Analysis
12/19/22
5 min read
Larky's Monday Night Football Parlays for Rams vs. Packers
Below, you'll find 12 Monday night parlays and one player prop I've taken ahead of tonight's clash between the Rams and Packers.
For each parlay, I include the implied odds of it hitting. For example, a +185 parlay has implied odds of 35%. If I'm putting money on this parlay, I expect it to hit more than 35% of the time.
Foundational Player Props
Here, you'll find my favorite player prop for this game, along with the reasoning behind the OVERS and UNDERS for each player included in my 12 parlays.
When you see that I'm citing AJ Dillon at 69.5 and 74.5 yards, those numbers surface in the parlays at the bottom of the article. Consider this section the important context behind the 12 parlays I took.
Aaron Jones UNDER 60.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: -110 (52%) on Bet365
- Jones has been UNDER this number in eight of 13 games this season (62%).
- The Rams allow just 3.9 yards per carry to opposing RBs, yet the 11th most (7.3) yards per attempt to opposing QBs, via The Edge.
- I'm betting against Jones, since he's been limited on the injury report all week, facing a pass funnel Rams defense.
Jones Receiving OVERS (4.5)
- Jones has at least five receiving yards in all 13 games this season.
Christian Watson OVERS (34.5, 39.5, 49.5)
- Watson has started four games for the Packers (Weeks 10-13, before their Week 14 bye).
- He has at least six targets, three catches, 82 air yards and 48 receiving yards in each game.
- The Rams allow the second-most fantasy points per game to WRs lined up outside, and Watson has played 49% of his snaps out wide since Week 10, per The Edge.
A.J. Dillon UNDERS (69.5, 74.5)
- Dillon has only gone OVER 74.5 yards once (against the Bears in Week 13, who allow 4.8 YPC to RBs, via The Edge).
- Dillon has been UNDER 69.5 rushing yards in 11 of 13 games, and the Rams are stingy against the run (3.9 YPC allowed).
Aaron Rodgers OVERS (169.5, 199.5)
- Rodgers has at least 170 passing yards in 12 of 13 games this season.
- He has at least 200 passing yards in 10 of 13 games this season.
- The Rams are allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt, which is the 11th highest in the NFL, via The Edge.
Baker Mayfield OVERS (149.5)
- Mayfield has at least 155 passing yards in seven of eight games this season, including 230 last week against the Raiders.
Cam Akers OVERS (24.5, 39.5)
- Akers has at least eight carries and 37 rushing yards each of the past four games.
- He has at least 42 rushing yards in three of his past four.
- Akers' rushing prop is currently at 54.5 yards on DraftKings.
Tutu Atwell OVERS (19.5, 24.5)
- Atwell has at least 23 receiving yards in four straight games with at least 48 yards in three of four.
- He had a career-high nine targets and five receptions in Week 14.
Allen Lazard OVERS (24.5)
- Lazard has at least 24 receiving yards in 10 of 11 games this year.
Robert Tonyan UNDERS (39.5, 49.5)
- Tonyan has UNDER 38 yards in 12 of 13 games this season.
Tyler Higbee UNDERS (54.5)
- Higbee has 14 or fewer receiving yards in each of the past three games since the team moved away from Matthew Stafford.
- Higbee has been OVER this number in just one of his past nine games.
Monday Night Football Parlays
Packers Moneyline + Rams OVER 6.5 Points + Packers UNDER 33.5 Points
Odds: -105 (51%) on DraftKings
- The Packers' moneyline is -365 (79%) on DraftKings.
- The Rams have at least nine points in every game played this season.
- The Packers have UNDER 33.5 points in every game this season.
- This is my favorite parlay of the year.
Watson OVER 29.5 Receiving Yards + Jones UNDER 84.5 Rushing Yards + Dillon UNDER 74.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: +110 (48%) on DraftKings
- I'd estimate this hits 60% of the time.
Akers OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards + Jones OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards + Dillon OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards + Atwell OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: -115 (53%) on Bet365
- I'd estimate this hits 65% of the time.
Rodgers OVER 199.5 Passing Yards + Watson OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards + Jones UNDER 60.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: +320 (24%) on Bet365
- I'd estimate this hits 40% of the time.
Rodgers OVER 169.5 Passing Yards + Watson OVER 29.5 Receiving Yards + Tonyan UNDER 39.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: +105 (49%) on DraftKings
- I'd estimate this hits 65% of the time.
Jones UNDER 74.5 Rushing Yards + Akers OVER 39.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: -115 (53%) on DraftKings
- I'd estimate this hits 60% of the time.
Rodgers OVER 169.5 Passing Yards + Jones UNDER 84.5 Rushing Yards + Dillon UNDER 69.5 Rushing Yards + Atwell OVER 19.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: +150 (40%) on DraftKings
- I'd estimate this hits 55% of the time.
Rodgers OVER 199.5 Passing Yards + Watson OVER 2.5 Receptions, 24.5 Receiving Yards + Lazard OVER 24.5 Receiving Yards + Akers OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards + Jones OVER 24.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: +135 (43%) on Bet365
- I'd estimate this hits 55% of the time.
Packers OVER 13.5 Points + Rams UNDER 26.5 Points + Rodgers OVER 169.5 Passing Yards + Mayfield OVER 149.5 Passing Yards + Jones UNDER 74.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: +185 (35%) on DraftKings
- I'd estimate this hits 55% of the time.
Rodgers OVER 194.5 Passing Yards + Watson OVER 39.5 Receiving Yards + Jones UNDER 84.5 Rushing, 4.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: +170 (37%) on DraftKings
- I'd estimate this hits 50% of the time.
Rodgers OVER 169.5 Passing Yards + Jones UNDER 84.5 Rushing Yards, 4.5 Receiving Yards + Akers OVER 39.5 Rushing Yards
Odds: +115 (47%) on DraftKings
- I'd estimate this hits 55% of the time.
Packers OVER 13.5 Points + Rams OVER 6.5 Points + Rodgers OVER 199.5 Passing Yards + Mayfield OVER 149.5 Passing Yards + Akers OVER 39.5 Rushing Yards + Watson OVER 34.5 Receiving Yards + Tonyan UNDER 49.5 Receiving Yards + Higbee UNDER 54.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: +425 (19%) on DraftKings
- I'd estimate this hits close to 35% of the time.
We hope you enjoyed reading through these Monday Night Football parlays. As always, please bet responsibly.
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