Fantasy
12/12/23
8 min read
2023 NFL Week 14 High-Value Touch Report: Rushing and Receiving Data
Let's look at the team-level leaders sorted by goal-to-go (GTG) rushing attempts since Week 8. The Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions make up the top six teams, as seen in the visual below.
Most of those teams make sense, given the touchdown opportunities for the Saints, Ravens, Jaguars and Lions. While the Texans and Colts might surprise us, their top running backs are producing on the ground.Â
The visual below shows the bottom 10 teams in GTG drives, with the Jets, Raiders and Patriots having fewer than five. That doesn't surprise us because they've been some of the more inefficient offenses in recent weeks.
Next, let's peek at the player-level data. Using the same Week 8 cutoff, the top eight players either garner a hefty volume share or play in a high-end offense. Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, Zack Moss, Austin Ekeler and Javonte Williams round out the top five, as seen below.
We'll discuss Moss later, but we would expect the touchdown rate to regress in his favor moving forward. The same goes for Williams, Devin Singletary and Tony Pollard. One might expect a higher scoring rate, assuming the role sticks.Â
Below, we’ll examine red zone GTG touches and opportunities. The context for these touches is important, so we’ll consider the potential game script that led to the usage. This information helps identify which players might be on the verge of scoring more touchdowns and fantasy points — and which players aren’t.
Given the small sample size, we sometimes find that players don’t regress quickly or that the data becomes more noisy than meaningful. The information will be broken down by red zone and GTG rushing and receiving data to find usage patterns and expected fantasy points.
Red Zone Rushing
Mixon had the ninth-highest rush share at 65.6 percent in Week 14 and the most red zone rush attempts (seven). Five of Mixon's seven red zone attempts came in GTG situations, and he scored a touchdown. It's the second consecutive game where rookie RB Chase Brown showed some explosiveness, but it came as a receiver. Brown caught all three targets for 80 yards and a score.Â
On the ground, Brown had a 25 percent rush share in Week 14 compared with a 29 percent share in Week 13. He went from a speculative waiver wire pickup last week to a high-end backup with stand-alone value. There's a good chance Brown soaks up most of Mixon's workload if the veteran misses time down the stretch.Â
After talking up Moss as a bounce-back candidate in Week 14, he fell flat on his face against the juicy matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals' run defense. Heading into Week 14, the Bengals ranked last in rush defensive success rate and second-to-last in explosive rush rate at 10.5 percent and yards before contact per attempt allowed.
Unfortunately, Moss struggled with 13 carries for 28 rushing yards. Six of his 13 carries came in the red zone, with zero in GTG situations.Â
The graphic above shows the running back leaders in opportunities for Week 14. Moss' 21 opportunities (13 carries, eight targets) tied him for ninth in Week 14, and typically that's a solid process. As the saying goes, process over results. But we have small samples each week. Stick with Moss next week because it's top-eight running back volume.Â
Red Zone Receiving
Last week, Demarcus Robinson's name popped up, but it felt like we'd seen this story before. In Week 14, Robinson tied teammate Cooper Kupp with four red zone targets, and both had a receiving touchdown in a high-scoring affair with the Ravens. Robinson also tied Kupp with a target share of 26.3 percent. Puka Nacua was close behind at 21.1 percent.Â
The Los Angeles Rams have a consolidated target tree, and Robinson ran a season-high 42 routes after 21 in Week 12 and 20 in Week 13. That could be a good sign for Robinson as a deep-league receiver option. However, it won't surprise us if Kyren Williams garners more targets next week instead of Robinson, so be cautious.
Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore and Rashee Rice tied with three red zone targets in Week 14, but only Rice scored. Moore also took a red zone carry for a 16-yard rushing touchdown. He lined up as the quarterback, faked the ball to Justin Fields and took it around the left sideline for a touchdown.
Though Moore didn't score as a receiver in the red zone, he caught six of his team-leading 10 targets for 68 receiving yards, including a 38-yard touchdown catch. Moore is one of three wide receivers with a rushing and receiving touchdown in a single game in 2023.
