Fantasy
12/19/23
10 min read
2023 NFL Week 15 High-Value Touch Report: Rushing and Receiving Data
The fantasy playoffs often involve several unexpected contributors. That’s the case in Week 15, with Ty Chandler, Devin Singletary, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Zamir White and Jerick McKinnon rounding out the top 12 at the running back.
The same trend occurred at wide receiver with Jordan Addison (No. 1), Chris Godwin (No. 4), Rashee Rice (No. 8), Noah Brown (No. 9) and Joshua Palmer (No. 12). Hopefully, you hit on the correct options or snuck through.
We’ll revisit the team-level and player-level leaders in high-value touches. The visual below shows the team leaders in goal-to-go (GTG) drives, including the rush share, raw rush totals and touchdown rate.
The Kansas City Chiefs upped that total with their backup running backs scoring in close, though it came in creative ways. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos feel like the outlier or that they're due for touchdown regression.
Last week, in the Week 14 High-Value Touch Report, I included a similar list but forgot to set the GTG target total to zero. That added Jalen Hurts because we know he dominates when the Philadelphia Eagles inch closer to the goal line. The visual below is sorted by GTG opportunities (rushes plus targets).
Hurts is the only quarterback among the high-value touch leaders, besides Josh Allen, with 13 rush attempts in GTG situations. Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler, Zack Moss and D’Andre Swift continue to look like touchdown regression candidates.
Below, we’ll examine red zone GTG touches and opportunities. The context for these touches is important, so we’ll consider the potential game script that led to the usage. This information helps identify which players might be on the verge of scoring more touchdowns and fantasy points — and which players aren’t.
Given the small sample size, we sometimes find that players don’t regress quickly or that the data becomes more noisy than meaningful. The information will be broken down by red zone and GTG rushing and receiving data to find usage patterns and expected fantasy points.
Red Zone Rushing
Raheem Mostert keeps scoring touchdowns like Jamaal Williams did last season on the Detroit Lions. Mostert led with seven red zone rush attempts in Week 15, four of which came in GTG chances. He scored two touchdowns on those four GTG carries, as the Miami Dolphins dominated the New York Jets 30-0. The Dolphins' defense caused four turnovers, limiting the offensive output for De'Von Achane.
Sunday night, the Jacksonville Jaguars kept it close with the Baltimore Ravens until the fourth quarter. Lamar Jackson struggled to find production through the air, and Gus Edwards ranked second with six red zone carries in Week 15.
Edwards had four red zone attempts in GTG situations, where he scored his touchdown. Strangely, Jackson had zero red zone rush attempts but had 12 carries for 97 yards. It's Jackson's second-highest rushing yardage total this season.
Aaron Jones returned from a knee injury and garnered five red zone carries, tying him for third with Chuba Hubbard. The Green Bay Packers trailed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, causing Green Bay to have issues establishing the run against a beatable pass defense.
Jones had the fourth-highest team rush share at 76.5 percent, but Jordan Love was the only other Packer with more than one carry.
Since Week 10, the Packers rank 10th in pass rate (at 61.1 percent) and 23rd in rush rate (at 38.9 percent). They also rank third in expected points added (EPA) per dropback behind the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys in that same period.
That gives us a glimpse at how the Packers are finding success through the air. Don't expect vintage Jones with an efficient rushing output and a near-elite receiving role.
Hubbard has been solid recently as one of the cheapest ZeroRB targets. He dominated the ground game with his third straight game of 20 or more carries. In Week 15, Hubbard's 61.1 percent rush share ranks 10th. In the past three games, Hubbard ranks sixth with a 64.2 percent rush share, indicating a high-end workload.
Unsurprisingly, Hubbard's 12 red zone rush attempts put him fifth in the past three games, as seen below.
Eight rushers have 10 or more red zone attempts in the past three contests: Joe Mixon, Mostert, Zack Moss, Kyren Williams, Hubbard, Alvin Kamara, James Conner and Pollard. Ride Hubbard as a mid-range RB2 with a high-end workload.
Philadelphia Eagles' Backfield
Early in Monday night's game, the Philadelphia Eagles deployed D'Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell interestingly in the red zone. Swift and Gainwell tied with three red zone carries in the first half. Swift finished with four red zone attempts, two of which came in GTG situations.
Unfortunately, Hurts stole two short-yardage touchdowns. Hurts has 24 GTG carries and has scored on 50 percent of his rush attempts. He only trails Mixon (26) and Mostert (25) in GTG carries. The only other rushers with 20 or more GTG rush attempts, scoring 50 percent of the time, are Hurts, Christian McCaffrey and Edwards.
Swift's overall workload — a 47.4 percent rush share and 10 percent target share — hovered near his season-long averages. At first, it seemed like Gainwell could eat into Swift's workload, but his Week 15 rush share (15.8 percent) has remained close to his season-long rush share (16.1 percent).
Swift had 2.28 yards before contact per attempt against Seattle, similar to his season-long average of 2.14. Expect Hurts to continue stealing the touchdowns, limiting Swift's upside in the Eagles' backfield as a touchdown-dependent RB2.
Red Zone Receiving
In Week 15, Curtis Samuel finished with five of his nine targets in the red area. He rewarded fantasy managers by catching two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Logan Thomas finished as the only other Washington Commanders pass catcher with one red zone target.
