Analysis
11/8/23
9 min read
2023 Fantasy Football Week 10 Projections: Goff, Lions Poised For Strong Showing
Using machine learning, I’ve built a model that projects player usage and fantasy performance each week. Below, you can find the model’s 2023 Week 10 projections.
Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, their projected points in half-PPR leagues and their projected rank.
Write-ups for interesting and notable players will be found under each position.
Disclaimer: I wouldn’t recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. Though this model can aid in betting decision-making, it wasn’t modeled with that in mind.
Quarterbacks
| Player | Att. | Comp. | PsYds | PsTD | Rush | RshYds | RshTDs | FFPTs | Rank |
| Josh Allen | 34 | 24 | 295 | 2.1 | 6 | 38 | 0.4 | 24.2 | 1 |
| Joe Burrow | 36 | 25 | 260 | 2.3 | 2 | 8 | 0.2 | 19.8 | 2 |
| Justin Herbert | 33 | 22 | 264 | 2.1 | 2 | 5 | 0.1 | 19.2 | 3 |
| C.J. Stroud | 34 | 21 | 294 | 1.8 | 2 | 11 | 0.1 | 18.7 | 4 |
| Justin Fields | 37 | 22 | 254 | 1.5 | 5 | 29 | 0.3 | 18.6 | 5 |
| Lamar Jackson | 30 | 21 | 218 | 1.5 | 8 | 46 | 0.5 | 18.5 | 6 |
| Jared Goff | 36 | 24 | 306 | 1.9 | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 18.3 | 7 |
| Dak Prescott | 31 | 21 | 248 | 2.3 | 3 | 13 | 0.2 | 18.3 | 8 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 32 | 19 | 245 | 1.9 | 3 | 12 | 0.2 | 18.0 | 9 |
| Geno Smith | 32 | 21 | 252 | 2.0 | 2 | 10 | 0.1 | 17.9 | 10 |
| Russell Wilson | 30 | 20 | 219 | 1.5 | 4 | 37 | 0.2 | 17.8 | 11 |
| Kyler Murray | 30 | 19 | 187 | 1.5 | 6 | 39 | 0.3 | 17.7 | 12 |
| Sam Howell | 41 | 27 | 271 | 1.2 | 3 | 20 | 0.2 | 16.9 | 13 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 35 | 24 | 218 | 1.4 | 4 | 23 | 0.1 | 16.4 | 14 |
| Jordan Love | 33 | 19 | 235 | 1.4 | 3 | 18 | 0.2 | 16.2 | 15 |
| Bryce Young | 39 | 25 | 235 | 1.8 | 3 | 13 | 0.1 | 16.1 | 16 |
| Baker Mayfield | 33 | 22 | 235 | 1.6 | 3 | 10 | 0.1 | 15.5 | 17 |
| Brock Purdy | 30 | 21 | 251 | 1.6 | 2 | 3 | 0.1 | 15.5 | 18 |
| Will Levis | 33 | 20 | 272 | 1.1 | 3 | 7 | 0.1 | 15.2 | 19 |
| Deshaun Watson | 35 | 22 | 220 | 1.2 | 3 | 15 | 0.2 | 15.1 | 20 |
| Gardner Minshew | 35 | 22 | 241 | 1.4 | 2 | 12 | 0.1 | 15.0 | 21 |
| Mac Jones | 36 | 23 | 228 | 1.7 | 3 | 5 | 0.1 | 15.0 | 22 |
| Derek Carr | 35 | 23 | 222 | 1.7 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 14.4 | 23 |
| Kenny Pickett | 35 | 21 | 219 | 1.2 | 3 | 11 | 0.2 | 14.3 | 24 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 33 | 21 | 163 | 1.6 | 4 | 25 | 0.1 | 14.2 | 25 |
| Zach Wilson | 30 | 18 | 173 | 1.4 | 2 | 10 | 0.1 | 12.4 | 26 |
| Tommy DeVito | 38 | 24 | 239 | 0.6 | 4 | 17 | 0.1 | 12.2 | 27 |
| Aidan O'Connell | 30 | 19 | 163 | 1.3 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 11.0 | 28 |
C.J. Stroud (QB4), Houston Texans
C.J. Stroud has held a top 10 quarterback projection for several weeks. Now, after his impressive Week 9 performance and several key starters on their bye in Week 10, Stroud makes a strong case for a top-three ranking.
The 24 rookie quarterbacks since 2000 who scored 30 or more fantasy points in a single game averaged 19 fantasy points in the following week. Stroud's performance propelled him into QB1 territory, and there's a strong likelihood he will maintain this status for the foreseeable future.
