Analysis

6/13/23

18 min read

2023 Best Ball: Top 250 DraftKings Rankings With Confidence Ratings

By Ryan Reynolds & Josh Larky

Share:

• Share to Facebook
• Share to X
• Share via LinkedIn
• Share via Email
• Copy permalink to clipboard https://www.the33rdteam.com/2023-best-ball-top-250-draftkings-rankings-with-confidence-ratings/ Copied to clipboard

Save to My Playbook

Our top 250 DraftKings best ball rankings have a new format. Players are ranked by site ADP (average draft position) and then given a 1-5 scale. That ranking indicates Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds’ interest in that player at current ADP. 

You’ll find dozens of player write-ups throughout to provide additional context behind the ratings/rankings process.

The average exposure to a player is about 8.3 percent, taking someone once every 12 drafts. Below, you can see how to translate our rating system to our ideal player exposures.

DraftKings Top 250

Players 1-25

• Ja’Marr Chase: Reynolds and The 33rd team analyst Liam Murphy sometimes take Chase first overall. We don’t do this in every draft because we don’t want to fade Justin Jefferson outright.
• Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey sometimes slides to pick seven in early drafts.
• Travis Kelce: We’re not considering Kelce until the sixth pick in current drafts, so we consistently avoid him at the current cost.
• Cooper Kupp: In full PPR (points per reception) formats, we’re taking Kupp ahead of Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
• Austin Ekeler: The Los Angeles Chargers have a new offensive coordinator. As we’ve pointed out, Ekeler’s passing game usage last season rose when Keenan Allen or Mike Williams were sidelined. Quentin Johnston gives Los Angeles a deeper wide receiver room.
• Saquon Barkley: With Barkley threatening to sit out the season if his contract isn’t extended, his ADP could start to drop.
• Davante Adams: We are generally bearish on the Las Vegas Raiders, partially because Adams will turn 31 in December and new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo already has injury concerns.
• Garrett Wilson: He’s ADP 13 on Underdog Fantasy, so you get an excellent value on a high-upside player here.
• Nick Chubb: The Cleveland Browns have a premium offensive line, and Chubb is a real threat to lead the league in rushing yards.
• Derrick Henry: Henry will turn 30 in January, and the Tennessee Titans have a below-average offensive line. That said, Henry is still a threat to lead the league in rushing, and he has a fantastic schedule run in the best ball playoffs.
• Tony Pollard: If Dallas re-signs Ezekiel Elliott, Pollard’s ADP could see a dip. Even in that scenario, Pollard has tremendous upside.
• Chris Olave: You get a strong value here as Olave is ADP 19 on Underdog Fantasy.

>> READ: Top 250 Underdog Rankings

Players 26-50

• Josh Jacobs: He logged a league-leading 393 touches last season, and we expect the Raiders to struggle this year. Those factors make Jacobs a tougher pick than a few of his adjacent options.
• Breece Hall: He could miss time early in the season, but Hall has tremendous week-to-week upside when he’s healthy. He gets a Week 17 smash spot against the Browns.
• Calvin Ridley: Few high-impact wide receivers have a wider range of outcomes than Ridley this season.
• Deebo Samuel: Samuel has unique spike week potential but has a ton of target competition. We expect his rushing usage to be scaled back in the regular season.
• Jahmyr Gibbs: There’s potential for a difference-making passing game role for Gibbs, which makes him more appealing in full PPR.
• DeAndre Hopkins: His landing spot will determine if Hopkins’ ADP falls or rises.
• Justin Fields: Fields has been semi-routinely falling into the fifth round.
• Joe Mixon: Mixon is a full round cheaper on Underdog Fantasy.
• Aaron Jones: Jones splits carries with A.J. Dillon, and the floor for the Green Bay Packers’ offense is scary low.
• Mike Williams: Williams is a better option in half PPR or standard formats.

