Opening Spread: Patriots +3.5
Opening Game Total: 40
Opening Team Totals: Patriots (18.25) Bengals (21.75)
Weather: Outdoors, cold temperatures
The Line Report
- This line opened as Patriots +3.5.
- This line remains at Patriots +3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Patriots +3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Patriots +3.
- This total opened at 40-points.
- This total has moved to 39.5-points.
Bengals: Out: Edge Sam Hubbard; Questionable: TE Hayden Hurst, CB Cam Taylor-Britt
The Patriots Offense vs. Bengals Defense
I have the Patriots’ offensive line ranked towards the front of league average. I have the Bengals’ defensive front as a below average group. New England has a moderate advantage in the trenches from a macro sense. That said, the Bengals have consistently been an excellent run defense when they are at full strength. Cincinnati has a mild edge in that phase.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Patriots are 7-6-1 against the spread this season.
- The Patriots are 6-8 on overs this season.
- Mac Jones is 14-13-1 against the spread in his career.
- Mac Jones is 13-15 on overs in his career.
- Bill Belichick is 209-146-12 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Bill Belichick is 186-176-5 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- The Patriots are scoring 21.4 points per game, which is 17th in the league.
- New England is 23rd in the league in yards passing per game and 19th in yards rushing.
- The Patriots are passing on 60% of their plays and running on 40% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Rhamondre Stevenson is 13th in the league in yards rushing with 914. Stevenson is sixth among running backs in yards receiving.
- Jakobi Meyers has a 21.8% target share and a 33.2% air yards share.
- Nelson Agholor has a 13.2% target share and a 19.6% air yards share.
- Kendrick Bourne and rookie Tyquan Thornton will see role expansion with DeVante Parker sidelined.
- Hunter Henry has an 11.1% target share and a 25.15 air yards share.
- The Bengals have allowed 20.6 points per game, which is 10th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bengals have allowed the 25th-most yards rushing per game and the 17th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Cincinnati has given up the 20th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bengals have allowed the 11th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Bengals Offense vs. Patriots Defense
I have the Bengals’ offensive line ranked as a league average group. I have the Patriots’ defensive front ranked as a fringe top-10 unit. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw from a macro sense, with Patriots edge Matthew Judon being an individual matchup problem on the outside.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bengals are 11-3 against the spread this season.
- The Bengals are 5-8-1 on overs this season.
- Joe Burrow is 26-14 against the spread in his career.
- Joe Burrow is 19-19-2 on overs in his career.
- Zac Taylor is 36-27 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Zac Taylor is 28-33-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Bengals are scoring 26.4 points per game, which is fifth in the league.
- Cincinnati is fourth in the league in yards passing per game and 26th in yards rushing.
- The Bengals are passing on 65% of their plays and running on 35% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Joe Mixon is 22nd in the league in yards rushing with 722. Mixon is 10th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Ja’Marr Chase has a 29.9% target share and a 39.8% air yards share. Chase has 28 targets over his last two games.
- Tee Higgins has an 18.5% target share with a 27.9% air yards share. Higgins has breached 90 yards receiving in five of his 12 games this season.
- Tyler Boyd has a 13.9% target share with an 18.8% air yards share. Boyd has been held below 50 yards receiving in six of his last seven games.
- Hayden Hurst has a 14.4% target share with a 10.6% air yards share. Hurst has missed each of the last two games and remains on the injury report.
- The Patriots have allowed 19.2 points per game, which is seventh in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Patriots have allowed the 26th-most yards rushing per game and the 14th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New England has given up the 21st-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Patriots have allowed the 20th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Patriots have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Patriots vs. Bengals
Bill Belichick is famous for making offenses play “left-handed.” Most of the time that involves taking away a premium skill position player, but I’m not sure that will be the case in this matchup. I think Belichick treats Joe Burrow similarly to how he treated Tom Brady from a macro sense, making Burrow beat them on the perimeter, primarily with out-breaking routes. Regardless of what Belichick deploys to try and limit Burrow, if you’re betting on the Patriots, you are always building that bet on Belichick’s strategic prowess. We can rely on New England’s defense to have a smart gameplan, but things have been abnormally dicey for the Patriots’ offense on the strategic front. Mac Jones showed throughout his rookie campaign last season that he can be a good NFL quarterback, but the Patriots’ offense has been inconsistent all season. Your biggest concern as a Patriots bettor is that Burrow’s Bengals are coming to town against a Patriots’ offense that might not push them.
A bet on the Bengals begins as a bet on Burrow’s offense. Cincinnati is on a six-game winning streak while taking down eight of their last nine. Burrow’s offense breached 30 points in five of those eight victories. If you’re betting on the Bengals, you’re betting on Cincinnati’s offense at least meeting expectations this week against Belichick’s Patriot defense. Bengals bets are now built around Burrow, but Cincinnati’s defense has been rock-solid over the past two seasons. Cincinnati’s defense is giving up the 10th-fewest points per game this season, and they get struggling Jones this week. The Bengals can win and cover in this contest behind strong play in both phases. Your primary concern as a Bengals bettor is that Belichick’s defense keeps Burrow’s offense near, if not below, their team total of 21 points, while Jones plays well enough to keep this game within three points for most of the contest.
Awards Market Ramifications: Joe Burrow is an MVP contender.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I will be Bengals-heavy in winner pools, but I will have some exposure to New England in that format. I expect to be a little below consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I don’t have a ton of confidence in Patriots +3.5, so I’m going to stay away from this contest. In pools where you pick every game, I will take Bengals -3, but Patriots +3.5 in those situations.
Survivor Pool: I would avoid this contest in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 46-24
Props 2022: 51-31