 8-9
2023 Win Total: 6.5
Division Odds: +800
Super Bowl Odds: +6500
The New England Patriots haven’t enjoyed much success since Tom Brady left. You could also argue they’ve overachieved in his absence, given the limitations of their roster.
How New England Exceeds Expectations
Bill Belichick is still a strategic mastermind on defense, but New England’s offense is a significant question mark. Mac Jones regressed last year after a strong rookie season.
Former Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien was hired to get Jones back on track. If O’Brien succeeds, New England will be a tough out like it was in 2021.
How New England Fails to Meet Expectations
The Patriots have a brutal schedule, so they will consistently face teams with better rosters. They open up with an absolutely brutal four-game stretch: vs. the Philadelphia Eagles, vs. the Miami Dolphins (SNF), at the New York Jets, at the Dallas Cowboys.
From there, New England has nine more games against opponents with an 8.5-game win total or more. That will be a tall order for the Patriots’ limited offense.
Record Prediction: 7-10
>> READ: New England Patriots Fantasy Team Preview
New York Jets
2022 Record: 7-10
2023 Win Total: 9.5
Division Odds: +270
Super Bowl Odds: +1600
The Jets are on HBO’s “Hard Knocks” because they are the most interesting team in the league. They have the raw materials to beat anyone, but how consistent will they be?
How New York Exceeds Expectations
The addition of Aaron Rodgers turns New York’s young, inconsistent offense into a dangerous group. Pair that with New York’s ultra-talented defense and the Jets have a sky-high ceiling.
The Jets are among the few teams that could field a top-10 defense, passing attack and run game. In a best-case scenario, the Jets can go on a real run.
How New York Fails to Meet Expectations
Rodgers is one of the best to do it, but he’ll turn 40 this December. The erosion of his unicorn-like skill set and increased injury risk are on the table. In fact, injuries derailed his final season with the Packers. If you’re a Jets supporter, that’s your biggest concern by a mile.
The second concern is the Jets have a brutal opening schedule: vs. the Buffalo Bills (MNF), at the Dallas Cowboys, vs. the New England Patriots, vs. the Kansas City Chiefs (SNF), at the Denver Broncos, vs. the Philadelphia Eagles.
If New York starts slow, the pressure will be on what is a young Jets team outside of Rodgers.
Record Prediction: 12-5
>> READ: New York Jets Fantasy Team Preview
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