Fantasy
11/20/23
7 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Analyzing Week 11 Chalk
Examining how you handled the chalk is an important aspect of analyzing previous play. That said, it is arguably more important to scrutinize how the field handled the chalk as the information gained can be added to our decision-making process.
Suppose the field is making considerable mistakes in how they process ownership percentages and how the chalk interacts with other pieces on a slate. In that case, I can confidently alter course and leverage those inefficiencies in our favor.
I will break down rosters each week, examining our processes along the way. This piece will examine the state of chalk from the previous week to see if meaningful takeaways develop
Analzying Week 11 Chalk
I'll start this process by going back to my analysis of each piece of chalk expected to be rostered by more than 20 percent of the field, a process that will allow us to re-cage our minds to the state of the previous slate.
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals, TE
Trey McBride leads the Arizona Cardinals in targets per route run and fantasy points per route run against zone coverage this season. This was important considering the Houston Texans play zone coverage at a top-five rate in 2023. McBride failed to return a 4x salary multiplier even while leading the team in targets in Week 11.
Devin Singletary, Houston Texans, RB
Devin Singletary had been a pure workhorse in the absence of Dameon Pierce, the latter of whom was out again in Week 11. He had played on 75 percent of the team’s offensive snaps or higher in the previous two games and was coming off a career-high rushing effort.
The return of LT Laremy Tunsil allowed offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik to introduce new run blocking concepts their last time out. Singletary returned a 4x salary multiplier for the second consecutive week.
Tank Dell, Houston Texans, WR
Tank Dell is the alpha in Houston, let’s just get that out of the way up front. He leads the team in most predictive metrics outside of fantasy points per route run against zone coverage, where Nico Collins hedges him slightly (0.46 to 0.43).
Even so, DraftKings refuses to adjust Dell’s price accordingly, leaving him as one of the top point-per-dollar plays on the Week 11 slate. Dell returned a 4x salary multiplier.
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders, RB
Entering Week 11, Brian Robinson Jr. stood as the only running back to return multiple overall RB1 finishes this season. He now has a game without Antonio Gibson to steal snaps and handle obvious passing situations.
Robinson returned a 3.5x salary multiplier on the backs of a robust receiving role.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars, TE
Evan Engram holds one of the most consistent workloads in the league this, seeing seven to 10 targets in all but one game heading into Week 11. That said, he’s held a sub-10 percent red zone target share and a modest aDOT, leaving his weekly ceiling in question. Engram failed to return a 4x salary multiplier in Week 11.
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals, WR
Rondale Moore went into Week 11 with a 3.3 aDOT and modest target market share, yet the field wanted to make him one of the highest-owned players on the slate. I was about to eat my words leading into the weekend when he scored a 48-yard touchdown on the team’s opening possession, only for him to be held without a catch for the remainder of the game.
This was one of the worst chalk plays of the entire season. Moore hit a 4x salary multiplier, which matters less than raw points on players priced below $5,000 on DraftKings.
Chalk Hit Rate
Two of the nine players expected to garner more than 20 percent ownership in Week 10 managed to return a 4x salary multiplier or greater, which jumped to four of six in Week 11.
That brings us to six of 15 chalk players that have returned a 4x salary multiplier since I started keeping track in Week 10, or 40 percent.
Most notably, both chalk running backs managed to go for four times their salary or more this week. That continues to confirm a preseason hypothesis that projections systems and sims were approaching Nash equilibrium coming into the 2023 season.
Nash equilibrium is a state of a game where no player can gain an appreciable edge over another by deviating from optimal theory — this is a long discussion down the depths of game theory that also includes a discussion on leverage, which I’ll do my best to summarize as concisely as possible.
Leverage is generated by deviating from optimal theory, which reduces the expected value of that play. Why deviate? Deviations, or exploits, include the human component of field observations, which can generate a boost in expected value to match or exceed that lost by the deviation itself.
This discussion governs how leverage is built into rosters and goes far beyond simply saying “player X succeeded, and player Y failed.” But if an aspect of a game is approaching or in equilibrium (Nash equilibrium, named after famed economist and game theorist John Nash), any deviation would be theoretically unable to generate a boost to expected value, leaving the deviation as suboptimal.
In other words, if projection systems are approaching Nash equilibrium at running back because it is the most projectable position, we can't generate leverage at the position moving forward. More succinctly, don’t be afraid to play running backs at ownership in DFS.
Roster Examination
There are some rosters where I get giddy to break down due to smart leverage generation, good decisions, and an overall well-built, cohesive roster. This is not one of those times. DraftKings user jarussell1025, take what I say here with a grain of salt because none of it matters more than your $1 million score.
You’ll notice this roster is a hodgepodge of assorted chalk pieces mixed in with two low-owned Buffalo Bills players, the top overall defense on the slate and Brock Purdy. From a roster construction standpoint, this is about as poor of a roster as I can remember shipping a major tournament. But again, none of that matters because jarussell1025 is a fantasy millionaire while I sit here with a maximum of $30,000.
It's evident this was a casual player that shipped the Milly, considering the early player in the flex and an afternoon player in the wide receiver spot – even though the two afternoon pieces combined for only $8,100 in salary (reducing the maneuverability of late swap).
Why not turn Tyreek Hill and Dalton Kincaid into Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle to pair with Purdy? Results aside, the path to a GPP-winning score from Purdy most directly flowed through the per-touch upside of Aiyuk and Kittle, each of whom has performed at elite levels against Cover 3 this season. That is important considering the Buccaneers run some of the highest rates of Cover 3 in the league.
That discussion aside, I like that he included Singletary and Dell without an Arizona bring-back, particularly after I called all Arizona pieces, outside of McBride, terrible chalk leading into the weekend.
I also said the return of Kyler Murray and the tendency not to keel over and die for the remainder of the season exhibited by the Cardinals' coaching staff was more beneficial to their opponents than to the Arizona skill position players.
I also liked the leverage gained by moving off Tony Pollard and onto the Dallas Cowboys defense, which netted positive fantasy production and introduced solid leverage on this roster.
Dell and Moore were severely underpriced relative to their respective range of outcomes. There are no qualms with those plays in a vacuum. Finally, Khalil Shakir was a “lightning in a bottle” play that paid off. He caught three balls for more than 100 yards and a score.
This weekly piece is taking on some changes as figure out the most actionable delivery for post-slate analysis. Be sure to check in for next week's installment.
