Analysis
9/9/23
4 min read
Week 1 Top Underdog Higher, Lower Entries To Consider
Each week, we will evaluate the higher, lower picks available on Underdog Fantasy and craft picks that leverage game environments and correlation to maximize value.
Week 1 Higher/Lower Entries
Kirk Cousins LOWER 17.65 fantasy points, Justin Jefferson LOWER 0.5 receiving touchdowns, Greg Joseph LOWER 2.5 XP made with Joe Burrow LOWER 20.25 fantasy points and Ja’Marr Chase LOWER 0.5 receiving touchdowns
Kirk Cousins LOWER 17.65 fantasy points, Justin Jefferson LOWER 0.5 receiving touchdowns, Greg Joseph LOWER 2.5 XP made with Tua Tagovailoa LOWE 17.65 fantasy points and Tyreek Hill LOWER 0.5 receiving touchdowns
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The Minnesota Vikings parlay block is heavily correlated. In scenarios where Justin Jefferson does not catch a receiving touchdown, Kirk Cousins' fantasy score will likely be lower and Greg Joseph is less likely to make three or more extra points.
When Ja’Marr Chase does not score a receiving touchdown, Joe Burrow is likely to go lower than his fantasy score. When Tyreek Hill does not score a receiving touchdown, Tua Tagovailoa is likely to go lower than his fantasy score.
I would play these contests as long as Cousins’ fantasy score is at least 17.0, Burrow’s fantasy score is at least 19.5, Tagovailoa’s fantasy score is at least 17.0, their wide receivers still have a receiving touchdown contest available and Joseph has a contest of exactly 2.5 XP made.
The Cincinnati Bengals’ pair of contests and the Miami Dolphins’ pair of contests can also be used in other entries as building blocks.
>>READ: Week 1 Underdog Fantasy Battle Royale Picks
Khalil Herbert HIGHER 49.5 rushing yards, Darnell Mooney LOWER 7.35 fantasy points, Aaron Jones LOWER 0.5 rushing + receiving touchdowns
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This correlated bet attacks a lower-scoring game where the Chicago Bears likely win. In this game, the Bears establish the run, giving Khalil Herbert enough carries in a conducive game environment against a weak rushing defense. Associate Director of Fantasy and Betting Ryan Reynolds also recommended the Herbert play in our free discord.
Darnell Mooney is listed at 2.5 receptions and 29.5 yards. Even giving Mooney higher on both of those, with three receptions for 35 yards, it would put Mooney at 5.00 fantasy points. Mooney should have somewhere from 15 to 25 percent true odds to score a touchdown. A generous 25 percent touchdown odds would bring Mooney up to 6.50 fantasy points. His contest is mispriced significantly.
The lower scoring game also means an Aaron Jones touchdown is less likely. Sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel also have Jones as an overwhelming favorite to not score a touchdown, so Underdog offering the contest at neutral odds makes the lower advantageous, even in uncorrelated environments.
Matthew Stafford HIGHER 33.5 passing attempts, Geno Smith HIGHER 3.5 rushing attempts, Cam Akers LOWER 82.5 rushing + receiving yards
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Matthew Stafford HIGHER 33.5 passing attempts, Geno Smith HIGHER 3.5 rushing attempts, Cam Akers LOWER 15.5 rushing attempts (+500,
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Both of these entries center on the thesis that the Seattle Seahawks likely defeat the Los Angeles Rams. In the Seahawks’ nine wins last year, Geno Smith had at least four rush attempts eight times.
While it is unreasonable to suspect an 88.9 percent hit rate to roll over, it logically makes sense that Smith would rush more during wins, as kneel downs count as rush attempts. If the Seahawks are leading, the Rams will likely have to alter their tendencies and pass more often and lower their rushing volume.
Cam Akers' rushing attempts contest is also available at 14.5 elsewhere, so 15.5 provides a favorable number. Early reports indicate that Kyren Williams will play on passing downs, so Akers rushing plus receiving yards contest also makes sense in this game environment.
Rachaad White HIGHER 2.5 receptions, Jalen Hurts HIGHER 22.75 fantasy points, A.J. Brown HIGHER 11.35 fantasy points
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Rachaad White is a significant favorite to go higher than 2.5 receptions on sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel. If his contest moved to 3.0, I would not play it.
The New England Patriots’ new offense should play with a fast enough pace to give the Philadelphia Eagles ample offensive opportunities, even late into the game. The Patriots’ weak cornerback group and likely high rates of single-high coverage should provide A.J. Brown with a realistic upside path, especially if Brown is matched up with rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
Before his shoulder injury last year, Jalen Hurts’ went over 22.75 fantasy points in 78.6 percent of games.
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