Analysis
9/30/23
9 min read
2023 NFL Week 4 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will look at some of the double stacks, single stacks and mini stacks to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
More Week 4 DFS: Top Plays | How to Handle Chalk
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
Week 4 DFS Slate Analysis
Double Stacks
- Stack: QB Russell Wilson, WR Courtland Sutton, WR Marvin Mims Jr.
- Runback: RB Khalil Herbert
The Chicago Bears' secondary is dealing with key absences and hasn't held any quarterback under 20 DraftKings points this season. The Denver Broncos, led by Russell Wilson, aim to rebound from a disappointing game in Miami, and this a great spot to do so.
Double-stack Wilson — the Bears will try to play zone coverage with the missing players — making Courtland Sutton a better play over Jerry Jeudy. As far as the second piece, it’s Marvin Mims Jr., who will have plenty of deep opportunities. It's hard to imagine Broncos coach Sean Payton not putting him in a full-time role after how well he's made the most of his chances this season.
On the flip side, the Broncos' run defense has struggled recently, making Khalil Herbert a prime candidate for a heavy workload. Considering uncertainties in the Bears' passing game, if you don't stack Justin Fields, prioritizing Herbert is wise.
- Stack: QB Bryce Young, WR Adam Thielen, WR DJ Chark
- Runback: WR Justin Jefferson
Bryce Young is poised for an under-the-radar DFS play this weekend despite having one of his most favorable matchups all year. Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is going to blitz. Young's exceptional ability to process information quickly sets him apart, allowing him to make decisions before the snap. That's a crucial advantage against an aggressive defense.
Adam Thielen has demonstrated his role as the primary target for the Carolina Panthers this season, showing he still can win in the middle of the field, akin to what Chargers WR Keenan Allen accomplished last week. We might not see many big plays, but there's a potential for DJ Chark to make plays down the sideline.
If Miles Sanders cannot play, instead of chasing the deep play to Chark, play Chuba Hubbard and take the full-time running back, who will be Young's safety blanket.
Justin Jefferson enters the weekend with low popularity in DFS, presenting an enticing opportunity. The Panthers will be without safety Xavier Woods. Although their other safeties might not excel in bracketed coverage over Jefferson, his potential for big plays remains intact. Furthermore, the absence of Jaycee Horn on the Panthers' side suggests that Jefferson is poised for multiple significant plays, further enhancing his appeal in this matchup.
The Panthers do not have Woods, and the other safeties will not be great in bracketed coverage over Jefferson. Jefferson is not popular this weekend, which is a great matchup for him. Without Horn in the lineup this week, Jefferson will have multiple big plays.
- Stack: QB Aidan O’Connell, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Davante Adams
- Runback: WR Keenan Allen
Aidan O'Connell starts against the Los Angeles Chargers, offering budget flexibility at $4,000. To spark a shootout, prioritize stars like Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. For the 'run back,' you should play Allen due to a favorable matchup. You can complement him with RB Joshua Kelley or one of the TEs in Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr.
Single Stacks
- Stack: QB Anthony Richardson
- Runback: WR Puka Nacua
Stacking Anthony Richardson is not necessary this weekend, primarily due to the pricing across positions and my belief his ceiling hinges on his rushing ability. The Los Angeles Rams do not contain the edge well, and he will have the ability to escape and make plays running.
The Indianapolis Colts consistently deploy a Cover 3 defense under Gus Bradley. This presents an opportunity for Matthew Stafford to target Puka Nacua, who has garnered 11 of Stafford's 24 pass attempts against Cover 3. It's crucial to note the Rams are dealing with injuries on their offensive line, which could hinder the execution of longer-developing routes, such as those run by Tutu Atwell.
- Stack: QB Justin Fields, TE Cole Kmet
- Runback: RB Javonte Williams, WR Marvin Mims
The Broncos' run defense has been awful this year, and Justin Fields finally saw designed rushing attempts last weekend against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Broncos run defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and he will have the ability to run in this matchup.
