Analysis

6/15/23

16 min read

2023 Best Ball: Top 250 Underdog Rankings 2.0

By Ryan Reynolds & Josh Larky

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Our top 250 Underdog Fantasy best ball rankings have a new format. Players are ranked by site average draft position (ADP) and given a 1-5 scale. That ranking indicates Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds’ interest in that player at current ADP. 

You’ll find dozens of player write-ups to provide additional context behind the ratings/rankings process.

The average exposure to a player is about 8.3 percent, taking someone once every 12 drafts. Below, you can see how to translate our rating system to our ideal player exposures.

>> READ: DraftKings Best Ball Rankings 

Underdog Top 250 2.0

Players 1-25

• Bijan Robinson: We like Robinson, but he should be in that Taylor, Barkley, Chubb cluster.
• Davante Adams: He’ll turn 31 this December, and Jimmy Garoppolo has the lowest ceiling of any quarterback Adams has played with.
• Jonathan Taylor: We expect Taylor to be better than he was last season, but Anthony Richardson will siphon scoring zone opportunities. We slightly prefer Chubb and Barkley.
• Tony Pollard: If the Cowboys bring back Ezekiel Elliott, we could see Pollard’s ADP dip into the early third round. He’s still a high-upside option in that scenario.
• Jalen Hurts: The ADPs for the elite quarterbacks have been slowly receding, but it’s more difficult to stack Hurts with DeVonta Smith unless Hurts slides.

Players 26-50

• Josh Allen: Allen has been available around pick 30 in recent drafts.
• Josh Jacobs: He led the league in touches last year and plays for a Las Vegas Raiders team likely to struggle.
• Deebo Samuel: Samuel has unique spike-week potential, but San Francisco has a ton of target competition. Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell greatly reduce the need for Samuel to see significant volume in the run game.
• Keenan Allen: Allen is a better full points per reception (PPR) fantasy option than he is in half PPR.
• Travis Etienne: He’s been steadily sliding since the NFL Draft, making him a player to take when you can get him at a value.
• Jahmyr Gibbs: The Detroit Lions’ rookie runner could be a major asset in the passing game, making him more appealing in full PPR on DraftKings.
• Joe Burrow: He becomes a target when stacking with Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins.

Players 51-75

• Joe Mixon: He’s a better value on Underdog than on DraftKings. Early in the offseason, there was considerable doubt Mixon would be the Cincinnati Bengals’ lead runner. Those concerns have lessened in recent weeks.
• Chris Godwin: Volatile quarterback play is the only reason Godwin isn’t an auto-pick at his current ADP.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba is a much better buy on DraftKings, where he’s consistently available in the mid-70s.
• Miles Sanders: He’s never had a true workhorse role, and Carolina’s supporting cast is significantly worse than Philadelphia’s.
• Diontae Johnson: His ADP has steadily crept up. Consider him in the mid-50s on Underdog.
• George Pickens: He’s a talented player in a mediocre offense. Pickens is going ahead of several pass catchers we’d draft instead of him.

Players 76-100

• D’Andre Swift: If you’re looking for a home run swing running back option with an affordable cost, Swift should be at the top of your list. To frame that another way, if you’re looking for “this year’s Josh Jacobs,” Swift is in that conversation. Swift is being selected more than a full round earlier on DraftKings.
• Dalvin Cook: If Cook lands with the Miami Dolphins or another potent offense where he could be the lead runner, his ADP could rise two or three rounds. If he signs with a team like the Dallas Cowboys or Los Angeles Chargers where he’ll be a complementary runner, his ADP probably won’t dip further than it already has.
• Darren Waller: You can get Waller at a significantly better cost on Underdog than on DraftKings.
• David Montgomery: Jamaal Williams breached 1,000 yards rushing and led the league in rushing touchdowns last season. Montgomery has stand-alone value in that Williams-type role, and Montgomery could become a league winner if Gibbs misses time.
• Michael Thomas: He is a major risk versus reward decision. If Thomas returns to form, he’ll be an absolute smash at his current ADP. He’s played in 10 NFL games since 2020, so the downside is massive.
• Javonte Williams: Injury uncertainty makes Williams a player to avoid. That said, his Week 17 matchup against the Chargers’ non-existent run defense makes him a potential low advance rate option who could be in Best Ball Mania IV’s winning lineup.
• Anthony Richardson: You can get several more stable, high-quality quarterback options after Richardson. Richardson’s rushing upside makes him a slate-breaker, and he’ll face the Raiders in Week 17.
• Alvin Kamara: We won’t know if Kamara will miss time due to suspension for at least another month. But if you’re going to target Kamara, and we do in certain situations, he’s a better value on Underdog.

