Analysis
10/20/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Week 7 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Davante Adams Bet
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
Follow the team of prop bettors behind this weekly article on Twitter:
William S. (Dr. Profit)
Patrick H. (TackleBoxProps)
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
We’ll also link the picks articles here from Daniel Racz (Underdog). Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
Top Week 7 Player Props
Davante Adams OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 at BetMGM
Davante Adams beat this in three of the first four games and was off by just three yards in the one loss. During that stretch, he had at least eight targets per game, with 50 overall. He’s done very little over the past two Las Vegas Raiders games, to the point he publicly complained to the media. Brian Hoyer should be the quarterback on Sunday for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo, and backups generally target their No. 1 option more frequently because they’re working through read progressions more slowly. Eddie Jackson, the Chicago Bears' top defensive back, is questionable for this game due to an injury.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky
Brandon Aiyuk OVER 65.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -120 on BetMGM
Brandon Aiyuk has beaten this number in three of five games, and his catch rate was low in three of the past four games. He dropped 50 yards of production against Cleveland last week. Narrowed targets are in store for the San Francisco 49ers because Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel are set to miss this contest. The Minnesota Vikings give up the third-most yards to wide receivers and struggle on the perimeter. Aiyuk has played 194 snaps on the perimeter and only 36 in the slot. My primary concern is defensive coordinator Brian Flores is a solid game planner who may try to shut down Aiyuk. Head of DFS Jordan Vanek also expects a big game from Aiyuk.
Bet by: Reynolds, Larky
Jerry Jeudy OVER 45.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Jerry Jeudy has beat this in three of five games and has between five and seven targets in every game. The Denver Broncos are a mess, and this game has some shootout potential. Eric Stokes is out for the Green Bay Packers. Jaire Alexander and Darnell Savage also are questionable, so the Packers could be down three of their top-four secondary options. 45.5 is a very beatable number.
Bet by: Larky, Reynolds
Jordan Love OVER 235.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
Jordan Love has been over this number in three of five games. Quarterbacks vs. Denver are over in four of six games. The two who weren’t are Jimmy Garoppolo and Zach Wilson. Denver allows a league-high 8.8 yards per pass attempt to opposing quarterbacks. The Packers are coming off a bye, and it’s the first game all year the entire skill group will play together healthy.
Bet by: Larky
Jaxon Smith-Njigba OVER 3.5 Receptions
Best Odds: +110 on BetMGM
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been over this number in just two of five games. But, his usage keeps getting better for the Seattle Seahawks. Last week, he ran as many routes as DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Smith-Njigba has at least five targets in four of five games. Arizona gives up the sixth-most receptions per game to wide receivers (15.2), via our free and flagship tool, The Edge. Twelve receivers have at least four catches against the Cardinals already (two per game). Three of Arizona’s games were against the Giants, Commanders and 49ers when Samuel had rib/knee injuries and was used as a decoy, so this number could have been even higher.
Bet by: Larky
Darius Slayton MORE Receiving Yards Than Jahan Dotson
Best Odds: -105 on BetMGM
Jahan Dotson averages 5.2 targets per game, 42 air yards per game and 23 receiving yards per game. Darius Slayton averages 5.0 targets per game, 69 air yards per game and 39 receiving yards per game. The Washington Commanders defense is giving up 41 more yards per game to receivers than the New York Giants defense, via our free and flagship tool, The Edge.
Bet by: Larky
Rashid Shaheed Receiving Yards Ladder: 50, 60, 70, 80 Yards
Best Odds: 50 Yards (+190), 60 Yards (+320), 70 Yards (+500), 80 Yards (+750) on DraftKings
The odds are much worse on FanDuel, and I'd expect DraftKings to move these closer to FanDuel (+168, +240, +350, +490 for 50, 60, 70, and 80 yards, respectively on FanDuel). Rashid Shaheed has at least six targets in three of six games. And he has at least 60 receiving yards in three of six games, with at least 80 yards in two of six.
However, Derek Carr hurt his shoulder in Week 3 and wasn't at full strength again until Week 6. Weeks 3-5, Shaheed totaled zero, 33 and 28 yards. In Weeks 1-2 and 6 (when Carr's shoulder was healthy), Shaheed totaled 89, 63 and 85 receiving yards. I am not saying Shaheed will continue to reach 60 yards in 100 percent of games where Carr is healthy.
However, quarterback play matters for a field stretcher like Shaheed, so having Carr healthy again (Carr led Week 6 quarterbacks with a whopping 518 air yards) is a big boost for Shaheed.
The Jacksonville Jaguars' defense has struggled against big-play receivers (Tank Dell compiled 145 yards, Gabe Davis reached 100 yards, Justin Watson totaled 62 yards, and Deonte Harty had 62 yards). There is some risk Trevor Lawrence will miss tomorrow night's game, and C.J. Beathard will start.
That would likely result in a more conservative game plan for the New Orleans Saints, negatively affecting this ladder bet. However, should Lawrence play, these lines probably move further in our favor with Shaheed. From reports I've read, I'd estimate a 75 percent chance Lawrence plays on Thursday night, given that he was a limited practice participant on Tuesday and Wednesday for the Jaguars.
Bet by: Larky
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