Fantasy
6/12/23
16 min read
Fantasy Football 2023 Guide To WR, TE Matchups: NFL Secondary Rankings
In a collaborative effort throughout June, Mark Garcia and Jordan Vanek are joining forces to curate a comprehensive set of rankings for the upcoming year's secondaries. This is part one of a three-part series that will also include strength of schedule based on these rankings and actionable strategy you can use in your own leagues this coming season.
We intend to provide valuable insights into best ball strategies, early-season targeting and fantasy football preparations. This guide provides the breakdown of each tier's significance and accompanying podcast links to the audio analysis, effectively justifying their placements within the tiers.
NFL Secondary Tier Rankings
Tier 1: Elite
The four secondaries below have elite players at all levels and a scheme that will play to their strengths. You beat these secondaries by having at least two of the following at an elite level; play caller, quarterback or skill positions.
>> LISTEN: Cover 5 Podcast Talking Tiers 1, 2 on Apple, Spotify
Miami Dolphins
This offseason, the Miami Dolphins bolstered their secondary, securing Vic Fangio, one of the most exceptional defensive play callers in the NFL. Alongside this formidable addition, they also acquired CB Jalen Ramsey. With Fangio's scheme, they're bound to be the top secondary in the NFL.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles lost some big names through free agency this offseason, including Javon Hargrave, T.J. Edwards, Marcus Epps and Kyzir White. They saw defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon depart for the head coaching position in Arizona.
That said, the Eagles had a draft for the ages on defense and brought in up-and-coming defensive coordinator Sean Desai. Going from Gannon to Desai is a net-neutral move for a team that challenged the single-season sack record a year ago.
Dallas Cowboys
The 2022 Dallas Cowboys defense emerged as the best in the NFL. Adding cornerback Stephon Gilmore and first-round pick Mazi Smith were significant additions. Before injuries, they held opponents to less than 200 yards passing and averaged more than four sacks per game.
In 2023, we expect the same style of dominance from Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs.
New York Jets
Robert Saleh’s unique and intricate defensive scheme wreaks absolute havoc when he has the right complement of talent, which he has in spades this year. The wide-9 front, paired with a suffocating, disguised secondary, generates pressure in the backfield and confuses quarterbacks enough to disrupt drives and create turnovers.
Tier 2: One Piece Away
This tier is comprised of highly skilled secondaries. However, a slight deficiency, such as a defensive scheme change, the absence of a dominant pass rusher or the lack of an elite cornerback, prevents them from ascending to the top tier.
While they excel against average passing offenses, they struggle against elite teams capable of capitalizing on their imperfections to score points.
San Francisco 49ers
Under the guidance of Steve Wilks, the San Francisco 49ers' defense is expected to experience some growing pains. The 49ers lack a true alpha at the cornerback position — a vital component that separates them from the elite tier.
Nevertheless, the team can rely on Nick Bosa, one of the league's premier defensive ends, and Fred Warner, widely regarded as the best cover linebacker in football.
New England Patriots
The defensive scheme under coach Bill Belichick has remained consistent throughout his tenure — take away deep passing, force opponents to march the field and crackdown in the red zone.
The New England Patriots are coming off consecutive seasons ranked in the top 10 in yards allowed per game and the top 11 in points allowed per game. They got a steal in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft in CB Christian Gonzalez.
New England’s slow pace on offense places reduced strain on an opportunistic defense known to play heightened snap counts.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks did not give up a single touchdown to players from a wide alignment, and they drafted a top cornerback in Devon Witherspoon. The one thing this team needs is an elite-level pass rusher.
The Seahawks brought back Bobby Wagner and will get Jamal Adams back from injury, making them primed to be an elite-level defense.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers enter their offseason program every season with an excellent on-paper defense, only to see it decimated by injuries. This year might be no different, with ILB Eric Kendricks also added to the mix.