Players 101-125

• JuJu Smith-Schuster: His landing spot could have been worse, but recent news indicates he still has lingering knee issues. He should be avoided until there is more clarity regarding his status.
• Samaje Perine: If you intend to be light on Javonte Williams, you should be a little heavy on Perine.
• Allen Lazard: We saw Lazard’s ceiling in Green Bay last season, and it was underwhelming.
• Brian Robinson: If you’re bullish on Robinson, he’s better suited for half PPR, and he’s cheaper on Underdog.
• Daniel Jones: If you are looking for a quarterback with significant rushing upside, Jones is the last one available who’s an unquestioned starter.
• Damien Harris: Until Cook signs with a team, we’re taking our foot off the gas with Harris.
• Skyy Moore: We drafted Moore early in the process when he was available at a value. Now, he’s more of a stacking option.
• Dalton Kincaid: His ADP is starting to fall, and he’s beginning to slide a round or more in some drafts.

Players 126-150

• Michael Gallup: His ADP has steadily risen for weeks as he’ll have a significant role in Dallas’ offense. 
• Russell Wilson: We can’t call Wilson a safe option after last season, but he does end a quarterback tier.
• Nico Collins: He’s an upside play due to the lack of competition in the Houston Texans’ wide receiver room, but he’s inching toward being too expensive to target actively.
• Adam Thielen: He’s about half a round cheaper on Underdog, but Thielen is still hard to take at the current ADP.
• Jaylen Warren: He’s a premium handcuff with some stand-alone value. Warren’s ADP has been steadily rising for weeks.
• Greg Dulcich: We’d rather go after Dulcich’s upside than some of the other tight ends in this general range.
• Tyler Higbee: He should not be an outright fade. We’ve seen massive spike weeks out of Higbee in the past, but we hope he becomes a little bit cheaper in the coming weeks.

Players 151-175

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling: His spike week potential in Patrick Mahomes’ offense makes Valdes-Scantling a solid buy at current costs.
• Tyquan Thornton: He’s been a target for most of this process, but his ADP has risen enough that he should only be taken at a value or when it’s a roster construction decision.
• Kyler Murray: His injury situation makes him unsafe as there is some chance he doesn’t play this season. However, there are situations where taking Murray at a value can make your team more dangerous come playoff time.
• Ezekiel Elliott: The running back market has been interesting this offseason, as several veterans are still available. It would be surprising if Elliott didn’t end up on a team. There are a few landing spots, such as the Bengals or Chargers, where his ADP would spike.
• Tyjae Spears: If you’re betting against Derrick Henry's ability to hold in his age 29-30 season, you should consider targeting Spears more often.

Players 176-200

• Dawson Knox: He’ll be with the Bills for at least two more seasons and makes more than $10 million annually. Even though Buffalo drafted Kincaid in the first round, Knox will play, and he has a double-digit touchdown upside.
• Chuba Hubbard: If you’re betting against Sanders, it makes sense to be a little heavy on Hubbard late in drafts.
• Tyler Conklin: We’ve been pounding the table on Conklin for what feels like an eternity. His ADP is rising, as it should.
• Kenneth Gainwell: Swift and Rashaad Penny aren’t exactly beacons of availability, and Gainwell is the incumbent in the Eagles backfield. Even if Gainwell is third in the running back rotation, he has significant upside in Philadelphia’s Week 17 matchup with Arizona, especially if Murray isn’t playing.
• Chase Claypool: We shouldn’t be banking on consistency out of any Bears passing game option. That said, Claypool is a late-round wide receiver with a genuine multiple-touchdown upside.
• Sam Howell: Howell has some dual-threat capability and enjoys a solid supporting cast in Washington. However, please remember Howell is a fifth-round pick entering his second season. The floor in this situation is Jacoby Brissett starting on opening day or taking over early.

Players 201-225

• Darius Slayton: His speed gives him spike-game potential.
• Kareem Hunt: He’s one of the handfuls of big-name veteran running backs still available. Hunt may have the toughest time finding a new team.
• Jimmy Garoppolo: Garoppolo was a matchups-based streaming option in San Francisco with a championship-caliber supporting cast. That isn’t the case in Las Vegas.
• Hunter Henry: He’s been productive in the past and should have a significant role.
• Parris Campbell: Reynolds probably has more exposure to Campbell on both major best ball platforms than most. 

Players 226-250

• Pierre Strong: With James Robinson released, expect Strong’s ADP to climb.
• Zamir White: Jacobs led the league in touches last season, and White looks like his primary backup.
• Malik Davis: Unless Dallas brings back Elliott or signs Cook, Davis looks like Pollard’s primary backup.

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Ryan Reynolds

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Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

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Josh Larky

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Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.