Analysis
4/3/23
7 min read
2023 NFL Draft: Top 3 Running Back Prospect Profiles
We've covered 17 running back prospects, with the latest four being backs with projected Rounds 3-4 draft capital. We can't discuss running back prospects without touching on the top three projected backs. As many have noted, the 2023 class looks deep, and we might find value outside the top trio. Make sure you're keeping tabs on The 33rd Team's 2023 NFL Draft Board. It provides valuable insights you won't find anywhere else.Â
>> READ: Tight Ends With Round 2 Draft Capital
How do these running back prospects compare to past players from a production standpoint? Do they have standout skills?Â
Top 3 2023 RB Prospects
Bijan Robinson
The consensus top running back prospect in the 2023 class is Bijan Robinson (scouting report). He dominated as a sophomore with a 75 percent running back dominator, then exceeded the raw numbers. As a junior, Robinson finished with 1,578 yards rushing and 18 touchdowns on the ground, translating to a 54 percent running back dominator. Robinson posted back-to-back seasons with a receiving yardage market share in the double digits as a sophomore (12 percent) and junior (11 percent).Â
Robinson compared closely to Javon Ringer, Bishop Sankey and Tevin Coleman based on his college production, size and speed. Other upside comparisons, given the NFL careers, include Jamaal Charles and Aaron Jones. We could toss out Jones and Ringer since they went in the fifth round. Charles also weighed 200 pounds with a near-elite 40-yard dash (4.38), so there's a size and speed difference to Robinson.
Robinson's 4.46 40-yard dash gave him an 82nd-percentile Speed Score. With his other workout metrics, he posted above-average numbers with an 83rd-percentile Freak and Explosion Score. Given Robinson's projected first-round draft capital, it should give him a chance to impress in Year 1. When we add the first-round potential, Robinson's comps shift to Dalvin Cook, Breece Hall and J.K. Dobbins, though all went after where Robinson projects.Â
Robinson's Advanced Metrics
Robinson ranked 12th in yards after contact per attempt at 3.9, with teammate Roschon Johnson (scouting report) right next to him at 4.0. Using a threshold of at least 50 carries, Robinson posted the fifth-best broken plus missed tackle rate at 32.2 percent. As one of the best runners in the class, he ranked 49th in Stuff Rate, meaning 13.6 percent of his carries went for zero or fewer yards.
Robinson is also a capable pass-catcher. He tied for sixth in yards per route run at 2.4 among backs with 25 college targets. Robinson flashed receiving efficiency with the highest yards per target (10.1), tied with Kenny McIntosh (scouting report). Wherever Robinson lands, he projects to command a three-down workhorse role.Â
Robinson's Early Outlook
In The 33rd Team's most recent mock draft, the scouting department slotted Robinson to the Dallas Cowboys at pick No. 26. On Underdog, Robinson's ADP already hovers as a borderline first-round pick, indicating the hype and elevated price. It's no surprise as a complete running back prospect in a relatively deep class.
Jahmyr Gibbs
The knock on Jahmyr Gibbs (scouting report) seems to be his weight, which was 199 pounds at the NFL Combine. We could argue all day whether Gibbs' weight and BMI of 29.4 matter, but it's another data point and part of the puzzle. Many productive fantasy options were less than 200 pounds, including Austin Ekeler, Jamaal Charles, James Cook and Nyheim Hines. On the flip side, we have numerous backs who didn't fare well in the NFL.Â
Thankfully, Gibbs' 4.36 40-yard dash translates into an 86th-percentile Speed Score. Gibbs ranks first in the class with a career-receiving yardage market share of 17 percent. Evan Hull (scouting report) bested Gibbs in 2022 at 22 percent, but his career mark is 13 percent. Gibbs ranked 12th in receiving yard market share, tied with another back from this class Deuce Vaughn (scouting report), since 2010.Â
We haven't even touched on the rushing production for Gibbs, and the running back prospect profile already excites us. Though Gibbs never reached the arbitrary 1,000-yard rushing mark, he posted a career 57 percent running back dominator. At Georgia Tech, Gibbs totaled 1,211 yards and 1,370 at Alabama.