Terry McLaurin had a massive game, catching six of his 12 team-high targets for 141 yards and one score. Samuel might seem like the preferred red zone option, but he has seven red zone targets since Week 10. Unsurprisingly, the Commanders tied for the fourth-fewest red zone drives since Week 10. That indicates a low likelihood of Samuel repeating this type of game.
Below, we have the red zone receiving leaders in targets from Weeks 10-15 to provide the context of where the Commanders’ pass-catchers land.
In Week 15, the Lions’ top fantasy options delivered, including WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE Sam LaPorta. St. Brown had four red zone targets, and LaPorta had three. The rookie tight end scored a touchdown on all three red zone targets, as Jared Goff tossed five touchdowns against the Broncos.
Since Week 10, St. Brown ranks second with 12 red zone targets, tying him with Calvin Ridley. LaPorta has been über efficient since Week 10, scoring five receiving touchdowns on six red zone opportunities.
Let's talk about Kansas City's top pass catchers. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice had three red zone targets each, and Rice scored one touchdown. Rice's receiving touchdown came on a unique formation and play call.
Patrick Mahomes lined up next to McKinnon, who took the direct snap as Rice motioned from somewhat of a tight end spot, and McKinnon tossed him the ball for a score. While it might seem fluky for Rice, the team is finding ways to feed him the ball as their top pass-catcher.
The visual above shows the leaders in targets per route run (TPRR) since Week 10. Rice ranks 12th in TPRR at 27.9 percent among wide receivers and tight ends with a minimum of 30 targets. He has established himself in a full-time role, running routes on 98.7 percent of the team's pass plays. Rice's stock will keep rising if he continues to post WR1-type numbers. He ranks 11th in expected points per game (EP/G) before Week 15.
Meanwhile, this was Kelce's lowest receiving yardage total since Week 9. He had three straight games with 15 points per reception (PPR) or higher, so we shouldn't panic too much after a down performance.
For context, Kelce ranks 48th in TPRR at 19.7 percent out of 56 qualified receivers and tight ends since Week 10. It's notable that Kelce hasn't been outproducing a top-12 receiver, but he's still a top-10 tight end.
Goal-to-Go Rushing
Behind Edwards and Mostert, who each had four GTG carries in Week 15, we have three quarterbacks tied with three: Allen, Mahomes and Bryce Young. Allen was the only one to score a rushing touchdown. That performance was an outlier for Young. Surprisingly, the Carolina Panthers kicked three field goals, beating the Falcons and earning their second win on the season.
Mixon scored a rushing touchdown on his three GTG rushing attempts. He only had 10 carries for 47 rushing yards in a high-scoring affair with the Minnesota Vikings. The Cincinnati Bengals leaned on the pass to beat the Vikings in overtime. They had the league's sixth-highest pass rate in Week 15 (68.1 percent).
It's worth pointing out that Mixon posted his lowest rush share at 45.5 percent, compared with a season-long share of 69.2 percent, as seen in the scatter plot above. Meanwhile, Chase Brown had a season-high rush share of 31.8 percent, giving him three straight games with 25 percent or higher.
Sometimes, we have a tough matchup and one to fade. That was the case with Cincinnati's rushers against Minnesota's rush defense. Since Week 8, the Vikings have the 12th-best rush defense success rate, seventh-best explosive rush rate (5.6 percent) and ninth-lowest yards before contact per attempt (1.26).
That explains why Mixon set season lows. However, the Bengals needed to score 21 points in the fourth quarter to push for overtime.
Since Week 10, we have four rushers with 10 or more GTG carries: Mixon (13), Mostert (11), McCaffrey (11) and Conner. The Arizona Cardinals lost 45-29 yet Conner ran well against the 49ers. Two of Conner's 15 rush attempts came in GTG situations, including his rushing score.
Emari Demercado, Kyler Murray and Michael Carter also contributed to the team's 7.8 yards per rush attempt. The Cardinals rank third in yards per attempt at 4.9 behind the Dolphins (5.1) and Ravens (5.0).
Though the 49ers are an elite defense, they rank tied for sixth in opponent rushing yards per attempt at 4.6 since Week 8. The 49ers allow the ninth-most yards before contact per attempt, meaning opposing rushers can create yards before contact.
I briefly highlighted Demercado as a deep sleeper before the NFL Draft based on his Speed Score. Conner ranks 16th in EP/G before Week 15, indicating a high-end RB2 role, which is fun in a small sample.
Goal-to-Go Receiving
It's not a dream that Edwards-Helaire had two GTG targets in Week 15. After Isiah Pacheco dominated the Chiefs' backfield in the past two seasons, Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon took over with Pacheco out.
Edwards-Helaire caught a six-yard touchdown in the third quarter against the Patriots. Surprisingly, he finished second behind Rice in receiving yards. Edwards-Helaire caught all four targets for 64 receiving yards, including a big-time 48-yard reception.
McKinnon also caught his lone GTG target for a touchdown. Kansas City ranked 12th in running back high-value touches heading into Week 15, so Edwards-Helaire and McKinnon added to that total. Since Week 10, the Chiefs have the fourth-most GTG drives at 12, tied with the Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, 49ers and Jaguars.
After missing two straight weeks, Pacheco could return in Week 16, so the Chiefs' backfield seems noisy.
