Analysis
11/21/22
16 min read
33 Fantasy Football Takeaways from NFL Week 11
Below, you’ll find (at least) 33 fantasy football takeaways from Week 11. Advanced usage data is examined each week, as usage is a much better indicator of future fantasy points than current fantasy points.
Essentially, NFL teams never look at fantasy points, so we shouldn’t focus too much attention on them either if we want to predict what teams will do moving forward.
Titans at Packers (27 - 17)
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- Treylon Burks had the big breakout game with eight targets (30% share), and he brought in seven catches for 111 yards and 18.1 PPR points.
- Robert Woods has only two games with more than 39 yards receiving this season, and Burks is poised to become the consistent alpha in this receiving room. Value Burks as a borderline top-24 fantasy WR for the rest of the season.
- After four catches for 107Â yards and three TDs in Week 10, Christian Watson followed that up with four catches (six targets) for 48 yards and two more scores. That's now back-to-back games with at least 21 fantasy points for the second-round rookie, who I'd value similarly to Burks for the rest of the season.
- While Watson gathered the fantasy points' attention, Allen Lazard quietly had his best usage game of 2022 with a season-high 11 targets (30% share) and 165 air yards. He only brought in five for 57 yards, but bigger games are in store moving forward. He has a 21% or higher target share each of the past seven games.
Bears at Falcons (24 - 27)
- Justin Fields now has five straight games with at least 23 fantasy points. Though, he may have picked up a moderately severe shoulder injury that will force him to miss time.
- David Montgomery handled 17 of 23 RB carries and ran 24 routes to Trestan Ebner's seven in Week 11. Montgomery had four of the five RB targets, bringing in three for 54 yards receiving. Montgomery totaled 121 yards and 21.1 fantasy points in Khalil Herbert's absence (IR) and should be valued as a top-15 RB for the rest of the season.
- Chase Claypool can be dropped in all redraft formats (if he hasn't been already). Through three games with Chicago, his route participation is 42%, 27% and 55%. In a low-volume (and below-average) passing offense, Claypool needs to be running 90% of the routes to be rostered.
- Kyle Pitts suffered a potentially serious and season-ending knee injury on Sunday. We should find out more information on Monday or Tuesday.
- After only five carries and one target in Week 10, Cordarrelle Patterson handled 10 of 19 RB carries in Week 11, running 10 routes to Tyler Allgeier's eight. I wouldn't do anything drastic like drop Patterson, but I would make other plans for Week 12 as the Falcons face the Commanders' elite run defense on the road.
Eagles at Colts (17 - 16)
- Jalen Hurts had six red zone rush attempts in Week 11, which marks his third time this season with at least six in a game. Overall, he tied his season-high with 16 total attempts, churning out 86 yards and a TD.
- Hurts had less than 200 yards passing but still cranked out 26 fantasy points. After Josh Allen, and especially with the Fields injury, Hurts has the highest floor among fantasy QBs.
- Miles Sanders predictably struggled in a tough matchup against the Colts, with just 47 rushing yards on 13 carries. However, he gets the Packers' run defense next week, so keep him in your starting lineups despite back-to-back down games.
- DeVonta Smith is going to have another monster performance like Week 3 (30.9 PPR) soon. He's now had a 32% or higher target share in three of his past six games and a 22% or higher target share in five of his last six. He brought in six of nine targets for 78 yards in Week 11 for 13.8 PPR points.
- After 46 yards on the opening drive, the Eagles slowed down Jonathan Taylor, who finished with 84 yards on 22 carries. He is back to being an elite RB1 with his usage, however, as he has six red zone (three goal-line carries) and caught three of four targets.
- Deon Jackson has taken on the Nyheim Hines role. He has run 10 routes to Taylor's 20 and brought in all four of his targets for just three yards. Zack Moss was an afterthought with one carry and one route run.
- While Alec Pierce only showed up for three catches and 28 yards in the box score, his 26% target share (eight targets) was a career-high. As long as Matt Ryan remains at QB, Pierce should be stashed on fantasy benches.
