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Week 17 Underdog High/Low Picks from Larky & Wolby

Week 17 Underdog High/Low Pick

Josh Larky & Ben Wolby outline 10 Week 17 Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.

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Kenny Pickett HIGHER than 183.5 Passing Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Pickett is 7-1 on this number in every game he started and finished this season.
    • He’s averaging 231 passing yards in those games.
  • Opposing QBs are 13-2 against the Ravens in being HIGHER than this number.
    • The two QBs with fewer are Deshaun Watson (161 passing yards) and Daniel Jones (173).
    • Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 241 passing yards per game against Baltimore.

Tom Brady HIGHER than 42.5 Pass Attempts – Josh Larky

  • Brady has been HIGHER than this number in 11 of his past 13 games, averaging 46.9 pass attempts during that span.
  • Against Carolina in Week 7, Brady passed 49 times, and this matchup between the two has the division on the line.
  • The Buccaneers pass at the highest rate in the NFL – 67.0% on the season.

DJ Moore HIGHER than 56.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Moore has gone HIGHER in three of his four games played with Sam Darnold this year.
  • His 27% target percentage is the eighth-highest in the league, via The Edge.
    • His target rate (targets per route run) is 28.6% with Darnold as a passer, meaning he’s seeing a target more than once every four routes run.
  • Moore is averaging 65 yards per game since Darnold returned, and in his career with Darnold as a starter.
    • Ten of 15 games have been HIGHER than this number when Darnold is the starter.
  • Moore is averaging 70 yards in those games.
  • TB is allowing the ninth most receptions to WRs, per The Edge.  

Aaron Rodgers HIGHER than 254.5 Passing Yards – Josh Larky 

  • Eight of the past ten QBs faced by the Vikings have thrown for at least 307 passing yards.
  • The Vikings are known as the easiest secondary to consistently exploit.
    • WR Christian Watson returned to practice on Friday and RB Aaron Jones is still not 100% healthy.

Joe Burrow LOWER than 13.5 Rushing yards – Ben Wolby

  • Burrow has had fewer rushing yards in 9 of 15 games.
  • QBs rush at the 70 lowest rate against Buffalo.
  • Only five QBs had more than 13.5 rushing yards a Buffalo.
    • Lamar Jackson, Malik Willis, Jacoby Brissett, and Zach Wilson (none are pocket passers like Burrow).
    • Patrick Mahomes also was HIGHER, and he’s mobile, picking up chunk plays with his legs.
  • The Edge has the Bengals as a bottom-10 pass block and run block matchup for this week because of Buffalo’s blown block rate. Buffalo is disrupting in the trenches at a high level.

Andy Dalton HIGHER than 0.5 Interceptions – Josh Larky

  • Dalton has thrown 143 career interceptions in 160 career starts.
  • The Eagles have an elite pass defense, with 16 overall interceptions, including at least one in ten of 15 games.

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Leonard Fournette HIGHER than 27.5 Receiving Yards – Ben Wolby

  • Fournette has been HIGHER than this number in ten of 14 games.
  • Since Week 8, he’s averaging ten more yards per game than this line.
    • This includes a 90-yard receiving game last week.
  • This is a divisional game against Carolina, with the division at stake.
    • Brady will prefer to rely on the vet, who is running twice as many routes as rookie RB Rachaad White.

Riley Patterson HIGHER than 1.5 Field Goals Made – Josh Larky

  • The Jaguars offense has been surging in recent weeks, and Patterson has at least two field goals made in six of his past seven games.
  • Since Week 9, Patterson is averaging 2.9 field goals attempted and 2.3 field goals made.
  • Jacksonville has an implied team total of 23 points according to Vegas, so there should be plenty of sustained drives to kick field goals on.

Teddy Bridgewater HIGHER 0.5 Interceptions – Ben Wolby

  • Teddy threw an interception in both games in which he had more than three pass attempts.
  • He’s also thrown 46 interceptions in his 64 starts.
  • New England is third in the NFL in interceptions.

Cam Akers LOWER than 69.5 Rushing Yards – Josh Larky

  • The Chargers allow 5.5 yards per carry to RBs, highest in the NFL, via The Edge.
    • That’s the only concerning part of this line, read on below.
  • This is a massive overreaction to Week 16 when the Rams beat Denver 51-14, and Akers had 23 carries for 118 rushing yards and three TDs.
  • Akers has been LOWER than this number in every other game this year.
  • Before last week against the Broncos, Akers was LOWER than this number in every game since they faced the Packers in the 2020 playoffs, before Akers had his achilles injury.
  • The Rams have a very bad offensive line.
  • The Chargers are projected to win, so unlike last week, the Rams should be trailing for most of this game, forced to pass.

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