Jared Goff (QB6), Detroit Lions
Fresh off the team’s bye, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions aim to keep their momentum going. Goff, with an average of 271 passing yards per game, ranks among the top five quarterbacks in passing yards per game. This has translated into favorable outcomes for Detroit's receiving corps.
However, it's worth noting Goff's 1.5 passing touchdowns per game place him outside the top 10 in this category. This affects his fantasy potential and the receiving upside of his pass catchers.
The lack of passing touchdowns has benefited Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Detroit ranks in the top 10 in rushing touchdowns per game, positioning both running backs as beneficiaries of the Lions' scoring opportunities on the ground.
Dak Prescott (QB7), Dallas Cowboys
The Dallas Cowboys appear to have hit their stride during the past month, leading the NFL in EPA per play. A significant part of the Cowboys' recent offensive success is attributed to QB Dak Prescott, who has been the No. 1 fantasy quarterback for the past month on a per-game basis. Prescott has also put up back-to-back performances with more than 300 yards and three touchdowns.
Last week, Prescott ranked as the QB2, trailing only Stroud, who had an extraordinary week with 41.8 fantasy points. This week, Prescott is set to face the New York Giants, a team that is fairly competent in defending opposing quarterbacks.
The Giants are allowing the seventh-fewest points per game. However, it's essential to note this doesn't make them a strong defense. Prescott comfortably maintains his QB1 status.
Wide Receivers
| Player | Targets | Receptions | RecYds | RecTDs | HPPR | PPR | Rank |
| Stefon Diggs | 10 | 7 | 91 | 0.7 | 17.0 | 20.8 | 1 |
| Keenan Allen | 11 | 7 | 88 | 0.7 | 16.8 | 20.0 | 2 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 10 | 8 | 94 | 0.5 | 16.7 | 20.4 | 3 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 8 | 6 | 92 | 0.7 | 16.6 | 19.6 | 4 |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 11 | 7 | 79 | 0.6 | 15.0 | 18.5 | 5 |
| DJ Moore | 11 | 8 | 77 | 0.4 | 14.5 | 18.5 | 6 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10 | 5 | 87 | 0.4 | 13.7 | 16.4 | 7 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 10 | 7 | 72 | 0.4 | 13.5 | 16.8 | 8 |
| Mike Evans | 9 | 6 | 76 | 0.4 | 12.9 | 15.7 | 9 |
| Adam Thielen | 10 | 6 | 65 | 0.5 | 12.9 | 16.1 | 10 |
| Nico Collins | 7 | 5 | 73 | 0.4 | 12.3 | 14.7 | 11 |
| DK Metcalf | 7 | 4 | 62 | 0.6 | 11.9 | 13.9 | 12 |
| Amari Cooper | 9 | 5 | 68 | 0.4 | 11.9 | 14.6 | 13 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 4 | 63 | 0.5 | 11.7 | 13.6 | 14 |
| Tyler Lockett | 7 | 5 | 60 | 0.6 | 11.7 | 14.0 | 15 |
| Terry McLaurin | 9 | 6 | 70 | 0.2 | 11.6 | 14.8 | 16 |
| Chris Godwin | 9 | 6 | 63 | 0.3 | 11.6 | 14.4 | 17 |
| Garrett Wilson | 10 | 6 | 58 | 0.5 | 11.5 | 14.4 | 18 |
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 5 | 63 | 0.4 | 11.5 | 14.2 | 19 |
| Diontae Johnson | 10 | 6 | 65 | 0.3 | 11.2 | 14.1 | 20 |
| Jordan Addison | 8 | 5 | 53 | 0.5 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 21 |
| Marquise Brown | 8 | 4 | 46 | 0.6 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 22 |
| Davante Adams | 9 | 5 | 54 | 0.3 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 23 |
| Tee Higgins | 6 | 4 | 54 | 0.4 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 24 |
| George Pickens | 7 | 4 | 51 | 0.4 | 10.2 | 12.1 | 25 |
| Tank Dell | 6 | 4 | 58 | 0.4 | 10.0 | 11.9 | 26 |
| Zay Flowers | 7 | 5 | 56 | 0.3 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 27 |
| Chris Olave | 8 | 5 | 51 | 0.4 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 28 |
| Courtland Sutton | 7 | 5 | 50 | 0.4 | 9.6 | 11.9 | 29 |
| Gabe Davis | 5 | 4 | 56 | 0.3 | 9.5 | 11.4 | 30 |
| Drake London | 6 | 4 | 49 | 0.4 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 31 |
| Darnell Mooney | 8 | 5 | 51 | 0.2 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 32 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 6 | 4 | 47 | 0.3 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 33 |
| Calvin Ridley | 7 | 4 | 50 | 0.3 | 9.0 | 11.1 | 34 |
| Josh Downs | 6 | 4 | 48 | 0.3 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 35 |
| Elijah Moore | 8 | 5 | 47 | 0.2 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 36 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 4 | 41 | 0.4 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 37 |
| Deebo Samuel | 4 | 3 | 43 | 0.2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 38 |
| Tyler Boyd | 5 | 4 | 36 | 0.5 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 39 |
| Michael Thomas | 6 | 4 | 44 | 0.3 | 8.0 | 10.0 | 40 |
