Fantasy
11/17/23
5 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: NFL Week 11 Underdog Fantasy Battle Royale Picks
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Game Analysis
San Francisco 49ers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Christian McCaffrey is rightfully the 1.01 selection on this slate. He has an unmatched touchdown upside, and Sportsbooks agree. When he’s there, you can take him and build out the game that way, but when he’s not, the other San Francisco 49ers pieces are very attractive options.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense is second-best in the league against opposing running backs, and teams are passing against it at the third-highest rate above expectation. It is still a polarizing pass-funnel defense. Not only does this make non-McCaffrey 49ers options more appealing, but they all offer unique leverage against other 49er-included teams.
Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are in a great spot for a big game that consolidates yards and touchdowns. The Buccaneers are nearly last against defending wide receivers. It feels bad on the surface to draft these polarizing players, but that is exactly what you need in a large, top-heavy tournament.
George Kittle has been electric lately and is another good spot. Tampa Bay is middle of the pack against tight ends, but that can be heavily skewed by quality of opposition. Kittle is not your average tight end.
Brock Purdy at QB10 on a flat slate with four pieces being always drafted against a pass-funnel defense is the ideal plot. This is my favorite quarterback value on the slate.
I’m wary of the Buccaneers with an extremely low team total, but Rachaad White and Mike Evans play well into negative game scripts to pair with 49ers pieces. White has had excellent usage lately and gets plenty of dump off passes. Evans will always benefit from a pass-heavy game environment, and the 49ers have been quite weak against wide receivers.
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Jared Goff has been excellent and getting there on yards, but this team does not like to throw the ball in the red zone. The matchup is great, however, and the ceiling for Goff is there with touchdown variance. The quarterbacks on the slate feel extremely flat, so I like the Goff selection who will likely be much less drafted than a typical QB6.
Jahmyr Gibbs is being overvalued. The gap between him and David Montgomery is essentially non-existent. In the last game, they rotated drives. While Gibbs finally got a goal-line carry, the duo openly admitted that Montgomery subbed himself out for Gibbs since the latter was tackled at the 1-yard line on the previous play. Sportsbooks favor Gibbs on yards and Montgomery on touchdown likelihood.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has had 100-plus yards, a touchdown, or both in every game this year. Nobody can seem to contain him, and I don’t expect that to stop now. For what it's worth, St. Brown is projected for both more yards and touchdowns than CeeDee Lamb.
Sam LaPorta has been consistent, but the volume spikes have not been there recently, with the running backs and St. Brown monopolizing volume and high-value touches. Other tight ends up top project similarly or better and go later in the draft. On the flip side of this game, Cole Kmet has previously consolidated volume and touchdowns and is mainly going undrafted.
Justin Fields has the potential to bring this offense back to life. He ran all over the Lions last year and this year the passing production is much improved. With the RB room a complete carousel, DJ Moore should be the focal point of this offense.
Pair game stacks here as the true ceiling of Detroit Lions players is if the game is somewhat competitive, thus the Chicago Bears pieces scoring too. There are many viable combinations to mix and match.
Uniqueness, Low ADPs
Quarterback
Sam Howell, QB9 – Averaging 47 pass attempts per game in his last three games, and the Giants have been a pass-funnel defense with mightily struggling cornerbacks.
Brock Purdy, QB10 – See above section.
Running Back
Devin Singletary, RB14 – This assumes Dameon Pierce is inactive. Last week Singletary had 81-percent of snaps, 91-percent of rush attempts, and ran 56-percent of the routes for elite usage. This is a great matchup. He also provides leverage on QB3, WR9, WR16 and TE5 — a textbook example of a perfect unique option.
Raheem Mostert, RB13 – Another leverage selection where the gap should not be this large between him and De’Von Achane. Sportsbooks have him as the second most likely running back to score, behind only McCaffrey.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins, WR16 – This assumes Pierce and Noah Brown are out. We are not convinced that Tank Dell is the alpha here. Sportsbooks project them similarly and Collins has not seen much of the new level to CJ Stroud due to injury.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz, TE5 – My model ranks Schultz as TE1 on the slate based on Sportsbooks odds. He ranks as most likely to find the endzone and tied with Dalton Kincaid for first in projected yards. I rarely see this big of a discrepancy at the top of rankings.