Players 51-75

• Alexander Mattison: With Dalvin Cook released, Mattison’s best ball value is gone.
• Marquise Brown: Brown was a value when he was going in the 70s. Now that he’s a late fifth-round pick, there are many ways he underwhelms, given the Arizona Cardinals’ early-season quarterback situation.
• Miles Sanders: Sanders could have a nice role with the Carolina Panthers, but his supporting cast is significantly worse than it was in Philadelphia.
• Kadarius Toney: Toney has considerable upside in full PPR, but you’re paying the premium at his current ADP. Availability has been a significant issue for Toney, and sub-50 percent route participation is possible, even when he’s healthy.
• Michael Pittman Jr.: Anthony Richardson’s season-long passing lines are well below 3,000 yards. That illustrates the downside for any Indianapolis Colts pass catcher this season.
• Dalvin Cook: If Cook lands in Miami or elsewhere as the lead runner, his ADP will jump two rounds. It’s tough to envision a landing spot where his ADP significantly dips.
• Diontae Johnson: In full PPR, Johnson has a strong floor with a realistic path to exceeding expectations at his current ADP.
• James Conner: There’s a new coach in Arizona, meaning Conner’s role won’t be the same as last year. Even if it is, the Cardinals will be among the worst offenses in the league until Kyler Murray returns.

Players 76-100

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba is nearly a round and a half more expensive on Underdog Fantasy. Smith-Njigba is best suited for full PPR, making him a great value on DraftKings. 
• George Pickens: We’re not overly high on Pickens. He’s better suited for half PPR or standard scoring.
• Rachaad White: You could get significant passing game volume out of White, making him more appealing in full PPR. However, Tampa Bay could be among the worst-scoring offenses in the league, capping White’s touchdown upside.
• Deshaun Watson: If Watson returns to form, he’s the cheapest elite quarterback at current ADP. The downside is that how Watson played at the end of last season might be his new reality.
• Alvin Kamara: You can get Kamara roughly a round and a half cheaper on Underdog Fantasy.
• Dak Prescott: Tua Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins are both slightly cheaper. Given their supporting casts, they have a similar, if not greater, upside than Prescott.
• David Montgomery: Ideally, Montgomery takes Jamaal Williams’ role from last season, where the latter breached 1,000 yards rushing and led the league in rushing touchdowns. If Gibbs misses time, Montgomery’s ceiling is enormous.
• Javonte Williams: Injury uncertainty makes Williams a risky bet. However, the Broncos’ Week 17 matchup against the run-sieve Chargers defense comes with some week-winning upside. That’s why he’s not an outright fade for Reynolds.
• Odell Beckham Jr.: If you’re high on Beckham, you can get him much cheaper on Underdog Fantasy. 
• Brian Robinson Jr.: Robinson is better suited for half PPR, yet he’s much more expensive here than on Underdog Fantasy.
• Anthony Richardson: Don’t expect consistency if you take Richardson, but his rushing abilities give him slate-breaking upside. Richardson has a great Week 17 matchup against the Raiders.

Players 101-125

• Elijah Moore: There are a lot of positive reports about Moore in Cleveland, where phrases like “manufactured touches” are being thrown around. Moore gets a Week 17 revenge game against the New York Jets.
• Samaje Perine: If you’re betting against Williams, it makes sense to be a little heavy on Perine.
• Daniel Jones: Jones has a better supporting cast this year and is the last dual-threat quarterback available.
• Allen Lazard: In 15 games last season, Lazard had 60 receptions for 788 yards receiving and six touchdowns. That’s his ceiling, and he’ll have more target competition this year.
• Antonio Gibson: His pass-catching role makes him a better buy in full PPR formats.
• Jameson Williams: You can get Williams at a value versus his Underdog Fantasy ADP. He’ll miss six games due to suspension, but he has tremendous upside in the second half of the season.
• Zach Charbonnet: He goes a round earlier on Underdog Fantasy, even though his pass-catching ability makes him more valuable in full PPR. Charbonnet has some stand-alone value that could instantly become a league winner if Kenneth Walker misses time.
• Russell Wilson: He’s not safe after last year, but Wilson finished strong and got a major coaching upgrade with Sean Payton. Wilson ends a tier at quarterback.

Players 126-150

• Damien Harris: In a best-case scenario, Harris flirts with 1,000 yards rushing and double-digit touchdowns. If Buffalo signs Cook, that dream is dead.
• Elijah Mitchell: He’s a premium handcuff in an elite offense with some standalone value.
• Adam Thielen: From an ADP standpoint, Thielen may be the worst draft selection you can make at current cost.
• Greg Dulcich: We prefer Dulcich instead of Cole Kmet or Tyler Higbee.
• Michael Gallup: If Gallup returns to form this season, he marks a tier break as a pass catcher with a substantial role in a borderline elite offense.
• Kendre Miller: He’s a major value versus his Underdog Fantasy ADP, making him a strong high-upside shot as your fourth or fifth running back.
• Nico Collins: He could lead the Houston Texans in yards receiving yards and touchdowns.