| Jahan Dotson | 7 | 4 | 43 | 0.2 | 7.9 | 10.1 | 41 |
| Romeo Doubs | 6 | 3 | 40 | 0.4 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 41 |
| Christian Watson | 5 | 2 | 45 | 0.3 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 42 |
| Curtis Samuel | 6 | 4 | 46 | 0.2 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 43 |
| Darius Slayton | 7 | 4 | 49 | 0.1 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 44 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 4 | 2 | 39 | 0.3 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 45 |
| K.J. Osborn | 6 | 3 | 33 | 0.3 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 46 |
| Demario Douglas | 5 | 3 | 36 | 0.3 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 47 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 5 | 3 | 35 | 0.3 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 48 |
| Michael Wilson | 5 | 3 | 41 | 0.2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 49 |
| Robert Woods | 6 | 3 | 36 | 0.3 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 50 |
| Jayden Reed | 5 | 2 | 41 | 0.2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 51 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 4 | 2 | 49 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 52 |
| Quentin Johnston | 4 | 3 | 31 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 7.5 | 53 |
| Josh Reynolds | 4 | 3 | 36 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 54 |
| DJ Chark | 4 | 2 | 32 | 0.3 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 55 |
| Allen Lazard | 4 | 2 | 27 | 0.3 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 56 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 5 | 3 | 29 | 0.2 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 57 |
| Trey Palmer | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0.4 | 5.7 | 6.7 | 58 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0.3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 59 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 3 | 28 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 7.1 | 60 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 4 | 27 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 62 |
| Alec Pierce | 4 | 2 | 29 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 63 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 72 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 2 | 30 | 0.2 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 64 |
DJ Moore (WR6), Chicago Bears
With Justin Fields as his starting quarterback, DJ Moore has been delivering an average of 17.4 HPPR points per game. Through nine weeks, the only three receivers with more HPPR points per game are Tyreek Hill (21.1), A.J. Brown (18.9) and Stefon Diggs (17.8).
While Moore isn’t a locked-and-loaded starter in the same vein as that elite group, it's challenging to justify anything other than his status as a low-end WR1.
With Fields expected to return in Week 10 and an enticing matchup against the Carolina Panthers on the horizon, Moore is undoubtedly a must-start player.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR16), Deebo Samuel (WR38), San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers have a surplus of offensive talent. Also, players returning from injury usually take some time to regain their full production.
This situation bodes well for Brandon Aiyuk, who has been used primarily as a flex option during Deebo Samuel's absence. Notably, the primary beneficiaries of Samuel's absence have been George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey.
With Samuel expected to return in Week 10, Aiyuk is projected to see a 10 percent uptick in yards per reception. Additionally, he faces a favorable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team allowing top 10 points per game to the wide receiver position.
Samuel should receive significant attention, but due to the uncertainties surrounding his return from injury, he remains a somewhat risky flex option.
Marquise Brown (WR22), Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray is set to start this week, adding an element of uncertainty to the Arizona Cardinals' offense. Marquise Brown has quietly been a consistent top 24 option at wide receiver, primarily playing with QB Josh Dobbs. With Murray's return, we have every reason to be optimistic about Brown moving forward.
Still, Dobbs (26.8 percent) and Clayton Tune (38.1 percent) targeted Brown at a higher rate than what he has historically experienced with Murray (19.1 percent). While there is a lot to be excited about regarding Brown's potential, he can only be considered a low-end WR2 option until we see how Murray fares.