Jets at Patriots (3 - 10)
- Zach Wilson completed nine of 22 passes for 77 yards while taking four sacks. Much like his time in college at BYU, Wilson can survive against mediocre defenses but routinely gets shut down by above-average pass defenses.
- NYJ RBs totaled just 4.1 PPR points. Michael Carter had eight carries to James Robinson's seven, and Carter was targeted twice on 13 routes. No Jets RB should be started on a weekly basis, with this being nearly a 50-50 committee on a below-average offense.
- Rhamondre Stevenson continues to see outrageous usage in the passing game and is averaging seven targets and 49 receiving yards per game during his past four contests. He's an every-week RB1 with his pass game involvement, along with 12-20 carries per game.
Commanders at Texans (23 - 10)
- The Commanders thoroughly disappointed on the ground on Sunday. The Texans were allowing 5.4 yards per carry to RBs (second-most in the NFL, via The Edge), but both Brian Robinson (3.8 YPC) and Antonio Gibson (4.0 YPC) were held in check in Week 11.
- While Terry McLaurin only had four catches for 55 yards, he's now had at least a 27% target share in all four of Taylor Heinicke's starts. He's a top-12 option against a dreadful ATL secondary in Week 12.
- Dameon Pierce had eight yards on 10 carries, and I think we have to view the Commanders as the toughest run defense in the NFL going forward.
- While Brandin Cooks had 70 yards receiving, the lost season continued as he was out-targeted by both Nico Collins and Chris Moore. His 65 air yards were nearly twice as high as second-place Moore (39), but 65 yards is still an incredibly low number against a middling Commanders' pass defense. Cooks has a great Week 12 matchup against the pass-funnel Miami defense, but he's still little more than a flex option given Davis Mills, the Texans' overall offense and his own downtick in usage.
Rams at Saints (20 - 27)
- Matthew Stafford left this game early with a concussion. Ironically, he was averaging 8.8 yards per pass attempt (the second-highest of the season) despite not having Cooper Kupp. No WR stepped up in Kupp's absence, as Allen Robinson and Van Jefferson each had five targets (19% share). Tyler Higbee was predictably the target leader with eight (30% share), and he totaled just 52 air yards on those targets.
- The Rams' backfield is a fantasy football headache. Surprisingly, Cam Akers was the touch leader, but fantasy points remain hard to come by in this offense, as their line play is bottom-five each week. While Kyren Williams was the snap leader, the rookie can remain on waiver wires given the offense and overall touch volume among the back each week. Week 11 usage stats are below:
Player Snaps Carries (RZ) Routes Targets Total Yards PPR Cam Akers 24 14 8 0 61 6.1 Kyren Williams 34 7 23 2 44 5.4 Darrell Henderson 4 2 1 0 9 0.9 - Chris Olave has a 22% or higher target share in eight of his past nine games. He had his third 100-yard effort of 2022 in Week 11, catching five of six targets.
- Juwan Johnson has at least 12 fantasy points in four of his past five games and has scored five TDs during that span. The TD pace won't continue, but he does have four red zone targets in that span, which is better than most TEs. He's only topped five targets once in the past five games, so he's not more than a streaming option based on usage.
Browns at Bills (23 - 31)
- Jacoby Brissett surpassed 300 passing yards for the first time all season Sunday afternoon.
- Amari Cooper was the biggest beneficiary, catching eight of 12 targets for 113 yards and two scores. Donovan Peoples-Jones had five catches for 61 yards and scored his first TD of the season. He now has at least 50 yards and nine PPR points in his last seven games, averaging 12.8 PPR/game in that span.
- Nick Chubb had his worst rushing output of the season (19 yards on 14 carries) but ran a season-high 17 routes and caught all three targets for 48 yards, salvaging his fantasy day. Kareem Hunt did run one more route than Chubb though, so I wouldn't expect this type of receiving stat line moving forward.
- While James Cook did have 11 carries to Devin Singletary's 18, eight of those came in the second half, once the Bills were up by multiple scores. Singletary played 45 snaps to Cook's 16 and ran 24 routes to Cooks' three.
- I've mentioned for a couple of weeks now that Gabe Davis' underlying usage is ticking up. His seven targets (28% share) on Sunday marked the third time in his past four games that his target share was at least 24%. He's a high-end WR2 rest of the season now he's shown he is more than just a deep threat.