Don't feel like you have to play DJ Moore in this one because he likely sees a lot of Patrick Surtain, and they don’t scheme him open like other teams would. The player who likely pays off the price is Cole Kmet, who has as many targets as Moore and plays a position where he can put up a top score with ease.
Mims is a smash play this weekend. The deep ball will be there for him, which should bring more red-zone opportunities. We have not seen the Broncos in a goal-line situation this year, but we believe Williams is the goal-line running back.
Mini-Stacks
- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
- WR Jaylen Waddle, RB James Cook
Miami’s offense has a lot of players to play in this game, but the one being overlooked is Jaylen Waddle. Waddle is coming off a concussion and has not had that blow-up game this year. Expect this to be his spot to shine with all the attention on Tyreek Hill and the run game. Last season, Waddle had two 100-yard games against the Buffalo Bills, and with the way the offense is going, he could have another one.
The Miami Dolphins run defense has played well because they are outscoring teams fast enough for them not to run the ball. James Cook has quietly been one of the most efficient running backs in the NFL. Miami defensive coordinator Vic Fangio will do everything he can to keep Josh Allen from throwing it deep.
- Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
- WR Tee Higgins, RB Derrick Henry
The Tennessee Titans have allowed five wide receivers to have more than 80 yards receiving this year, and all of them have averaged more than 10 air yards per target. Tee Higgins is the only player with more than 10 air yards per target on the Cincinnati Bengals. The opportunities will be there because the Titans' defense will key in on these short routes of Ja’Marr Chase.
Derrick Henry flies under the radar this weekend despite being in a game environment that’s projected to be close and against a defense that hasn’t been great against the run. The Bengals only faced one running back of Henry's caliber this season, Nick Chubb, who managed a big ground game without relying on explosive runs. Playing at home and in a projected close contest, Henry appears poised to receive a workload exceeding 20 touches.
One-Offs
- San Francisco 49ers playmakers
I plan to incorporate a San Francisco 49ers player into each of my lineups because Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle or Brandon Aiyuk will deliver a big performance against the Arizona Cardinals. Lean toward Kittle as your top choice. This is due to the current landscape of the tight end position, where Kittle likely outshines the second-best tight end by a significant margin.
- WR Tank Dell
Tank Dell has led the Houston Texans in targets two weeks in a row, and they need to get him out in space to help slow down the pass rush. Dell is a value play, but don’t mini-stack them because of the offensive scheme the Pittsburgh Steelers are running against DeMeco Ryans.
Defenses
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive line will get after Sam Howell early and often. They are the price-up defense of the week.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Texans have the most injured offensive line in the NFL, which isn't great when going against T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, who are arguably the NFL's best pass-rushing duo.
Baltimore Ravens
If Deshaun Watson is not playing, target the Baltimore Ravens' defense against a rookie quarterback. The Ravens' defense will need to make plays to help out the offense.
Cleveland Browns
The Ravens' offensive line and receivers are not healthy. The Cleveland Browns' defense is playing lights out right now. The Ravens struggled with the Colts, and the Browns are much more talented.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are a contrarian play in spots where you play the run game of Raheem Mostert or De'Von Achane and believe Allen is forced to play like he did against the Jets. Can Allen be patient against a Vic Fangio scheme that will make you methodically go up the field?