Running Backs
| Player | Rushes | RushYards | RushTDs | Targets | Receptions | RecYds | RecTDs | HPPR | PPR | Rank |
| Christian McCaffrey | 20 | 79 | 0.5 | 5 | 3 | 40 | 0.2 | 18.2 | 19.9 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 19 | 79 | 0.7 | 4 | 3 | 20 | 0.1 | 16.7 | 18.4 | 2 |
| Breece Hall | 16 | 87 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 0.1 | 15.7 | 17.1 | 3 |
| Derrick Henry | 18 | 64 | 0.7 | 4 | 3 | 32 | 0.1 | 15.6 | 17.1 | 4 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 18 | 68 | 0.6 | 4 | 3 | 26 | 0.1 | 15.5 | 17.1 | 5 |
| Austin Ekeler | 16 | 47 | 0.5 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 0.2 | 15.5 | 17.7 | 6 |
| Tony Pollard | 17 | 77 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 0.2 | 15.5 | 16.9 | 7 |
| Alvin Kamara | 16 | 45 | 0.3 | 7 | 6 | 42 | 0.2 | 14.8 | 17.6 | 8 |
| Rachaad White | 15 | 54 | 0.5 | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0.1 | 13.9 | 15.8 | 9 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 14 | 65 | 0.7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 0.0 | 13.6 | 14.6 | 10 |
| Joe Mixon | 16 | 55 | 0.6 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 0.2 | 13.4 | 14.7 | 11 |
| David Montgomery | 17 | 67 | 0.8 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0.0 | 13.3 | 13.9 | 12 |
| Bijan Robinson | 13 | 63 | 0.3 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 0.2 | 13.2 | 14.8 | 13 |
| Josh Jacobs | 19 | 73 | 0.5 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0.2 | 13.0 | 13.8 | 14 |
| Aaron Jones | 12 | 49 | 0.3 | 5 | 3 | 37 | 0.2 | 12.9 | 14.6 | 15 |
| Saquon Barkley | 14 | 55 | 0.2 | 7 | 5 | 33 | 0.1 | 12.6 | 15.1 | 16 |
| Brian Robinson Jr. | 16 | 58 | 0.6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0.1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 17 |
| Najee Harris | 12 | 44 | 0.5 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 0.1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 18 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 10 | 45 | 0.3 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 0.3 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 19 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 13 | 56 | 0.4 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 0.1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 20 |
| James Cook | 12 | 71 | 0.3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 0.1 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 21 |
| Khalil Herbert | 10 | 49 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 0.1 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 22 |
| Alexander Mattison | 15 | 60 | 0.3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 0.1 | 10.3 | 11.2 | 23 |
| James Conner | 12 | 50 | 0.4 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0.1 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 24 |
| Jaylen Warren | 7 | 34 | 0.4 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 0.1 | 9.8 | 11.1 | 25 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 12 | 52 | 0.3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0.1 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 26 |
| Javonte Williams | 9 | 45 | 0.3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0.2 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 27 |
| Gus Edwards | 11 | 42 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 28 |
| Zack Moss | 9 | 32 | 0.5 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 0.0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 29 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 7 | 43 | 0.3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0.1 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 30 |
| Tyjae Spears | 7 | 29 | 0.3 | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0.0 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 31 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 13 | 32 | 0.2 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 0.1 | 8.6 | 10.2 | 32 |
| Dameon Pierce | 10 | 43 | 0.3 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 0.1 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 33 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 9 | 33 | 0.4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 0.1 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 34 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 7 | 32 | 0.3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0.1 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 35 |
| Kareem Hunt | 9 | 30 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 0.1 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 36 |
| Jerome Ford | 14 | 55 | 0.3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.0 | 8.4 | 8.8 | 37 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 8 | 36 | 0.4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0.1 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 39 |
| A.J. Dillon | 8 | 29 | 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 0.1 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 40 |
| Antonio Gibson | 4 | 13 | 0.2 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0.1 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 41 |
| Samaje Perine | 3 | 12 | 0.1 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0.1 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 42 |
| Devin Singletary | 11 | 45 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 43 |
| Justice Hill | 9 | 33 | 0.3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 7.2 | 44 |
| Rico Dowdle | 6 | 25 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0.1 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 45 |
| Latavius Murray | 5 | 24 | 0.4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.0 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 46 |
| Miles Sanders | 6 | 19 | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 47 |
| Dalvin Cook | 4 | 19 | 0.1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 48 |
| Joshua Kelley | 7 | 23 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0.1 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 49 |
Travis Etienne (RB2), Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Etienne belongs to the select group of five bell cow running backs who command more than 65 percent of their team's total rushing attempts. Among this group, only McCaffrey has managed to score more touchdowns.
