Analysis

11/1/23

13 min read

2023 NFL Week 9 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings

By Ian Miller

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Players are breaking out all over the place at every single position, and we’re here to make sure you know what’s real from fake with our Week 9 dynasty rankings. Our goal is to keep you ahead of the curve so you can make the most optimal decision in your dynasty leagues — and these rankings should absolutely help you do that.

Week 9 Dynasty Rankings

Quarterback Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3+ Premium First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 3+ First-Round Picks

Tier Three

Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks

Tier Four 

Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Tier Nine

Value Estimation: Fourth-Round Pick

Big QB Movers

Will Levis – 18th (previously 36th)

You typically don’t see such an increase in the rankings this late in the season without there being a major injury attached. But what Will Levis did in his NFL debut provides a lot of intrigue — his 34.6 fantasy points are the highest by any quarterback in this rookie class so far, as are his 33.5 passing points.

Even when we dive into the peripherals, his 11.0 adjusted yards per attempt only trailed C.J. Stroud’s Week 4 performance, but Levis’ 13.8 percent passing touchdown rate is the highest by far. He only produced 1.1 rushing points, but his 19.5 percent carry percentage signals there could be rushing production down the line. Levis wasn't a strong prospect, falling to the second round of the draft, but a performance like he just had gives us belief toward a possible high ceiling.

Kirk Cousins – 26th (previously 17th)

Kirk Cousins suffered a crushing Achilles injury this past week that puts him out for at least the rest of the season. That’s absolutely devastating for a quarterback who was the QB4 with 23.3 points per game.

He was also supporting the Minnesota Vikings’ receiving with a 5.8 percent touchdown rate on 39.4 pass attempts per game. This injury clearly fogs up Cousins’ dynasty value, but you simply cannot bury this level of passing production at 35 years old. 

Running Back Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 2+ First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks

Tier Three

Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Early Second-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Eight

Value Estimation: Late Second-Round Pick

Tier Nine

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big RB Movers

Bijan Robinson – 1st (previously 1st)

You may be saying: How is Bijan Robinson a mover when he is still first among all running backs? That’s a fair question. While he didn’t fall in the numeric rankings, the tier between him and the second-ranked running back no longer exists. It’s hard to blame Robinson, because the peripherals with the usage he’s gotten have been solid, and he’s been a legitimate receiving weapon out of the backfield.

But when we look at the Atlanta Falcons’ backfield, he’s posting 0.56 more yards per team rush attempt than Tyler Allgeier despite rushing for a five percent lower carry percentage. Robinson is still the highest-ranked running back, but he can’t be in a tier of his own until the Falcons’ coaching malpractice ends.

Jahmyr Gibbs – 6th (previously 8th)

After a slow start for Jahmyr Gibbs, he’s now up to RB12 after posting 27.6 and 29.9 fantasy point performances in the past two weeks. The Gibbs breakout is officially here, and even though we likely won’t see him posting a 69.5 percent carry percentage when David Montgomery returns, Gibbs is still going to be a high-floor player due to his receiving abilities.

In fact, there has only been four rookie running backs to post a higher target share than Gibbs: Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara and Reggie Bush. 

Aaron Jones – 29th (previously 24th)

Aaron Jones has been banged up, only playing in three games since his 26.7 fantasy point performance in Week 1 — and he hasn’t cleared 10 fantasy points in any of those three games. Even when we look at his season-long peripherals, it’s not a friendly story.

Jones’ 31.3 percent carry percentage would be the lowest since his rookie season, while his 11.9 percent target share would be the lowest since his second season. For someone who is about to turn 29 years old, this appears to be a risky running back profile. Especially when you consider he's no longer in an Aaron Rodgers–level offense. 

Wide Receiver Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: 3 First-Round Picks

Tier Two

Value Estimation: 2 First-Round Picks

Tier Three

Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Six

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Seven

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big WR Movers

CeeDee Lamb – 9th (previously 11th)

If you are worried about CeeDee Lamb’s underperforming production, you shouldn’t be. But there’s no need to worry anymore. His whopping 41-fantasy-point performance in Week 8 has brought him up to WR10 on the season with 18.4 points per game. But possibly even more importantly, his peripherals continue to be right on track — a 24.5 percent target share, 2.76 yards per team pass attempt and a 9.8 average depth of target.

What is good to see for Lamb’s production the rest of the season is that Dak Prescott’s touchdown regression appears to have finally hit. Lamb is now up to a 5.4 percent touchdown rate, which is right where we need it to be with his strong peripherals to eclipse a high-end finish.

Chris Olave – 10th (previously 7th)

Sure, Chris Olave hasn’t been putting up the level of production we projected before the season started. But when we look at the underlying peripherals, it’s hard to get too discouraged about his second season.

The only second-year wide receivers to post at least a 25 percent target share on a 13.0 average depth of target or higher are Calvin Johnson, Justin Jefferson, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Mike Evans, Sammy Watkins and Alshon Jeffery. Even in a down season, there is still elite company to be found for Olave, which should also give us a strong idea that he’s going to be able to produce at a higher efficiency in the second half of the season than he has in the first.

Christian Watson – 37th (previously 33rd)

Christian Watson came into the league as a low-floor prospect, and while his overall peripherals weren’t great, his per-route peripherals still gave hope for him as a solid fantasy producer. But that combination also creates a range of outcomes that not only are quite wide but leave an underwhelming ceiling. So far in 2023, Watson’s per-route peripherals don’t look quite as hopeful, with a 20.3 percent target rate and 1.49 yards per route run.

With a 77.6 percent route participation, he's only producing 8.5 fantasy points per game. There is absolutely reason to be panicked about Watson moving forward.

Tight End Rankings

Tier One

Value Estimation: Early First-Round Pick

Tier Two

Value Estimation: First-Round Pick

Tier Three

Value Estimation: Late First-Round Pick

Tier Four

Value Estimation: Second-Round Pick

Tier Five

Value Estimation: Third-Round Pick

Big TE Movers

Sam LaPorta – 3rd (previously 4th)

Through Sam LaPorta’s first eight weeks in the NFL, he’s posting the second-highest rookie target share ever at 20.1 percent, the second-highest yards per team pass attempt ever with 1.48 and the highest rookie fantasy point per game ever with 16.5.

LaPorta has been sensational in the first half of his rookie season, especially considering we typically see rookies produce better in the second half of the season. This level of peripherals being attached to a high-volume passing offense with strong efficiency is nearly a match made in fantasy heaven. LaPorta is clearly a top-three dynasty tight end, and it’s possible we see him placed higher than that by the end of the season. 

Trey McBride – 9th (previously 14th)

Trey McBride came into Week 8 with the fourth-highest target rate and fifth-highest yards per route run in the league; we just had yet to see him crack 60 percent route participation. That all changed when Zach Ertz landed on injured reserve, and McBride achieved an 87.8 percent route participation.

That helped boost him into a 30.5 fantasy point performance, thanks to a 37.8 percent target share and 2.57 yards per team pass attempt. Now that we, and the Arizona Cardinals, have seen his strong per-route peripherals transform into strong overall peripherals with high route participation, it is wheels up from here on out for McBride, who is absolutely deserving of a top 10 tight end ranking.

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Ian Miller

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Ian Miller attended Washington State University, where most of the time he was building fantasy football models when he should’ve been paying attention to lectures. That’s where he first started building his process that he continue to grow today. It’s a process that gives probability of success and range of outcomes for recruits all the way to ten year NFL veterans. It’s something Ian not only shares with the readers, but also uses in his personal fantasy leagues.