Based on the college production, size and speed, Gibbs compares to Kenneth Gainwell and Tyler Goodson. When adding the projected second-round draft capital, the comps for Gibbs include Travis Etienne, Giovani Bernard and Cam Akers since 2010. Hopefully, Gibbs produces more like Etienne and Akers than Bernard, though the latter two backs weigh around 15 pounds more.
Gibbs' Advanced Metrics
Gibbs had the fifth-most targets at the running back position, with a quality 2.1 YPRR (No. 12) and 8.2 YPT (No. 9). From a real-life standpoint, he ranked 10th in Points Earned Per Route (PE/route) and in EPA per target, per SportsInfoSolutions. Unsurprisingly, Robinson ranked fourth in EPA/target and fifth in PE/route.Â
Gibbs averaged 3.4 YAC/Att (No. 32), with a solid BT+MT/Att at 25.8 percent (No. 25). Those are quality rushing metrics, as one of the lighter backs in the 2023 class. One minor concern involves his high stuff rate. Gibbs' stuff rate indicates 23.2 percent (No. 184 out of 200) of his runs went for zero or fewer yards. He did flash speed, and the ability to break and evade tacklers, which should continue in the NFL.Â
Gibbs' Early Outlook
The 33rd Team evaluators mocked Gibbs to the Miami Dolphins in the second round. That would be a fun fit since the Dolphins already have several weapons with elite speed, making Gibbs an enticing fantasy option. He checks several boxes in the running back prospect profile, especially as a pass-catcher.
Gibbs has the skills we drool over in the fantasy realm, and his early Underdog ADP puts him near Cook, Jones, D'Andre Swift, Dameon Pierce, and Dobbins. Gibbs' upside comparison is Jones with better draft capital or Swift.
Zach Charbonnet
After two seasons at Michigan, Zach Charbonnet (scouting report) feasted at UCLA. Charbonnet peaked as a senior with a 60 percent running back dominator, 20 points higher than his career percentage of 40. He had the highest rushing touchdown adjusted market share at 93 percent among the 2023 running back prospects. At 6 feet, 214 pounds, Charbonnet posted a respectable 12 percent receiving yardage market share as a senior, which bodes well for a potential three-down role in the NFL.
While Charbonnet's 4.53 40-yard dash doesn't pop off the page, he still possesses above-average athleticism with a Speed Score in the 60th percentile and Explosion Score in the 78th percentile. Some fun names arise when considering Charbonnet's production, speed and projected second-round draft capital. His top comps include Ameer Abdullah, Kenneth Dixon, Akers, Duke Johnson and Le'Veon Bell since 2010. We'll weed some out based on size and capital, which leaves Akers and presents an interesting comp.
Charbonnet's Advanced Metrics
Unsurprisingly, Charbonnet boasts above-average advanced stats, evidenced by his 3.5 YAC/Att (No. 25) and 23.6 percent BT+MT/Att (No. 43). However, where Charbonnet stood out includes the 10th-best Stuff Rate at 9.7 percent and the 17th-lowest rate hit at the line of scrimmage (28.2 percent).
That indicates his ability to create yards before and after contact, making him an enticing option as a rusher. Charbonnet earned the 18th-most targets at the position, with a solid 1.8 YPRR (No. 27) and 7.3 YPT (No. 28). Don't sleep on Charbonnet's receiving ability, though it's likely due to an offense focused around him.Â
Charbonnet's Early Outlook
Charbonnet's three-down skillset is evident in the underlying metrics and when watching him. He's a tough runner to bring down that can match the physicality of a defensive lineman or linebacker. While Charbonnet doesn't have explosive speed, he has the footwork and skill to avoid tacklers and take the run outside of the box.
Even as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, Charbonnet can break tackles and create yards after the catch, with the fifth-best rate among backs with 25 targets. In dynasty and redraft leagues, Charbonnet is the cheapest of the three. Overall, he's a balanced running back prospect that could be a value based on the early ADP.Â
