Analysis
11/12/23
6 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Takeaways from Every Week 10 Game
The article below details one need-to-know takeaway from each NFL Week 10 contest, aimed at providing readers with immediately actionable fantasy football information.
Top 4 Takeaways
Breece Hall's Upside Increases
New York Jets RB Breece Hall seized control of the backfield’s two-minute drill role, hogging 10 of 13 possible snaps. Hall briefly assumed the role in Week 6, edging out No. 2 RB Michael Carter six-to-four, but Carter regained control in the following weeks.
Hall also maintained his prominent minority role in third- and fourth-and-long situations, taking five of thirteen such snaps.
The two-minute drill role is extremely valuable for fantasy purposes as it grants the running back access to soft defensive fronts created by the defense’s shift toward deep-field, prevent-oriented coverage schemes. The development significantly increases Hall’s weekly upside, pushing him toward the elite RB1 tier because he likewise owns the early-down rushing role and scoring position role.
Buy Low on Demario Douglas
As detailed in our Week 8 article, injuries suffered by the New England Patriots Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers Kendrick Bourne (ACL tear) and DeVante Parker (concussion) being out cleared the way for rookie inside/outside WR Demario Douglas to assume the featured pass-catcher role.
Douglas’ 16 targets in Weeks 9-10 led the team by five.
The table below reflects Douglas’ Weeks 9-10 usage and ranks his per-route and scoring data in parentheses among 27 NFL wide receivers with at least 10 targets during that span.
| Demario Douglas in Weeks 9-10 | Receiving Usage & Data |
| TPRR - YPRR | 23.9% (No. 14) - 2.07 (No. 11) |
| PPR Points Per Game | 12.45 (No. 14) |
| Perimeter % - Slot % | 59.8% - 40.2% |
New England faces soft pass defenses and/or elite passing offenses in nearly every game after its Week 11 bye, creating a buy-low opportunity for the ascending rookie.
Winston Replaces Carr; Chandler Replaces Mattison
New Orleans Saints QB Jameis Winston replaced Derek Carr following a brutal hit that forced Carr from the game because of a throwing shoulder injury and a concussion. The shoulder injury could indicate a re-injury of his early-season AC joint sprain.
Winston added a downfield component to New Orleans’ passing game, increasing his pass catchers’ fantasy-scoring ceilings for Carr’s impending absence. However, New Orleans has its bye in Week 11.
Winston attempted 44 percent of his 25 passing attempts at least 15 yards downfield, the highest rate among 24 NFL quarterbacks with at least 10 passing attempts in Week 10.
Minnesota Vikings backup RB Ty Chandler now projects as the team’s Week 11 starter. No. 1 RB Alexander Mattison suffered a concussion, and running backs average 1.8 games missed due to the injury, per doctor of physical therapy Adam Hutchison’s Injury Report. No. 2 Cam Akers suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 10.
Montgomery Returns To 1B Role Behind Gibbs
Detroit Lions rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs retained a fantasy-friendly role despite RB David Montgomery’s (ribs injury) return to the lineup.
The table below reflects the Detroit backfield’s Week 10 usage and results.
| DET RBs in Week 10 | Jahmyr Gibbs | David Montgomery |
| Rush Att. - Yards - TD | 14 - 77 - 2 | 12 - 116 - 1 |
| Routes - Rec./Tgt. - Yards - TD | 18 - 3/5 - 35 - 0 | 9 - 0/0 - 0 - 0 |
| Passing-Down Snaps | 5 | 3 |
| Green Zone Snaps | 5 | 4 |
| Red Zone Snaps | 7 | 7 |
| PPR Points | 26.20 | 17.60 |
Gibbs is a locked-in RB1 moving forward. Montgomery is a safe RB2.
Remaining Storylines
Buy Low on Adam Thielen
Carolina Panthers WR Adam Thielen is averaging 11.10 points-per-reception (PPR) points per game since the team’s Week 7 bye, 9.98 points less than the fifth-ranked 21.08 points he averaged in Weeks 1-6.
