Analysis
10/27/22
6 min read
NFL Week 8 DVOA Dispatch: Best DFS Targets
The Ravens, Cowboys and Raiders came through for us last week. The Dispatch ranked their run games as the top three to target. Josh Jacobs is on a roll! We also had the Bengals as a top-three pass game to target, even specifying Tyler Boyd as a player to watch for.
There were definitely some misses (Dolphins and Buccaneers pass attacks). Still, as stated in the debut article, the system does not account for injury, weather, coaching changes, mid-season strategy changes or player marital issues. Tom Brady would have been best served to have stayed retired. Also, poor now-benched "outdoor game Matt Ryan." If a single photon of natural sunshine hits his skin, he loses his power to play professional QB. His kryptonite is sunlight and fresh air. And a four-score lead in the Super Bowl.
Passing Game Targets
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa and company are again the highest-rated pass game this week. I'm not sure if the concussions are slowing Tagovailoa down or what. If he can't excel in a second straight cake matchup, put him back in the protocol and let Teddy "Two Gloves" Bridgewater run the offense. The other concern is the Dolphins rank in the top half of my rushing ranks this week, and Detroit is 31st in rush EPA. Attack Detroit as you see fit. Their defense also ranks dead last in yards per game, yards per play and points per game. Come on, Miami!
Philadelphia Eagles
The Battle for Pennsylvania is on! Though Pittsburgh probably wishes these teams were still the "Steagles" right now. While the Steelers can really defend the TE position, they are abysmal against WRs (30th). Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is a beast with his arm and legs, and WR A.J. Brown is poised to smash.
Buffalo Bills
"Small-town showdown." This matchup is a Josh Allen/Stefon Diggs/Gabe Davis spot. The Packers have the sixth-ranked defense against slot WRs and are 10th against TEs. But even with shutdown cornerback Jaire Alexander, they are a mediocre 17th against the WR position. One consideration is the Packers are a paltry 30th in rush defense EPA. Fire up Devin Singletary this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Have mercy on us. Brady keeps disappointing. In yet another soft matchup for him, he should be targeting his slot man Chris Godwin. The Ravens' defense is 30th in slot WR EPA. Mike Evans is no slouch either, as the Ravens' defense is also only 23rd vs. WRs. Can we trust we get the GOAT version of Brady, not the deadbeat one?
New Orleans Saints
It would appear Andy Dalton is at the helm again this week. I would buy low here. The Raiders are 32nd vs. WRs and 29th vs. slot WRs, rank 27th in pass yards allowed per game, have the 30th-ranked sack rate and a 25th-ranked interception rate, but are excellent at defending the run. The Saints' previous opponent (the Cardinals) has the third-best defense EPA in the league against WRs. This should be a low-owned bounce-back spot we can capitalize on. Any healthy starting WR is playable, especially Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry.
Cincinnati Bengals
We meet again, Joe Burrow. After making us look smart last week, the Bengals' passing attack is once again gracing us on this list. The Browns are middle-of-the-pack in EPA vs. WRs and TEs and are fairly strong (ninth) against slot WRs. As much as I was on Boyd last week, I will be fading him this week. Remember the Browns are most vulnerable against the rush, ranking 32nd in EPA.
Minnesota Vikings
If Dalton can put up 30 completions, 350+ yards and four TDs on the Cardinals' excellent pass defense, why couldn't Kirk Cousins? The Cardinals are terrible against TEs (32nd) and mediocre against slot WRs (16th), so Justin Jefferson and Irv Smith Jr. are both targets for me.
Detroit Lions
In what could be Dan Campbell's swan song, I expect his guys to rally around their coach. Miami has shown flashes, but their defense remains vulnerable to WRs. With a low sack rate (24th) and the Lions' incredible offensive line, you can take a shot on a track meet. QB Jared Goff, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and TE T.J, Hockenson should all be in your player pool this week.
Passing game fades: Bears, Cowboys, Steelers, Patriots
Rushing Game Targets
New York Giants
Is this a mirage? Nope, the 6-1 Giants are for real. Far and away, the top play in my system is Saquon Barkley. Daniel Jones has done plenty of running, so he could be a high-floor, high-ceiling player to look into against the Seahawks' rush defense, ranked 22nd in EPA and 27th in yards per rush. If I use an optimizer for DFS tournaments this week, Saquon will be in 50% of my lineups.
Seattle Seahawks
What a coincidence, the Giants' opponent is ranked second in my system! Rookie sensation Kenneth Walker will continue to make his case for rookie of the year against a Giants defense allowing the most yards per carry and ranking 25th in rush EPA.
Cleveland Browns
The Bengals rank well in pass defense, and the Browns want to avoid passing; a wonderful match for Nick Chubb. I think the Browns see what the Bengals have been doing with their increased pass rate and will do what it takes to keep Joe Burrow off the field. Run, run, run.
Tennessee Titans
King (Derrick) Henry is set to rule over the lowly Texans' run defense this week. Houston ranks 28th in EPA and 29th in yards per rush. Henry eats defenses like this for dinner.
Atlanta Falcons
I don't trust this. The Carolina defense is first in run EPA and eighth in yards per rush. Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier has been serviceable but not astonishing. QB Marcus Mariota has an excellent chance to lead the team in rush yards this week. No Falcons player will have my investment in DFS.
Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott came through for us last week, but with an apparent leg injury, I would look the way of Tony Pollard. The Bears' run defense ranks 23rd in EPA and 24th in yards per rush.
Running game fades: Rams, Buccaneers, Colts, Packers
(Stats courtesy of Football Outsiders and Trumedia Networks)
WATCH MORE: Which Bucs' WR Should You Start Against the Ravens?