Panthers at Ravens (3 - 13)
- The Panthers couldn't get anything going on the ground, as D'Onta Foreman (24 yards on 11 carries) and Chuba Hubbard (no yards on four carries) struggled. Baker Mayfield dropped back 39 times and was somehow still held to less than 200 passing yards.
- Terrace Marshall Jr. continued his run of strong usage, leading the team in targets (six, 19% share) and receiving yards (76, all other WRs combined for 57 total). D.J. Moore and Mayfield continue to be on the pages of two entirely different novels, as Moore brought in three of five targets for just 24 yards. In six starts from Mayfield, Moore averages 3.3 catches for only 37 yards.
- Lamar Jackson has struggled as a passer without Rashod Bateman fully healthy this season. Jackson has more than one passing TD in just one of his past seven games and has topped 174 passing yards in just three of his past seven games. He's become just a low-end QB1 (due to his rushing) for the rest of the season.
- Mark Andrews cannot carry a passing attack each week. While Demarcus Robinson had a career day with 128 yards, he had crested 27 receiving yards in only one of nine games heading into Week 9. He should remain on waivers.
Lions at Giants (31 - 18)
- D'Andre Swift was a full practice participant throughout the week, but we know that means very little now. Jamaal Williams fell into the end zone three times, but his upside will generally be capped outside of nutty TD spike weeks. He has seen just zero targets (on 15 routes) during the past three weeks. Week 11 RB usage is shown below:
Player Snaps Carries (RZ/GL) Routes Targets Total Yards PPR Jamaal Williams 30 17 (3/3) 7 0 64 24.4 Justin Jackson 24 9 (1/0) 9 1 77 8.7 D'Andre Swift 20 5 (3/2) 9 3 32 12.2 - DJ Chark returned from IR in Week 11, running only five routes and receiving one target. He's not even worth a bench stash as rookie first-rounder Jameson Williams will likely be activated by the time Chark is fully back up to speed.
- Despite it being the Lions' defense, Saquon Barkley had his worst game of the season, rushing 15 times for 22 yards (1.5 YPC) and catching two of five targets for 13 yards.
- Wan'Dale Robinson had nine catches for 100 yards on 13 targets before tearing his ACL. He was spotted on crutches after the game, and should at least miss the Thanksgiving game. I'd keep him stashed on your fantasy bench unless we find out he's out for the season.
- Darius Slayton now has at least a 19% target share, 58 yards, and 11.6 PPR points in five of his past six games. Especially if Wan'Dale misses time (knee), Slayton should be locked into WR3 spots moving forward.
Raiders at Broncos (22 - 16)
- Davante Adams now has at least 17 fantasy points in seven of 10 games and has topped 125 yards and 27 fantasy points in each of his past three.
- Latavius Murray handled 17 carries to Melvin Gordon's eight, a reaction to a Gordon fumble mid-game. This remains a tough backfield for fantasy, as it's a 50-50 committee most weeks. While both Murray and Gordon scored TDs, I still wouldn't start them as anything more than mid-range RB3 types.
- This is a low-scoring Denver offense, and Kendall Hinton went down at the one-yard line on a catch early in the game. Russell Wilson will start converting a higher percentage of TDs through the air, taking away from the backs.
- Courtland Sutton led the team in targets (seven, 25% share) and yards (80) with Jerry Jeudy sidelined. As the target hog on one of the NFL's most ineffective passing offenses, he remains a WR2 for as long as Jeudy is out.
- Greg Dulcich bounced back after a disappointing Week 10, with four catches on five targets (18% share), turning them into 30 yards. He remains a top-12 weekly option at TE, who can get as high as TE6 based on the matchup.
Cowboys at Vikings (40 - 3)
- Tony Pollard had back-to-back games with at least 21 fantasy points in Weeks 8 and 10 (while Ezekiel Elliott was injured, but hadn't reached 20 points in any game overlapping with him heading into Week 11. Even with Elliot returning this week, Pollard still managed 80 rushing yards on 15 carries while bringing in all six targets for 109 yards and two TDs, which totaled 37 fantasy points.