Players 151-175

• Gerald Everett: When you draft Justin Herbert, Everett is an athletic tight end who doubles as an easy stack.
• Tank Bigsby: He’s a buzzy rookie who reminds Reynolds of Mattison from a talent perspective. 
• Jalin Hyatt: Don’t expect Hyatt to see fantasy-relevant usage early, but his role could grow as the season progresses.
• Roschon Johnson: An interesting upside option that fits nicely as a fourth or fifth running back.

Players 176-200

• Tyquan Thornton: He’s a second-year, second-round speedster with a path to a significant role.
• Tyjae Spears: If you’re betting against Henry due to age, you should consider betting on Spears.
• Chuba Hubbard: Hubbard has some stand-alone value. He’d greatly benefit if Sanders misses time.
• Kenneth Gainwell: The Eagles’ backfield could be messy this season. Don’t be surprised if Gainwell starts the season with a bigger role than expected.
• Chase Claypool: One of the latest available wide receivers with genuine weekly two-touchdown upside.
• Tyler Conklin: He’s been rock solid in two different offenses during the past two seasons. Now he gets Aaron Rodgers at quarterback.
• Trey Lance: In a best-case scenario, Lance is a dual-threat quarterback who could start games for a championship-caliber 49ers offense. In a worst-case scenario, Lance doesn’t take a snap all year. His late-round ADP makes him an interesting risk versus reward decision.
• Ty Chandler: Cook’s release makes Chandler an interesting late-round buy. His ADP has risen.

Players 201-225

• James Robinson: He was released by the Patriots, so he should be off your board.
• Robert Woods: It doesn’t feel good, but Woods could be a solid PPR option in a wide-open Texans wide receiver room.
• Darius Slayton: His role could be volatile this season, but Slayton is a back-of-the-draft speedster with spike-week potential.
• Ryan Tannehill: He may not start the whole season, but that’s not a foregone conclusion, and Tannehill has his moments.
• Trey McBride: He’s a second-year, second-rounder who won the Mackey award (best collegiate tight end) and who you can get for free at the end of drafts.

Players 226-250

• Hunter Henry: He’s perhaps the last tight end available with any real shot at being a TE1.
• Jelani Woods: Woods is a nice late-round addition for tight end heavy builds
• Israel Abanikanda: If Hall misses multiple games, Abanikanda could lead the Jets in carries early in the season.
• Malik Davis: If the Cowboys don’t re-sign Elliott or bring in another veteran, Davis could have some stand-alone value while being Pollard’s direct handcuff.
• Pierre Strong Jr.: Robinson’s release means Strong’s ADP will climb similarly to Chandler’s. 

Additional Late-Round Options

• Zamir White: Jacobs led the league in touches last year, and White looks like his primary backup.
• Isaiah Spiller: We don’t know if Josh Kelley or Spiller is Ekeler’s primary backup.
• Will Levis: If Levis takes starts this season, he will bring some dual-threat ability.
• Cedric Tillman: He is a late-round stacking option for Week 17’s Jets versus Browns matchup.
• Eric Gray: If Barkley misses time this season, Gray could lead the Giants’ runners in opportunities.
• Puka Nacua: He is a buzzy rookie wide receiver with a realistic path to playing time for the Rams.
• Luke Schoonmaker: The Cowboys’ tight end room is a bit of a mess with three similar players, but they didn’t spend a second-round pick on Schoonmaker for no reason.
• Logan Thomas: He’s athletic, and he’s still Washington’s best pass-catching option at tight end. Thomas is entirely free in drafts right now.

Follow The 33rd Team Podcast Network on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

---

Ryan Reynolds

• Share to Facebook
• Share to X
• Share via LinkedIn
• Share via Instagram

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

---

Josh Larky

• Share to Facebook
• Share to X
• Share via LinkedIn
• Share via Instagram

Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.