In the last three games, Rice has six red zone targets — with 17 total on the season. Unsurprisingly, the rookie has earned 29 targets or the 12th-highest target share at 28.7 percent in the past three contests. After zero games with a target share north of 19 percent, he has three of more than 25 percent.Â
Rice is running more routes, garnering targets and producing while earning Patrick Mahomes' trust. We should value Rice as a midrange to high-end WR2 with multiple data points suggesting more confidence in the role staying the same.
Goal-to-Go Rushing
The next closest red zone rushers behind Mixon were Travis Etienne, Kyren Williams and Bijan Robinson, who tied with three (on five GTG attempts). Etienne and Robinson scored a rushing touchdown. Williams did not, though he boasted the second-best rush share at 83.3 percent in Week 14 behind Ezekiel Elliott.Â
The Jaguars struggled against the Cleveland Browns, averaging four yards per play on 74 plays. Since Jacksonville played from behind, Etienne only mustered 14 carries for 35 rushing yards and caught all four targets for 37 receiving yards. The Browns can be beaten on the ground, allowing the fifth-most explosive rush plays at 9.2 percent and the second-most yards after contact per attempt.
In GTG situations, Etienne has five rushing touchdowns on 14 attempts (No. 16). Besides Jalen Hurts, Etienne is the only rusher with 14 or more GTG carries and less than 20 rushing yards. Hurts falls into a different bucket, given his league-leading 12 GTG rush attempts at the goal line with nine scores. The Jaguars use Etienne a bunch. He had seven goal-line rush attempts, tying him for fifth with seven other rushers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers forced the Atlanta Falcons to throw. Desmond Ridder logged the second-most pass attempts of the season at 40 (his most passing attempts (47) came against the Washington Commanders).
Thus, Robinson tied a season-low of 10 rushing attempts, not including the one game where he barely played due to headaches. The bonus in Robinson's profile involves the receiving game, as he hauled in five of seven targets for 54 receiving yards.Â
The graphic above shows the season-long leaders in rush and target shares among running backs through Week 14. We pinned the top 12 running backs in target share.
As seen above, Robinson rocks a 15.6 percent target share on the season (No. 4), with 21.4 percent one in his past three games.Â
Though Robinson and Arthur Smith frustrated fantasy managers, the rookie boasts a high-end to elite profile. Before Week 14, Robinson averaged 7.1 rushing (No. 31) and 6.6 receiving expected points per game (No. 6). He falls into the elite bucket with Ekeler, McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley.
The Falcons have the fourth-best running back schedule in Weeks 15 and 16 against the Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts, so expect Robinson to feast in the playoffs.Â
Goal-to-Go Receiving
As mentioned earlier, Demarcus Robinson and Kupp remained heavily involved in scoring opportunities. Kupp had three GTG targets; Robinson had two. Robinson tied with Moss, Moore and Bijan Robinson with two GTG targets. Matthew Stafford tends to look toward his receivers in GTG situations, especially in the past few weeks. Since Week 10, Robinson, Kupp and Nacua have four GTG looks, combining for five touchdowns.Â
Using the same Week 10 cutoff, Ridley and CeeDee Lamb round out the top two with five targets in GTG situations.
Among the five players tied for third with four targets since Week 10, only David Njoku hasn't scored a touchdown, as seen in the visual below.Â
It's Njoku's fault because he makes too many explosive plays.
Joking aside, Njoku ranked second on the Browns in targets (8), catching six for 91 receiving yards and two scores. Among players with five targets, Njoku had 25 percent of his plays qualify as explosive in Week 14, meaning receptions going for 16 or more receiving yards.Â
The graphic above shows the season-long leaders in GTG targets, including touchdowns. We can't complain about Njoku's explosiveness and high-value touch role because he's garnered seven GTG targets on the season, tying him for seventh.
