2023 NFL Draft: Ranking Potential of Top Running Back Prospects
Analysis 4/24/23
After spending the past few months sifting through college running back prospect data for the 2023 class, I attempted to compile the data into grades and rankings. This article details how the players ranked based on the data inputs. We'll discuss the process and then examine some flaws due to unavailable data. The goal is to provide a quick look via the conditional formatting at the production, speed, and evaluations from The 33rd Team's Scouting Department.
>>READ: 2023 NFL Draft Big Board
If you missed the past articles regarding several 2023 running back prospects, we'll link them below. Also, don't forget to check out the 2023 Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Guide, which is easy to digest and helpful. Oh, and it's free.
- Four Uber-Productive Backs
- Five Runners With Standout Metrics
- Four Running Backs With Projected Day 3 Draft Capital
- Round 3-4 Running Back Prospects Worth Monitoring
- The Projected Top 3 Running Back Prospects
RB Rankings
Process, Data Inputs
Throughout my research of the running back prospects, the data was eventually compiled into one spreadsheet with conditional formatting. Then the metrics were combined into one overall number to provide a quick look at how each player ranked based on the 2022 college data. Six data points were included: Running back dominator, receiving yardage market share, Speed Score, age, broken plus missed tackles per attempt (BT+MT/Att) and grades from The 33rd Team scouts.
In the process of messing with the spreadsheet, other rushing and receiving metrics were removed and added to attempt to have a semi-balanced approach instead of leaning more toward a rushing or receiving-heavy profile. While it might seem simple, I focused on those six metrics used regularly in my player analysis.
Running back volume aside, we want athletic backs who produced via the rush and receiving game. It's also helpful if players generate yards by breaking and forcing missed tackles, plus, we incorporated grades from The 33rd Team Scouting Department. After the draft, we added draft capital to see if the overall rankings or scores shift. However, it may not significantly change other than the team contexts impacting their value.
Potential Flaws
Any data compilation and research has some flaws. One flaw in the data involves the Speed Score inconsistencies via pro day vs. NFL Combine numbers. Not every running back received an invitation to the combine, with some running at their pro day. I prefer to look at Speed Scores for running backs as a glimpse into their straight-line speed and athleticism, though sometimes players don't participate in the workout drills. Another issue includes the missing data for certain FCS running backs. We also have some players that didn't record Speed Scores or grades from The 33rd Team Scouting Department, most likely indicating a potential injury or they'll be a seventh-round pick or UDFA.
Also, we didn't include the career metrics in the evaluation, which could have boosted or lowered the running back prospects. For instance, if a player peaked in 2021 or smashed throughout their career but not in 2022, it would hurt or help their value.
Let's look at the top-12 running back prospects via their overall score. Then, we'll touch on a few players to monitor, plus some other names to put on the watch list.
Top-12 Running Back Prospects
The top-12 running back prospects includes notable names, with Zach Charbonnet (scouting report) standing out. Charbonnet typically ranks third or fourth behind Bijan Robinson (scouting report) and Jahmyr Gibbs (scouting report). Though Charbonnet comes off his most productive season as a rusher and receiver, other backs commanded a higher percentage of their team's total offense. A few include Devon Achane (scouting report), Sean Tucker (scouting report) and Chase Brown (scouting report).
Israel Abanikanda (scouting report) may not offer the broken and missed tackles, but his rushing production, Speed Score and age boost him up the board. With the low receiving profile and backup grade, Abanikanda possesses a mixed bag. Deuce Vaughn (scouting report) flashed a balanced rushing and receiving production, but his poor Speed Score doesn't help the outlier size.
Vaughn had off-the-chart production, with a 92 percent Running Back Dominator (RB Dominator) and 18 percent Receiving Yardage Market Share (RecYdMS) in 2021. We believe Vaughn is a potential starter, aligning with the scouting team's evaluation.
RB Prospects to Monitor
Though Deneric Prince only played in eight games last year, he boasted jaw-dropping athleticism with an elite Speed Score (93rd percentile) and Freak Score (95th percentile). Since 2010, Prince has tied for the 32nd-best Speed Score out of 450 qualified backs. Tank Bigsby's (scouting report) BT+MT/Att and Speed Score boosted his score, though the production metrics remained mediocre. Let's see if Bigsby's tackle-breaking ability translates to the NFL.
Hunter Luepke (scouting report) played fullback but was also listed as a tight end. Luepke may turn into a Kyle Juszczyk, Patrick Ricard or Alec Ingold, who provide sneaky receiving skills. Luepke posted a 53 percent RB Dominator and 15 percent RecYdMS at North Dakota State. Unfortunately, we don't have any advanced stats for Luepke, though it could be irrelevant given his likely position in the NFL, but his athleticism stood out.
Interestingly, DeWayne McBride (scouting report) ranks 21st overall, and there have been mixed feelings about him in the fantasy community. However, we know McBride produced tons of rushing yards and touchdowns but not much as a receiver. McBride's stock takes a hit without any Speed Score data, though the juicy BT+MT/Att and rushing dominance intrigue us. While not included in the data set here, McBride posted one of the highest yards after contact rates among all qualified running backs.
One final running back prospect in the names to monitor section is Chris Rodriguez (scouting report) out of Kentucky. Rodriguez boasts the 22nd-best BT+MT/Att with the 17th-most YAC/Att. Like McBride, Rodriguez provided most of his value via the ground game, though he stayed for a fifth year of college and had a better RB Dominator in 2021 (64 percent vs. 52 percent). Monitor McBride and Rodriguez as early-down backs that could find themselves in a Damien Harris-type role.
Digging Deep
We'll close out the article digging deep into 2023 running back prospects to find deep-league options. Unfortunately, these players didn't receive grades from The 33rd Team scouts, hinting they might end up as undrafted free agents. However, they're worth monitoring because they flashed at least one standout metric.
Lew Nichols, out of Central Michigan, led the nation in rushing yards in 2021, translating into a 91 percent RB Dominator plus a 10 percent RecYdMS. Nichols has the 37th-highest all-purpose yards in a single season since 2005 out of 7,725 qualified backs in the database. Unfortunately, Nichols dealt with injuries in 2022 that hindered his overall production, though the 2.5 YAC/Att (No. 128) and 15 percent BT+MT/Att (No. 121) in 2021 tempers the excitement.
Fresno State RB Jordan Mims had the fifth-best RB Dominator at 82 percent between Tyjae Spears (scouting report) and Tucker. However, Mims stayed for a fifth season to pile up the rushing production. Thankfully, Mims also had a respectable eight percent RecYdMS in 2021 and three percent in 2022. The age and lack of production before 2022, plus weak underlying metrics, put him into the Round 7 or UDFA category.
Arizona's Xazavian Valladay ranks as one of the oldest running back prospects in the 2023 class. However, he flashed the second-best RB Dominator in 2022 at 89 percent. Like Mims, Valladay stayed in college for a fifth season after four years at Wyoming. Valladay notably had four straight seasons with a 10 percent RecYdMS. Age aside, Valladay's balanced rushing and receiving profile gives him an intriguing skillset. That could earn him a third-down role to begin his NFL career.
One final back to put on the watch list is Emari Demercado out of TCU. He had a solid Speed Score in the 83rd percentile. Demercado shared the backfield with Kendre Miller (scouting report), plus quarterback Max Duggan (scouting report) factored into the ground game. Though he's an older back that peaked in his fifth college season, Demercado's athleticism makes him a fascinating player. Think a heavier Raheem Mostert, with slightly less speed.
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