Analysis
9/16/23
9 min read
2023 NFL Week 2 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, including DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership, and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will look at some double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
Double Stacks
- Stack: QB Justin Herbert WR Keenan Allen WR Mike Williams
- Runback: RB Derrick Henry and/or WR Treylon Burks
Los Angeles Chargers offensive coordinator Kellen Moore's adaptability was evident in Week 1 when the Chargers ran the ball more due to Miami Dolphins' defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's strategy. In contrast, the Dallas Cowboys relied heavily on passing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' strong run defense last year.
The Tennessee Titans have consistently limited rushing yards, allowing only 3.6 yards per carry during the past three seasons. In Week 1, they further showcased their defense, holding the New Orleans Saints to just 2.6 yards per carry. However, they've allowed a fair amount of air yards per attempt, ranking 11th during the past three seasons. In Week 1, the Saints averaged the most air yards per attempt at 11.5.
Despite not being a popular choice this week, Justin Herbert has the potential for an explosive matchup. Last year, he surpassed 300 passing yards against the Titans and will likely replicate that success. Utilizing Keenan Allen on deep crossers and targeting Mike Williams downfield will be key.
Williams showed versatility in Week 1; having some slot reps provides a higher floor. In addition, Quentin Johnston, though limited in routes in Week 1, offers value in Herbert stacks, especially for larger field tournaments, given the significant salary difference compared to Allen.
- Stack: QB Trevor Lawrence WR Calvin Ridley WR Christian Kirk
- Runback: RB Isiah Pacheco and TE Travis Kelce
The Jacksonville Jaguars are 3.5-point underdogs at home against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, who come in off a loss. Lean toward Trevor Lawrence in this matchup, especially with Isiah Pacheco and Travis Kelce in my stack. Pacheco's rushing touchdowns can limit Mahomes' fantasy points, and Kelce, as the top tight end, can capitalize on the explosive game environment.
Lawrence has a chance to establish himself as an elite QB with a win that could put the Chiefs at 0-2. This will happen through deep plays involving Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk. While Ridley impressed in Week 1, the Chiefs' defense will try to contain him in Week 2.
This opens up opportunities for Kirk, who performed well against the Chiefs last season, averaging eight receptions and over 80 yards in both games. Being used like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kirk can thrive in this matchup. Ridley's performances will achieve Lawrence’s ceiling, so the more Kirk opens things up, the better the offense will operate. You can play this game in many ways, but this is how to think of stacking it on Sunday.
Single Stacks
- Stack: QB Daniel Jones TE Darren Waller
- Runback: WR Marquise Brown
The New York Giants' performance against the Cowboys was disappointing, but this matchup offers a chance for a rebound. To do that, Daniel Jones should focus on targeting Darren Waller, who could have a Kelce-like impact against the Arizona Cardinals. Waller's success can elevate the entire offense. While it's uncertain who the top wide receiver is, consider Parris Campbell in the slot or Jalin Hyatt for a deep threat if you were to double-stack.
On the Cardinals' side, Marquise Brown is a strong choice. The Giants blitz heavily, and Brown's deep-threat capability will have a chance for big plays. His familiarity with Wink Martindale's defensive scheme from his time in Baltimore adds an advantage. Though running it back isn't essential, it can provide salary relief and encourage more passing from Jones, especially if Brown finds the end zone.
- Stack: QB Anthony Richardson WR Josh Downs
- Runback: WR Nico Collins
Anthony Richardson is a great value pick with high potential, and I'm pairing him with rookie Josh Downs.
The Houston Texans are missing key safeties, making the middle of the field vulnerable, and Downs seems to be the No. 2 option. He saw seven targets in Week 1, and with Richardson, they have a strong connection. While Michael Pittman Jr. is top tier, Downs offers salary relief and gets me to other top options in other games.
For a runback option, Nico Collins is an excellent value. The Indianapolis Colts' weak cornerback situation plays to his advantage. He had an impressive game against the Ravens, with 11 targets, 14.4 air yards per target, and a 26.2 percent target share.
Mini-Stacks
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Seahawks at Lions
- WR DK Metcalf RB Jahmyr Gibbs
Kenneth Walker is a popular choice, but I'm leaning towards DK Metcalf, who is flying under the radar. Expect more 12 personnel from Seattle to protect Geno Smith, which could lead to play-action deep shots for Metcalf.
David Montgomery is projected to be extremely popular, but I'm banking on a breakout game from Jahmyr Gibbs. The team hinted at a slow start for him, but the home opener after beating the Chiefs is the ideal time to ramp things up. Seattle's improved defense in the middle favors Gibbs' speed for explosive runs over Montgomery in the middle. His involvement in the passing game adds value, making this combo a low-rostered, high-impact option.
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Ravens at Bengals
- WR Zay Flowers WR Tee Higgins
Zay Flowers has established himself as the Baltimore Ravens' top option, and this should continue with a banged-up Mark Andrews. The Ravens' strategy of using him out wide and in various roles creates favorable matchups, allowing him to excel, particularly by avoiding Mike Hilton in the Bengals' secondary.
The Cincinnati Bengals had a rough Week 1 on offense but should bounce back against a banged-up Ravens secondary. I'm cautious with Joe Burrow due to the Ravens' scheme that limited big plays last season and their ability to apply pressure. While Tee Higgins and Ja'Marr Chase are viable options, playing both will not justify their salaries. Consider them as one-offs or in a mini-stack with Flowers. Higgins had the deep opportunities last week, and Chase is the more popular choice this week, so lean toward Higgins.
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49ers at Rams
- WR Deebo Samuel WR Tutu Atwell
The San Francisco 49ers will excel in multiple ways this season, and it's time to recognize Brock Purdy's distributing skills. In this matchup, expect Samuel to benefit from screens and crossing routes aimed at avoiding Aaron Donald by getting the ball out quickly.