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Anthony Richardson | IND | LA | $6,700 | $7,600 |
| QB | Justin Fields | CHI | DEN | $6,600 | $7,200 |
| QB | Russell Wilson | DEN | CHI | $5,800 | $7,500 |
| QB | Bryce Young | CAR | MIN | $5,200 | $6,800 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | SF | ARI | $9,200 | $9,700 |
| RB | Josh Jacobs | LV | LAC | $7,100 | $8,200 |
| RB | Raheem Mostert | MIA | BUF | $6,500 | $7,900 |
| RB | James Cook | BUF | MIA | $6,300 | $6,800 |
| RB | Zack Moss | IND | LA | $6,000 | $7,300 |
| RB | Kyren Williams | LA | IND | $6,000 | $7,600 |
| RB | Miles Sanders | CAR | MIN | $5,800 | $6,600 |
| RB | Alexander Mattison | MIN | CAR | $5,800 | $7,200 |
| RB | De'Von Achane | MIA | BUF | $5,700 | $6,400 |
| RB | Javonte Williams | DEN | CHI | $5,500 | $5,800 |
| RB | D'Andre Swift | PHI | WAS | $5,700 | $7,800 |
| RB | Joshua Kelley | LAC | LV | $5,300 | $6,000 |
| RB | Roschon Johnson | CHI | DEN | $4,900 | $5,300 |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard | CAR | MIN | $4,800 | $5,300 |
| RB | Khalil Herbert | CHI | DEN | $4,700 | $5,800 |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | MIN | CAR | $9,600 | $9,400 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | MIA | BUF | $9,200 | $9,600 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | BUF | MIA | $8,100 | $8,700 |
| WR | Davante Adams | LV | LAC | $8,000 | $8,100 |
| WR | Keenan Allen | LAC | LV | $7,900 | $9,500 |
| WR | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | BUF | $7,600 | $7,400 |
| WR | Chris Olave | NO | TB | $7,100 | $7,900 |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | SF | ARI | $6,900 | $8,000 |
| WR | Puka Nacua | LA | IND | $6,700 | $7,500 |
| WR | Jerry Jeudy | DEN | CHI | $6,600 | $6,600 |
| WR | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | LA | $6,500 | $7,200 |
| WR | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | ARI | $6,200 | $7,600 |
| WR | Jordan Addison | MIN | CAR | $5,700 | $6,400 |
| WR | DJ Moore | CHI | DEN | $5,600 | $6,100 |
| WR | Tutu Atwell | LA | IND | $5,500 | $6,300 |
| WR | Jakobi Meyers | LV | LAC | $5,500 | $6,900 |
| WR | Courtland Sutton | DEN | CHI | $5,300 | $7,100 |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | WAS | PHI | $5,300 | $6,700 |
| WR | Jahan Dotson | WAS | PHI | $4,800 | $5,500 |
| WR | Tank Dell | HOU | PIT | $4,600 | $6,200 |
| WR | Adam Thielen | CAR | MIN | $4,500 | $6,800 |
| WR | Darnell Mooney | CHI | DEN | $4,100 | $5,500 |
| WR | DJ Chark Jr. | CAR | MIN | $4,000 | $6,000 |
| WR | Joshua Palmer | LAC | LV | $4,000 | $6,100 |
| WR | Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | CHI | $3,900 | $4,500 |
| WR | Josh Downs | IND | LA | $3,500 | $5,400 |
| WR | Alec Pierce | IND | LA | $3,400 | $3,700 |
| WR | Calvin Austin III | PIT | HOU | $3,300 | $3,000 |
| TE | George Kittle | SF | ARI | $5,100 | $3,000 |
| TE | Gerald Everett | LAC | LV | $3,600 | $3,000 |
| TE | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | HOU | $3,400 | $5,500 |
| TE | Hayden Hurst | CAR | MIN | $3,300 | $5,400 |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | NO | TB | $3,300 | $4,700 |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | MIA | $3,200 | $3,000 |
| TE | Dawson Knox | BUF | MIA | $3,100 | $5,200 |
| TE | Adam Trautman | DEN | CHI | $2,800 | $3,000 |
| TE | Donald Parham Jr. | LAC | LV | $2,800 | $4,900 |
| DST | Eagles | PHI | WAS | $4,100 | $5,000 |
| DST | Steelers | PIT | HOU | $3,900 | $4,600 |
| DST | Ravens | BAL | CLE | $3,200 | $4,100 |
| DST | Browns | CLE | BAL | $2,800 | $4,300 |
| DST | Dolphins | MIA | BUF | $2,600 | $3,800 |
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