Coach Brandon Staley is slated to take over defensive play-calling duties, which should be considered a plus. Can this team stay healthy and perform to its preseason expectations, or will the Chargers fall victim to a relatively weak depth again?
Cincinnati Bengals
Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo is one of the top two or three defensive minds in the game. His ever-changing defensive alignments and schemes are tailored to maximize his personnel every week, making overall performance less reliant on talent level compared to other teams.
He will need to scheme up adjustments for the departures of former starting safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates, who left in free agency this summer.
Buffalo Bills
The departure of Leslie Frazier puts Sean McDermott in a challenging position, assuming the roles of head coach and defensive coordinator. Still, McDermott has one of the most talented defenses in the league.
The team faces uncertainties surrounding replacing LB Tremaine Edmunds and Von Miller’s ACL recovery, creating significant question marks for the defense.
Tier 3: Above Average But Lots Of Moving Pieces
This tier consists of two types of teams. The first type is teams that have undergone makeovers in their schemes, acquiring young talent and making strategic free agency signings.
The second type is teams that were once exceptional but experienced setbacks due to the loss of crucial components, preventing them from maintaining their status.
>> LISTEN: Cover 5 Podcast Talking Tier 3 on Apple, Spotify
Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons were among the most aggressive teams pursuing free agents this offseason, signing Bates, DT David Onyemata, OLB Kaden Elliss, DE Calais Campbell, CB Mike Hughes and OLB Bud Dupree. All of them are projected starters entering the season.
That’s a lot of veteran savvy added to the mix for coach Arthur Smith and defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. Expect this defense to look vastly different in 2023.
Baltimore Ravens
Gone are the days of Ray Lewis and one of the most formidable secondaries known to football. That said, this unit still has talent and athleticism. Expect NT Michael Pierce, LBs Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith, and the secondary to be the glue that holds this defense together.
We could see additional strain on the defensive side of the ball. The Ravens added offensive coordinator Todd Monken, rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers and veteran wide receiver Odell Beckham. Those additions point to a more aerially-focused, aggressive offense.
Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers boast a promising young defensive core consisting of Brian Burns, Derrick Brown and Jaycee Horn. Under the guidance of Ejiro Evero, who led the Denver Broncos' highly ranked defense last season, the team is embarking on a transition to a new scheme.
The Panthers' primary challenge is identifying a suitable counterpart for Horn at the second cornerback position and a complementary edge rusher to partner with Burns.
New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints faced significant losses in free agency, with four defensive linemen who played over 40 percent of snaps departing from the team. While they managed to address the interior player departures, their depth on the defensive edge remains a concern.
Despite having standout players like Cam Jordan, Demario Davis and Marshon Lattimore, the Saints' defense falls short of being considered a top unit in the NFL. Their statistical success can be partly attributed to the caliber of offenses within their division and their frequent use of two-high coverage schemes.
Denver Broncos
Vance Joseph takes charge of a defense that has consistently ranked within the top 15 in points allowed in four out of the past five seasons. However, this team has been immersed in Fangio's scheme during that time, and the transition to Joseph's approach may present a learning curve.
Furthermore, the Denver Broncos face the challenge of rehabilitating several edge defenders recovering from knee injuries. Still, acquiring Frank Clark should provide valuable support in fortifying that area.
New York Giants
The enigma that is Wink Martindale should be viewed as both a blessing and a curse for the New York Giants. His aggressive and in-your-face ways are equally as likely to disrupt drives as they are to bleed explosive plays.
Increased (comical?) blitz rates and elevated rates of man coverages will do that to you. The front seven looks good on paper, but the expectation for Adoree’ Jackson, rookie Deonte Banks and Darnay Holmes to hold up in man coverage is not overly appealing.
Tier 4: Bend But Don’t Break
This tier consists of teams likely to surrender yardage in most games due to various factors. These factors include a deficiency in their defensive scheme, a strategic focus on preventing opponents from running the ball effectively or extended time on the field due to offensive inefficiencies.