We love talking about "passing shootouts," but the Week 10 matchup between the 49ers and the Jaguars appears to be a rushing shootout.
McCaffrey is undoubtedly a locked-and-loaded RB1, but it's worth noting that since Week 3, only three running backs have exceeded 100 fantasy points: McCaffrey, Etienne and Raheem Mostert. Etienne and McCaffrey are the only two truly mega-elite running backs at this time.
David Montgomery (RB12), Jahmyr Gibbs (RB19), Lions
Unless Lions coach Dan Cambell and OC Ben Johnson make an unexpected shift in their approach, it appears Gibbs is set to play the 1B to Montgomery's 1A.
Montgomery is expected to lead the backfield in carries and touchdowns, but his efficiency could take a hit of about 10 percent upon his return from injury.
While Gibbs is still projected for 14 total touches, the lack of substantial touchdown potential makes it challenging to justify his status as anything other than an RB2.
Bijan Robinson (RB13), Atlanta Falcons
For the first time this season, Bijan Robinson isn't projected to be a top-12 running back. His decline started with the “headache game,” but as Robinson continued to lose touches to Tyler Allgeier — inside and outside of the red zone — it's evident why his projections are no longer optimistic.
For much of the season, Robinson was projected for more than 45 percent of Atlanta's rushing attempts. Now, he's below that threshold, essentially sharing the backfield with Allgeier (RB26).
It's important to note Robinson is an exceptional player in the air and on the ground (generational, even). He appears to be a more dynamic option than Allgeier, and Robinson’s statistics back that claim. But until Arthur Smith uses Robinson as the standout talent he is, he remains nothing more than an RB2 with massive upside.
Tight Ends
| Player | Targets | Receptions | RecYds | RecTDs | HPPR | FPPR | Rank |
| T.J. Hockenson | 10 | 8 | 64 | 0.5 | 13.2 | 16.9 | 1 |
| Mark Andrews | 6 | 5 | 56 | 0.5 | 11.1 | 13.4 | 2 |
| Sam LaPorta | 7 | 5 | 60 | 0.4 | 10.8 | 13.3 | 3 |
| George Kittle | 6 | 4 | 56 | 0.4 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 4 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 8 | 6 | 45 | 0.4 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 5 |
| Cole Kmet | 7 | 6 | 45 | 0.4 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 6 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 2 | 15 | 0.2 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 7 |
| Kyle Pitts | 6 | 3 | 46 | 0.4 | 8.7 | 10.4 | 8 |
| Jake Ferguson | 4 | 3 | 39 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 9 |
| Trey McBride | 7 | 4 | 41 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 10.3 | 10 |
| Dalton Schultz | 7 | 4 | 41 | 0.3 | 8.1 | 10.1 | 11 |
| Hunter Henry | 5 | 3 | 36 | 0.4 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 12 |
| Logan Thomas | 6 | 4 | 40 | 0.2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 13 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 3 | 39 | 0.3 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 14 |
| Evan Engram | 7 | 5 | 37 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 15 |
| Gerald Everett | 4 | 3 | 32 | 0.4 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 16 |
| David Njoku | 6 | 4 | 31 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 17 |
| Luke Musgrave | 4 | 3 | 32 | 0.2 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 18 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 5 | 3 | 27 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 19 |
Dalton Kincaid (TE5), Buffalo Bills
With Dawson Knox on injured reserve, Dalton Kincaid has come into his own. Heading into Week 10, Kincaid boasts three consecutive double-digit fantasy performances.
In Week 9, Kincaid commanded a 34.4 percent team target share, marking the fifth-highest target share for any tight end in any game this season.
It's evident Kincaid has become a favored target within the Buffalo Bills’ offense, and his recent performance justifies considering him as a weekly starter moving forward.
Taysom Hill (TE7), New Orleans Saints
After the past few weeks, I've made the decision to incorporate Taysom Hill's passing, rushing and receiving projections. The machine learning model wasn't originally designed to analyze a player such as Hill, but since Week 6, Hill has been the fantasy TE1.
While Hill is projected for 9.5 fantasy points, he remains one of the most challenging players to project. Still, someone needs to do it.
My model projects Hill for one passing completion for 10 yards, five rushes for 28 yards and 0.4 rushing touchdown, in addition to his receiving stats. It's challenging to argue against starting Hill, given his recent performances in the last month.
However, he is undoubtedly one of the riskiest players to start. It's a high-risk, high-reward situation, to say the least.
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