While many are favoring Puka Nacua, Tutu Atwell impressed more. Nacua had easier catches due to soft coverage, but the 49ers won't give him that space. Atwell, on the other hand, excelled downfield and was heavily involved in motion plays. It's most likely Sean McVay plans to use Atwell to attack these safeties in coverage and showcase Matthew Stafford’s arm.
One-Offs
Rachaad White had a lackluster performance in Week 1, but he's poised for a bounce-back in an ideal matchup. Tampa Bay should exploit the ground and passing game against a Green Bay Packers defense that the Chicago Bears struggled to contain. While White is a popular choice this week, he serves as a valuable salary-saving option at running back, having seen extensive playing time in the previous game.
Defenses
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Cowboys
On FanDuel, the Cowboys are way too cheap for their matchup against Zach Wilson. This is an easy play on that platform, but for DraftKings, they are too priced up.
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Buccaneers
The Bears' offensive line looked awful in Week 1, and the Buccaneers will be blitzing a lot in this matchup. This could lead to multiple sacks and some turnovers, so they are the chalk defense for DFS.
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Falcons
As was mentioned last weekend, the Atlanta Falcons have a good defense, which will cause issues for some teams with young quarterbacks. Jordan Love played well against Chicago, but this Falcons defense will come after him much more than the Bears did, and we will see mistakes. The Packers players are way too popular, and this pick at defense is a leverage play.
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Jets
The New York Jets are too talented to be this low-priced and will give the Cowboys offense fits. The only way they don’t hit value is if Wilson consistently puts them in a bad position, but the offense will be run-heavy for the most part.
Player Pool
| Pos | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Justin Herbert | LAC | TEN | $7,000 | $8,200 |
| QB | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | KC | $6,700 | $7,800 |
| QB | Anthony Richardson | IND | HOU | $6,300 | $7,500 |
| QB | Daniel Jones | NYG | ARI | $6,000 | $7,500 |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | SF | LA | $8,900 | $9,500 |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | NYG | ARI | $8,000 | $8,800 |
| RB | Derrick Henry | TEN | LAC | $7,400 | $8,300 |
| RB | Josh Jacobs | LV | BUF | $7,100 | $7,500 |
| RB | Travis Etienne Jr. | JAX | KC | $6,900 | $8,200 |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | DET | SEA | $6,300 | $5,800 |
| RB | James Cook | BUF | LV | $6,100 | $6,600 |
| RB | David Montgomery | DET | SEA | $5,800 | $6,300 |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | DET | $5,800 | $6,700 |
| RB | Isiah Pacheco | KC | JAX | $5,700 | $5,700 |
| RB | Dameon Pierce | HOU | IND | $5,600 | $6,000 |
| RB | Rachaad White | TB | CHI | $5,500 | $6,200 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | BUF | LV | $8,000 | $8,000 |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | BAL | $7,900 | $8,400 |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | SEA | $7,800 | $8,100 |
| WR | Davante Adams | LV | BUF | $7,600 | $7,500 |
| WR | Calvin Ridley | JAX | KC | $7,200 | $8,300 |
| WR | Keenan Allen | LAC | TEN | $7,100 | $7,800 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | SEA | DET | $7,000 | $7,700 |
| WR | Tee Higgins | CIN | BAL | $6,400 | $7,000 |
| WR | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | HOU | $6,300 | $7,200 |
| WR | Gabe Davis | BUF | LV | $5,800 | $6,500 |
| WR | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | LA | $5,800 | $7,500 |
| WR | Mike Williams | LAC | TEN | $5,700 | $6,700 |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | SF | LA | $5,600 | $6,900 |
| WR | Christian Kirk | JAX | KC | $5,100 | $6,000 |
| WR | Zay Flowers | BAL | CIN | $5,000 | $6,600 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | ARI | NYG | $4,900 | $6,200 |
| WR | Jahan Dotson | WAS | DEN | $4,900 | $6,100 |
| WR | Nico Collins | HOU | IND | $4,800 | $6,200 |
| WR | Odell Beckham Jr. | BAL | CIN | $4,700 | $5,300 |
| WR | Tutu Atwell | LA | SF | $4,700 | $5,500 |
| WR | Treylon Burks | TEN | LAC | $4,500 | $5,400 |
| WR | Skyy Moore | KC | JAX | $4,100 | $5,200 |
| WR | Quentin Johnston | LAC | TEN | $3,900 | $5,100 |
| WR | Jalin Hyatt | NYG | ARI | $3,900 | $4,300 |
| WR | Alec Pierce | IND | HOU | $3,500 | $5,100 |
| WR | Parris Campbell | NYG | ARI | $3,500 | $5,700 |
| WR | Josh Downs | IND | HOU | $3,400 | $5,200 |
| WR | Michael Wilson | ARI | NYG | $3,300 | $4,600 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | KC | JAX | $7,600 | $8,500 |
| TE | Darren Waller | NYG | ARI | $5,500 | $6,600 |
| TE | Sam LaPorta | DET | SEA | $3,900 | $5,100 |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | BUF | LV | $3,300 | $5,200 |
| TE | Jake Ferguson | DAL | NYJ | $3,300 | $5,000 |
| TE | Dawson Knox | BUF | LV | $3,100 | $5,400 |
| TE | Kylen Granson | IND | HOU | $3,000 | $4,700 |
| DST | Cowboys | DAL | NYJ | $4,000 | $4,500 |
| DST | Buccaneers | TB | CHI | $3,200 | $4,100 |
| DST | Falcons | ATL | GB | $2,900 | $4,000 |
| DST | Jets | NYJ | DAL | $2,700 | $3,700 |
| DST | Raiders | LV | BUF | $2,200 | $3,000 |
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