Betting
4/11/23
7 min read
Betting 2023 NFL Draft: Analyzing Markets for Top 5 Picks
There are still a little more than two weeks left before the start of the 2023 NFL Draft. Between now and then, an endless stream of news and rumors will impact draft betting markets. Let’s look at how DraftKings and FanDuel have priced the markets for the top five picks.
Betting Draft's Top 5 Picks
1. Carolina Panthers
DraftKings Favorites
- Bryce Young -250
- C.J. Stroud +180
- Anthony Richardson +2000
- Will Levis +6000
FanDuel Favorites
- Bryce Young -250
- C.J. Stroud +170
- Anthony Richardson +2000
- Will Levis +6000
The Carolina Panthers didn’t trade up for No. 1 overall to take anything other than a quarterback.
Since the trade, C.J. Stroud (scouting report) has spent the most time as the primary favorite in this market. Bryce Young (scouting report) jumped past him during the past few days, while Anthony Richardson (scouting report) is a long shot to go first overall.
Right now, these sportsbooks have priced Young as a considerable favorite to be the first pick. There is still plenty of time for that to change, but relevant news is starting to trend toward Young being the first overall pick.
>> READ: Young Visits Panthers for Second Time
2. Houston Texans
DraftKings Favorites
- C.J. Stroud -195
- Bryce Young +195
- Will Anderson +350
- Will Levis +1500
- Anthony Richardson +2000
FanDuel Favorites
- C.J. Stroud -120
- Bryce Young +270
- Will Anderson +550
- Will Levis +1200
- Tyree Wilson +1900
- Anthony Richardson +2000
Unlike the quarterback-driven, first-overall market, DraftKings and FanDuel have a mix of quarterbacks and edge rushers as the favorites to land with the Houston Texans.
DraftKings and FanDuel are two of the biggest sportsbooks on the planet, and they are nearly aligned in the first-overall pick market. There is much less of a consensus in the second-overall pick market, with some notable odds and disparities between these options.
Richardson is the third favorite behind Young and Stroud to be the first overall pick, while Will Levis (scouting report) is ahead of Richardson in the second overall pick market. Just like Young was made the standalone favorite for No. 1 overall, Levis has been streamed during the last few days in the second-overall pick market.
On FanDuel, the Texans are the second favorite at +250 odds to take Levis. Bettors started heavily backing a link between Levis and the Texans during the past few days.
For weeks, there have been rumors the Texans want Young. If you expect Stroud to be a Panther, consider a bet on Young being selected by the Texans. If the Panthers take Young first, there is considerable uncertainty about what the Texans will do. The value is gone on betting Levis to the Texans, but he’s worth considering in parlays once those options are available.
3. Arizona Cardinals
DraftKings Favorites
- Anthony Richardson -105
- Will Anderson +225
- Will Levis +500
- C.J. Stroud +600
- Tyree Wilson +2500
- Chrisitan Gonzalez +3000
- Bryce Young +3000
FanDuel Favorites
- Anthony Richardson +100
- Will Anderson +250
- C.J. Stroud +600
- Will Levis +700
- Christian Gonzalez +2000
- Tyree Wilson +2200
- Bryce Young +2900
- Jalen Carter +2900
You can’t bet on which position the Arizona Cardinals will draft with this pick on FanDuel, but you can on DraftKings. Edge rushers/ defensive linemen are -150, cornerback is +150 and offensive linemen are +700 in that market.
If the Cardinals stay put, they are expected to take a defensive player at No. 3. Alabama edge Will Anderson (scouting report) is -475 on DraftKings to be the first defensive player selected. He’d also fill a significant need for the Cardinals.
If the Cardinals trade out, someone is trading up for a quarterback. In that scenario, Young is the most likely to be gone, while Richardson is priced significantly ahead of Levis at both sportsbooks.
Suppose the Cardinals trade with the Tennessee Titans, who are +115 to select a quarterback with their first pick (No. 11). In that case, I will immediately bet on the Cardinals to take an offensive lineman if +700 odds are still available in that market.
The No. 11 pick is in the range where the three top offensive linemen are expected to go. The Cardinals could use an upgrade at offensive tackle, and the four or five premium defensive players will likely be gone by No. 11.
>> READ: Six Teams Called Cardinals About Trade
4. Indianapolis Colts
DraftKings Favorites
- Anthony Richardson +150
- Will Levis +175
- Will Anderson +200
- C.J. Stroud +2000
- Tyree Wilson +2500
- Jalen Carter +2500
FanDuel Favorites
- Anthony Richardson +150
- Will Levis +200
- Will Anderson +250
- Jalen Carter +2000
- Tyree Wilson +2500
- C.J. Stroud +3500
There is a relative consensus on the first three options in this market, but there are some significant disparities after that.
The Indianapolis Colts are expected to take a quarterback, with Richardson and Levis as the most likely options. On DraftKings, Richardson is -165 to be taken before pick 4.5, and Levis is -130 to be taken before pick 7.5. Oddsmakers at DraftKings expect Richardson to be gone by No. 5.
Regardless of who goes in the top three, the Colts can take a quarterback if that’s what they want. Stroud likely will be gone before the fourth pick, but you can get him at a pretty good value on FanDuel in this market. That’s an option I’ll have on my radar during the next few weeks.
5. Seattle Seahawks
DraftKings Favorites
- Will Anderson +200
- Tyree Wilson +225
- Jalen Carter +350
- Will Levis +1000
- Anthony Richardson +1200
FanDuel Favorites
- Will Anderson +220
- Tyree Wilson +220
- Jalen Carter +400
- Will Levis +1000
- Anthony Richardson +1400
The Sportsbooks order the top five options in this market the same, with minimal odds disparities. On DraftKings, the Seattle Seahawks are -195 to take a defensive lineman or edge rusher, and they are +275 to take a quarterback with their first pick.
If Richardson is still available, the Seahawks are in a position to sit him behind Geno Smith for at least one year. It’s hard to see the Seahawks passing up on that kind of opportunity if it’s available.
Otherwise, Seattle made the playoffs last year, and it is in a position to add a difference-making pass rusher with the fifth pick. If the first four picks are all quarterbacks, Seattle would be thrilled to land Anderson.
