Betting
10/7/22
6 min read
Week 5 Main Slate Player Props
Thursday night games continue to be good for us as we went 3-2, and correctly predicted an Alec Pierce breakout game. That brings us to 25-22-2 for the season and continues our positive trend. As always, player props are listed in order of how much I like them, with my favorite line being posted last.
Damien Harris OVER 60.5 Rush Yards
At 5.61 yards per rush, the Lions defense is giving up the most yards per rush in the NFL through 4 weeks. This Lions defense also just gave up 151 rushing yards to Rashaad Penny.
While Harris is not getting almost all the running back touches for his team like Penny is, Harris continues to still have the slight lead in the Patriots backfield over Rhamondre Stevenson with 55% of the running back carries so far this season. Because of the backfield split, and that this is already a very aggressive line, I would not play it if it moved much higher.
Dallas Defense OVER 3.0 Sacks
The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has looked horrible at times this season. Against two of the best pass rushes in the NFL, the Rams gave up 7 sacks a piece to the 49ers and the Bills.
Micah Parsons already has 4 sacks this season, and the Commanders had to consistently double-team him to keep him away from Wentz in Week 4. I don’t think the Rams will be as successful at keeping Parsons away from Stafford, and at worst this play will tie. I would not play it if this line moves to 3.5, however.
Josh Allen UNDER 40.5 Rush Yards
During the last 3 seasons, Josh Allen averaged 5.1 rush attempts when the Bills have won by 15 points or more. In games where the Bills won by less than 14 points, or lost, Josh Allen averaged 7.9 rush attempts. Why is this significant? The Bills are 14 1/2 point favorites this weekend against the Steelers.
The only time Allen has gone under 40.5 rush yards this season was in a blowout Week 2 game versus the Titans. He only had 1 rush attempt for 10 yards in that game. In Kenny Pickett’s first professional start, he gets arguably the best defense in the NFL. I do not expect this game to be close and will continue to play this prop until it hits 34.5.
Derek Carr OVER Whatever His Second Half Passing Prop Is
I am getting creative here but stay with me because there is a trend I am looking forward to exploiting here. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense have looked great this year. In their 3 wins this season, opposing offenses have had to play catch up and this has led to the Chiefs giving up 152.5 pass yards in the second half.
That number increases to 163.3 passing yards if you look only at the games they have won. Also, Derek Carr is averaging 197 passing yards in the second half when trailing at halftime. You have to move quickly with 2nd half props, they’re only posted once the game starts and change based on how the game is flowing, but I would expect Carr’s line to be 150.5 at halftime. I would confidently play it up to 160.5 pass yards.
Cooper Kupp OVER 8.5 Receptions.
When Stafford has been under pressure, he has looked to Cooper Kupp. On the 36 passes Stafford has gotten off when pressured this season, Cooper Kupp has been targeted on 16 of them.
Assuming Stafford will see a lot of pressure against a very good Dallas defense, I believe he will have to use Kupp as his outlet over and over again. It is an insanely high number to bet an over on, but I would even bet this if it goes up to 9 receptions.
Dalvin Cook OVER 17.5 Rush Attempts
Dalvin Cook has gone over this number two out of four games so far this season, but he has a good excuse for each time he went under. The first game he did not go over this prop was against the Eagles, where the Vikings had to abandon the run early due to being down 17 points at half.
In the other game he went under, Cook got injured at the end of the 3rd quarter and still had 17 rush attempts. Assuming he is healthy the entire game, Cook should see plenty of opportunities in a game that Minnesota is favored by 7.5. I would play this up to 19 rush attempts.
Christian Kirk OVER 63.5 Receiving Yards
Do I have to explain this again? Really? Okay, fine. Kirk continues to be disrespected. He is averaging 9 targets and nearly 80 air yards a game. Jacksonville gets a Houston defense that is mediocre at best and has their pass defense stats boosted by playing Justin Fields in Week 3. I would play this line well into the mid 70s.
Romeo Doubs OVER 43.5 Receiving Yards
I believe it is finally Romeo Doubs breakout week. Doubs has seen a target on over 20% of his routes run every week this season. That is more impressive when you notice that his number of routes run has increased steadily since Week 2, when he had 25, to 68 routes last week.
Week 4 should have really been his breakout, except he dropped a 40-yard touchdown pass. The Giants pass defense is statistically above average, but I believe that is due to them having played Baker Mayfield, Cooper Rush, and Justin Fields. It is worth noting that Justin Fields had his best game of the season statistically against the Giants last week. I would confidently continue to play this line well into the mid 50s.
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Additional Week 5 Player Props I Like:
Patrick Mahomes OVER 272.5 Pass Yards
Derrick Henry OVER 85.5 Rush Yards
DeVonta Smith OVER 4.0 Receptions
WATCH MORE: Michael Vick Predicts Big Game From Aaron Rodgers vs Giants
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