>> LISTEN: Cover 5 Podcast Talking Tier 4, 5 on Apple, Spotify
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been the epitome of consistency on defense during coach Mike Tomlin’s tenure, taking a Cover-2 shell with Tampa-2 methodologies to new heights. T.J. Watt is the engine of this unit, with the defense holding drastic splits in efficiency allowed with him on vs. off the field.
They will have to contend with an entirely new set of starting corners through the additions of Patrick Peterson, rookie Joey Porter Jr. and Chandon Sullivan. Can the Steel Curtain hold up with so many moving pieces?
Cleveland Browns
New Cleveland Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz brings a remarkable 14-season track record of successfully stopping the run, evidenced by his impressive 10 top-15 run defenses.
However, it's essential to acknowledge that when a defense prioritizes one aspect, it often struggles to defend the other. Schwartz’s defenses are no different, as they struggle against the pass. This Browns’ defense has struggled to defend the run, so we believe they’ll overcompensate this season, putting their defensive backs on an island. That will lead to chunk plays, but they’ll be rewarded with stops in the red zone.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The backbone of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' defense lies within their formidable front seven and physical cornerbacks. However, their ability to defend the slot is an area of concern.
We anticipate opposing teams successfully moving the ball through that field region, leading to methodical drives. The defense will need to excel in the red zone, an aspect where they struggled last season, allowing 30 touchdowns on 48 attempts.
The offense likely won’t provide much assistance without Tom Brady, forcing the defense to play a lot of reps.
Kansas City Chiefs
Like Martindale in New York, the presence of Steve Spagnuolo should be viewed as a blessing and a curse. Spagnuolo is an elite-level defensive mind but a relatively poor situational play-caller, which routinely places his unit on their heels at the most inopportune times.
The departures of Juan Thornhill, Khalen Saunders and Clark provide a level of uncertainty through changing personnel. Still, Spagnuolo should have this unit performing near the middle of the league for the duration of the season.
Tier 5: Potential With Major Question Marks
This group comprises teams significantly invested in their defenses through high draft picks or substantial financial commitments. However, they don’t have a proven track record of success.
It wouldn't be surprising to witness one of these defenses ascend into higher tiers if they can maintain good health and resolve a few lingering uncertainties.
Washington Commanders
The Washington Commanders' defensive line has immense talent and the potential to be one of the best in football when healthy. However, the uncertainty surrounding Chase Young's health remains a critical factor.
Additionally, the defense will rely on 160-pound CB Emmanuel Forbes, who they drafted in the first round this year. Will he hold up against bigger receivers?
Furthermore, the absence of a slot corner, a vital position in today's NFL, is noticeable. While the defensive line can elevate the unit's performance, any issues with health or a lack of pass rush productivity could impact their secondary’s ability to defend.
Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers' defense is missing one piece to be considered one of the league’s better defenses on paper. That piece is an above-average corner to play opposite Jaire Alexander. Yet, the Packers selected project OLB Lukas Van Ness in the first round of this year’s draft with multiple impact corners still on the board.
Yes, linebackers are integral to the success of Barry’s system, but the team sports a linebacking corps consisting of Preston Smith, Quay Walker, Rashan Gary and De’Vondre Campbell. Current needs were not met through free agency or the draft, meaning they’ll likely continue to teeter on the cusp of relevancy. That’s likely to remain the case as long as Barry has his claws sunken into this team.
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions are fresh off a season where they allowed the most yards per game at 392.4. But they have significant turnover in the secondary, with all three projected starting corners new to the franchise – Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Cameron Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley.
The Lions likely will start slowly as they integrate new faces on the defensive side of the ball. The linebacking corps and secondary appear solid on paper, but the main weakness for Detroit remains the front four in a gap-and-a-half scheme.
Jacksonville Jaguars
This defense has a ton of youthful talent led by the likes of Josh Allen, Travon Walker and Tyson Campbell. This defense stands out as one of the youngest in the NFL. As they enter Year 2 in their scheme, there is significant potential for growth.