- Even with a healthy Elliot, the cat is just too far out of the bag at this point, and Pollard should be a weekly high-end RB2 if he can get featured in the passing game each week.
- Kirk Cousins had his worst game of the season, totaling 105 yards on 23 pass attempts. Despite the low volume, T.J. Hockenson racked up his third straight game with at least nine targets as a Viking. One-hundred percent of the red zone/end zone targets went to Hockenson against the Cowboys, and it's a matter of if, not when, he scores his first TD as a Viking. He remains the clear TE3 rest of the season behind Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews.
Bengals at Steelers (37 - 30)
- Joe Mixon left this game early with a concussion. In his absence, Samaje Perine carried 11 times for 30 yards and caught all four targets for 42 yards and three TDs (30.2 PPR points). I'd operate as if Mixon misses Week 12, so Perine is a mid-range RB2 against the Titans' stout run defense in Week 12. Perine likely gets 15 and three to five targets, so he'll have a moderate floor due to usage.
- Tee Higgins had a massive game with Ja'Marr Chase still sidelined (hip). He caught nine of 13 targets (35% share) for 148 yards. While Tyler Boyd didn't record his two catches until the end of the game, his seven targets were still good for a 19% share. No other Bengals WR had more than four targets, and they should all remain on waivers, even with Chase hurt.
- Kenny Pickett had a career-high 422 passing air yards in this contest as the Steelers trailed throughout. He threw for only 265 yards on 42 attempts (6.3 yards per attempt) and still has yet to reach 7.0 Y/A in any game this year.
- After several weeks of Jaylen Warren eating into Najee Harris' workload, Harris had his rookie year ultra bell-cow role back in Week 11. Their usage stats against CIN are below:
Player Snaps Carries (RZ/GL) Routes Targets Total Yards PPR Najee Harris 54 20 (2/1) 29 6 116 27.6 Jaylen Warren 3 0 3 1 9 1.9 - Pat Freiermuth (12 targets, 32% share) and George Pickens (six targets, 16% share) stole the passing game show, as Freiermuth caught eight for 79 yards, while Pickens caught four passes for 83 yards and a TD.
- Diontae Johnson had just five targets (13% share), his lowest share of the team's passing offense this season. He had at least a 27% target share in his first three games with Mitchell Trubisky, but Johnson has been below 26% in every game with Pickett this season. For the rest of the season, Johnson and Pickens should be valued similarly, as the chemistry is apparent between the two rookies - Pickett and Pickens.
Chiefs at Chargers (30 - 27)
- Patrick Mahomes cemented himself as the MVP favorite, throwing for 329 yards on a healthy 9.7 yards per attempt. Juju Smith-Schuster (concussion) and Mecole Hardman (IR) missed this game, but Kadarius Toney (hamstring) only ran nine routes. Mahomes was working with Marquez Valdes-Scantling as his WR1, and this was undoubtedly his most impressive performance of this season.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire left early due to injury, but it was clear before he left Isiah Pacheco was a far more effective runner. Pacheco handled 15 of 23 RB carries for a career-high 107 rushing yards. He also ran 10 routes but wasn't targeted.
- Jerick McKinnon lost a crucial fumble in the fourth quarter, so there may be room for Pacheco's role to expand again in Week 12.
- Rookie Skyy Moore saw increased run with the WR injuries (16 routes on 38 Mahomes dropbacks), catching five of six targets for 63 yards. His targets per route run (TPRR) rate of 38% was even higher than Kelce's (10 targets, 35% TPRR), so the talented rookie should be scooped off waivers ahead of Week 12.
- Kelce has double-digit fantasy points in every game this year and has topped 20 fantasy points in six of 10 games. He has been the best fantasy asset of the 2022 season. His 22.3 PPR points per game are in another stratosphere compared to Andrews' (14.9, second place). Plus, Austin Ekeler (23.0), Stefon Diggs (22.7) and Kupp (22.4) are the only skill players with more points per game currently.
We hope you enjoyed reading through these 33 (slightly more to be perfectly transparent) fantasy takeaways from Week 11.
WATCH MORE: Fantasy Football Week 11 Recap
