Analysis

12/21/22

4 min read

Larky's Thursday Night Football Parlays for Jaguars vs. Jets

By Josh Larky

thursday night football parlays

Below, you’ll find five Thursday night parlays for Jaguars vs. Jets and three player props I’ve taken ahead of Thursday's clash.

For each parlay, I include the implied odds of it hitting. For example, a +350 parlay has implied odds of 22%. If I’m putting money on this parlay, I expect it to hit more than 22% of the time.

Foundational Player Props

Here, you’ll find my three favorite player props for this game. These props resurface in the parlays section below.

Zonovan Knight OVER 57.5 Yards Rushing

Odds: -110 (52%) on Bet365

  • Knight had 69, 90 and 71 yards rushing in his first three games before putting up just 23 yards against Detroit's strong run defense last week.
  • This line is an overreaction to his poor performance last game.
    • Knight has at least 13 carries in every game.
  • The rain and poor weather conditions will be conducive to each team's running game.

Garrett Wilson OVER 55.5 Yards Receiving

Odds: -110 (52%) on Bet365

  • Wilson has at least 78 yards receiving each of his past four games.
  • Wilson has at least 78 yards receiving in six of his past seven games.
  • The Jaguars get killed by slot receivers, and 276 of Wilson's 458 routes this year (60%) have been out of the slot.
  • Even with poor weather expected, this receiving line is simply too low for what Wilson has done this season, and given the Jaguars are not a strong pass defense.

Tyler Conklin UNDER 20.5 Yards Receiving

Odds: -110 (52%) on Bet365

  • Conklin has been UNDER this number in seven of 14 games this year (50%).
  • I lean towards the UNDER for this game, given the weather conditions and Zach Wilson at QB.
    • Conklin has been UNDER this number in five of eight games played with Zach Wilson this year

Thursday Night Football Parlays

On Monday Night, I debuted a parlay concept in this article where you can sweeten the moneyline odds by making a negatively correlated parlay that's almost certain to hit. The sportsbook algorithms haven't caught on (yet), so we're going back to the well for Thursday night's game.

Note: Parlays are inherently volatile, as they need multiple events to hit at the same time. Please bet responsibly.


I would put equal money on both parlay No. 1 and parlay No. 2, and I explain why below their individual write-ups.

Parlay 1: Jaguars Win + Jets Score 14 or More Points

Odds: +350 (22%) on Bet365

  • Taking the Jaguars moneyline is only +100.
  • We make this +350 by negatively correlating the Jets to score 14 or more points in a loss.
  • The Jets have scored 14 or more points in 10 of 14 games this season.
    • In three of their seven losses, the Jets scored 14 or more points.
    • The Jaguars have allowed opponents to score at least 20 points in nine straight games.

Parlay 2: Jets Win + Jaguars Score 14 or More Points

Odds: +325 (24%) on Bet365

  • Taking the Jets' moneyline is only -120.
  • We make this +325 by negatively correlating the Jaguars to score 14 or more points in a loss.
  • The Jaguars have scored at least 14 points in every game, aside from their Week 5 meltdown against the Texans.

I like taking both these parlays, since if only one hits, we still make a nice profit. If you place $50 on each parlay, that's $100 in. If parlay one hits, you walk away with $225. If parlay two hits, you walk away with $212.50. Even if you think parlay one hits only 50% of the time the Jaguars win, and parlay two hits only 50% of the time the Jets win, you'd still make money in the long run with these odds.

Parlay 3: Jaguars Win + Jets Score 7 or More Points + Knight OVER 57.5 Yards Rushing

Odds: +450 (18%) on Bet365

  • The Jets have scored at least nine points in 13 of 14 games this season.

Parlay #4: Jaguars Win + Jets Score 10 or More Points + Garrett Wilson OVER 55.5 Yards Receiving

Odds: +425 (19%) on Bet365

  • The Jets have scored at least 10 points in 12 of 14 games this season.
  • While parlay three needs fewer points from the Jets, I'm more confident Garrett Wilson's usage is less game-script dependent than Knight's.

Parlay #5: Jets Win + Jaguars Score 10 or More Points + Conklin UNDER 20.5 Yards Receiving

Odds: +425 (19%) on Bet365

  • The Jaguars have scored at least 10 points in 13 of 14 games this season.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these Thursday Night Football parlays. As always, please bet responsibly.

WATCH: Betting the NFL

Tags: Betting, Garrett Wilson, Jacksonville Jaguars See More

Josh Larky

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.

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