However, the team should expect a mix of exceptional performances from game-changers like Allen and Walker, alongside challenges when facing formidable offenses that can exploit their relative inexperience. There’s a lot to love about the Jacksonville Jaguars, but they are another year away from taking the next step.
Tier 6: Missing Talent
This tier comprises teams whose defensive scheme allows them occasional outstanding performances but is susceptible to surrendering big plays due to a lack of talent. Despite featuring some of the league's better defensive coordinators, these teams struggle to execute their strategies due to the talent deficit.
>> LISTEN: Cover 5 Podcast Talking Tiers 6, 7 on Apple, Spotify
Houston Texans
DeMeco Ryans faces an intriguing challenge in Houston as he looks to continue his defensive dominance with a less talented group. While he has three promising mainstays in Will Anderson, Derek Stingley and Jalen Pitre, the remainder of the team is predominantly veteran players who may not have a long-term future with the franchise.
Consequently, as Ryans implements his system, there is the potential for initial growing pains similar to what Saleh encountered in his inaugural year with the Jets. This defense was outstanding against the pass under Lovie Smith, but that was a mix of the two high coverage they played and opponents not having to throw much.
Tennessee Titans
Coach Mike Vrabel’s no-nonsense style and emphasis on eliminating opposing run games leave his secondary vulnerable in one-on-one coverage. There’s a reason the Tennessee Titans surrendered the most pass yards per game a season ago at 274.8.
The relatively low blitz rates (18.1 percent) mean the front four are primarily responsible for generating pressure on their own. Sean Murphy-Bunting's impact on an otherwise young cornerback unit is unknown.
Indianapolis Colts
Gus Bradley, known for creating the Legion of Boom, constructed an impressive defense last season. However, there are concerns with this year’s unit. They are set to field rookie cornerbacks, which could lead to initial challenges and learning curves.
While they possess a dominant force in DT DeForest Buckner, they lack a disruptive edge rusher who can wreak havoc in the backfield.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings changed defensive coordinators from the ultra-conservative Ed Donatell to the mega-aggressive Brian Flores. Instead of a prevent defense that allowed teams to win underneath, expect this defense to be susceptible to splash plays in man coverage.
The offense’s ability to generate splash plays and run-up scores will make the defense’s job harder and potentially put them near the top of the league in total snaps played.
Chicago Bears
Despite addressing some needs, the Chicago Bears fell short in their most critical aspect: generating a formidable pass rush. They had the lowest pressure rate at 24.4 percent last season.
Unfortunately, they failed to acquire a significant addition to their defensive line. They do have two outstanding linebackers who excel in covering the middle of the field. However, the effectiveness of their talented coverage pieces becomes irrelevant if the pass rush fails to apply consistent pressure.
Tier 7: Long Road Ahead
This tier of teams faces a significant challenge in limiting opposing passing attacks, except against the worst offensive lines and quarterbacks. In all formats, they will be prime targets early on. These teams have a long road ahead to improve their secondary.
Las Vegas Raiders
Maxx Crosby shines as one of football's top defensive ends but still needs strong support on the defensive line. Chandler Jones had a challenging season, and we do not expect a rebound. The Las Vegas Raiders' cornerback unit lacks the talent to defend the talented passing attacks they face on their schedule.
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals embark on what is likely to be an extended rebuild after moving on from the majority of their coaching staff following the 2022 season. Gannon makes the move to head coach of the Cardinals while Nick Rallis steps into the vacant defensive coordinator position.
The secondary is in shambles, with only safety Budda Baker projected to be an above-replacement-level starter.
Los Angeles Rams
The Los Angeles Rams sit with 71 percent of their defensive depth chart as rookies. Every starter in their secondary has been drafted in the fourth round or later in the previous four drafts.
Not one member of their secondary has been graded as above replacement level during their respective careers. This team is in for some trouble against the pass in 2023 on any play Aaron Donald does not impact.
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