Week 17 Underdog High/Low Picks from Larky & Wolby

Josh Larky & Ben Wolby outline 10 Week 17 Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.

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Kenny Pickett HIGHER than 183.5 Passing Yards - Ben Wolby

Pickett is 7-1 on this number in every game he started and finished this season.
- He's averaging 231 passing yards in those games.
Opposing QBs are 13-2 against the Ravens in being HIGHER than this number.
- The two QBs with fewer are Deshaun Watson (161 passing yards) and Daniel Jones (173).
- Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 241 passing yards per game against Baltimore.

Tom Brady HIGHER than 42.5 Pass Attempts - Josh Larky

Brady has been HIGHER than this number in 11 of his past 13 games, averaging 46.9 pass attempts during that span.
Against Carolina in Week 7, Brady passed 49 times, and this matchup between the two has the division on the line.
The Buccaneers pass at the highest rate in the NFL - 67.0% on the season.

DJ Moore HIGHER than 56.5 Receiving Yards - Ben Wolby

Moore has gone HIGHER in three of his four games played with Sam Darnold this year.
His 27% target percentage is the eighth-highest in the league, via The Edge.
- His target rate (targets per route run) is 28.6% with Darnold as a passer, meaning he's seeing a target more than once every four routes run.
Moore is averaging 65 yards per game since Darnold returned, and in his career with Darnold as a starter.
- Ten of 15 games have been HIGHER than this number when Darnold is the starter.
Moore is averaging 70 yards in those games.
TB is allowing the ninth most receptions to WRs, per The Edge.

Aaron Rodgers HIGHER than 254.5 Passing Yards - Josh Larky

Eight of the past ten QBs faced by the Vikings have thrown for at least 307 passing yards.
The Vikings are known as the easiest secondary to consistently exploit.
- WR Christian Watson returned to practice on Friday and RB Aaron Jones is still not 100% healthy.

Joe Burrow LOWER than 13.5 Rushing yards - Ben Wolby

Burrow has had fewer rushing yards in 9 of 15 games.
QBs rush at the 70 lowest rate against Buffalo.
Only five QBs had more than 13.5 rushing yards a Buffalo.
- Lamar Jackson, Malik Willis, Jacoby Brissett, and Zach Wilson (none are pocket passers like Burrow).
- Patrick Mahomes also was HIGHER, and he's mobile, picking up chunk plays with his legs.
The Edge has the Bengals as a bottom-10 pass block and run block matchup for this week because of Buffalo’s blown block rate. Buffalo is disrupting in the trenches at a high level.

Andy Dalton HIGHER than 0.5 Interceptions - Josh Larky

Dalton has thrown 143 career interceptions in 160 career starts.
The Eagles have an elite pass defense, with 16 overall interceptions, including at least one in ten of 15 games.

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Leonard Fournette HIGHER than 27.5 Receiving Yards - Ben Wolby

Fournette has been HIGHER than this number in ten of 14 games.
Since Week 8, he’s averaging ten more yards per game than this line.
- This includes a 90-yard receiving game last week.
This is a divisional game against Carolina, with the division at stake.
- Brady will prefer to rely on the vet, who is running twice as many routes as rookie RB Rachaad White.

Riley Patterson HIGHER than 1.5 Field Goals Made - Josh Larky

The Jaguars offense has been surging in recent weeks, and Patterson has at least two field goals made in six of his past seven games.
Since Week 9, Patterson is averaging 2.9 field goals attempted and 2.3 field goals made.
Jacksonville has an implied team total of 23 points according to Vegas, so there should be plenty of sustained drives to kick field goals on.

Teddy Bridgewater HIGHER 0.5 Interceptions - Ben Wolby

Teddy threw an interception in both games in which he had more than three pass attempts.
He’s also thrown 46 interceptions in his 64 starts.
New England is third in the NFL in interceptions.

Cam Akers LOWER than 69.5 Rushing Yards - Josh Larky

The Chargers allow 5.5 yards per carry to RBs, highest in the NFL, via The Edge.
- That's the only concerning part of this line, read on below.
This is a massive overreaction to Week 16 when the Rams beat Denver 51-14, and Akers had 23 carries for 118 rushing yards and three TDs.
Akers has been LOWER than this number in every other game this year.
Before last week against the Broncos, Akers was LOWER than this number in every game since they faced the Packers in the 2020 playoffs, before Akers had his achilles injury.
The Rams have a very bad offensive line.
The Chargers are projected to win, so unlike last week, the Rams should be trailing for most of this game, forced to pass.