Thielen's dip in production comes after the Panthers faced a trio of stout slot-coverage units. He managed to earn double-digit target totals in two of three games. Thielen faces the slot receiver-friendly Tennessee Titans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers following his Week 11 bout with the Dallas Cowboys.
Keep Rolling With Keaton Mitchell
The Baltimore Ravens’ electric rookie RB Keaton Mitchell averaged more than 11 yards per rushing attempt for the second straight week, this time adding a 32-yard reception. Among 91 NFL running backs with at least 12 rushing attempts, Mitchell’s 14.3 yards per rushing attempt ranks No. 1.
Mitchell handled 20 percent (two) of Baltimore’s running back passing-down snaps and 12.5 percent (one) of red zone snaps. He can be started as a Zero-RB RB2 or 12-team flex option moving forward.
Devin Singletary Clear Starting Candidate
The Houston Texans leaned heavily on fill-in starting RB Devin Singletary, funneling him 30 rushing attempts and two targets with RB Dameon Pierce still recovering from a likely high-ankle sprain. Singletary remained highly efficient despite the outrageous volume, averaging 5.0 yards per rushing attempt.
The performance tees him up for high-volume workloads in the coming weeks. Three of Houston’s next four opponents rank in the bottom 12 in yards allowed per rushing attempt.
Calvin Ridley No Longer Weekly Starter
Jacksonville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley earned just three targets this week. Coach Doug Pederson had two weeks to reincorporate Ridley as an offensive focal point, but that didn't happen this week.
Among 93 NFL wide receivers with at least 25 targets, Ridley’s 19.2 percent targets per route run (TPRR) rate ranks No. 56, and his 10.57 PPR points per game rank No. 48.
George Pickens Loses Starter Designation
Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin removed No. 2 WR George Pickens from the starting lineup, apparently punishing Pickens’ for his Week 9-usage-related comments. Pickens is averaging just 8.57 PPR points per game with No. 1 WR Diontae Johnson (hamstring strain) back in the lineup.
No longer entitled to elite volume and unable to earn it on his own, Pickens is just a matchup-based flex player moving forward.
Don't Bail on Will Levis Yet
Titans rookie QB Will Levis attempted a career-high 28.2 percent of passes at least 20 yards downfield but finished with single-digit fantasy points (5.96) for the second consecutive week.
His aggression keeps his ceiling potential intact, but Tennessee’s Week 11 game against the Jaguars’ weak pass defense is a must-succeed situation for his short-term fantasy viability.
Murray Is Top-12 Starter
Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray showed no ill effects in his return from ACL reconstruction, shredding the Atlanta Falcons defense for 33 yards rushing and one touchdown on six rushing attempts. He attempted passes 15-plus yards downfield on 31.3 percent of passing attempts, which requires complete weight transfer from one leg to another.
Murray’s lack of passing touchdowns likely keeps his trade-acquisition cost artificially low for another week. He is a top-12 starter moving forward.
Cowboys’ Passing Game Is NFL’s Most Fantasy-Friendly
Dallas Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy has embraced the passing game in the past three weeks. QB Dak Prescott averaged 36.67 passing attempts per game, tying for the sixth-most during that span.
Prescott has responded positively, averaging a league-leading 360.67 yards passing and 3.67 touchdowns passing per game. Prescott’s successes elevate all Dallas pass catchers to fantasy relevancy.
Start Passing-Game Assets vs. Commanders
The Washington Commanders’ high-volume passing offense and near-league-worst pass defense combine for a fantasy-friendly passing game matchup. Washington’s opponents are averaging 40.09 dropbacks per game — the eighth most in the NFL — and score at a rate of 45.1 percent, second-most in the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith threw for a season-high 369 yards passing and two touchdowns in Week 10, and WR Tyler Lockett (23.20 PPR points) and DK Metcalf (16.80 PPR points) produced top-15 PPR results.
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