Betting

12/9/22

7 min read

Week 14 Underdog High/Low Picks from Larky and Wolby

Josh Larky & Ben Wolby outline 13 Underdog High/Low Picks for you to take in Week 14. For each High/Low line, we provide insight as to why this is a logical/statistically savvy pick to consider.

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Jerry Jeudy HIGHER than 50.5 Receiving Yards - Josh Larky

Jeudy has at least 53 receiving yards in seven of eight games where he plays at least 20% of the snaps.
The Chiefs allow the seventh most receiving yards per game to WRs (167), via The Edge.
The Broncos are nine point underdogs against KC and Courtland Sutton likely misses this game.
- Russell Wilson will need to throw, and he should throw to Jeudy.

Tua Tagovailoa LOWER than 35.5 Pass Attempts - Ben Wolby

Tua is averaging 31.5 attempts per game.

If you remove the two games he left early, he’s averaging 35, with a median of 34.

Tua has only topped this number in three of ten games (three of eight if you exclude the games where he left early).
QBs vs. the Chargers are averaging 31.5 attempts - only two of 12 QBs had more than 35.5 attempts.

- Trevor Lawrence had 39 against LAC, and Derek Carr had 37 against LAC.

Tua suffered an ankle injury last week, only totaling 15 attempts. QBs listed with an ankle injury during practice are averaging 28.5 attempts in their next game.

Miles Sanders HIGHER than 62.5 Rushing Yards - Josh Larky

Sanders has been HIGHER than this number in seven of 12 games this season.
Four of the games where Sanders was LOWER than this number were against well above average run defenses (WAS x2, IND, TEN).
ARI is the only middle of the road run defense that Sanders wasn't able to top 62.5 rushing yards against.
The Giants allow a healthy 5.1 yards per carry to opposing backs, second-highest in the NFL, per The Edge.
The Eagles have the BIGGEST advantage in the trenches (PHI OLine vs. NYG DLine) according to our brand new Trenches Tool.

Saquon Barkley LOWER than 21.5 Receiving Yards - Ben Wolby

Barkley has more than 21.5 receiving yards in just four of 12 games.
Starting RBs against the Eagles have topped this in just three of 12 games.

Opposing RBs rank in the bottom-10 in receiving yards per game against the Eagles, per The Edge.

Saquon has seen the second and third most targets he’s seen all year over the past two weeks, yet still was LOWER in both.

Saquon is on a four game streak going LOWER.

The Giants have another low target depth pass catcher this week in TE Daniel Bellinger, taking away check-downs to Saquon.

Dameon Pierce LOWER than 85.5 Total Yards - Josh Larky

Pierce has averaged 31 rushing yards in five games against above average run defenses.
In seven games against weaker run defenses, Pierce averages 101 rushing yards.
Week 14 against Dallas most certainly qualifies as a difficult matchup.
Pierce has no more than 28 receiving yards in a game this season.
- If you think he ties his receiving career-high in this game, he still needs 58 rushing yards to be HIGHER than this number.
This is my favorite play of the week.

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Jared Goff HIGHER than 22.5 Completions - Josh Larky

Goff is HIGHER in only five of 12 games.
But, when putting QBs through the MIN pass defense factory, we see why this is a great line to take.
- Week 6 against MIA, MIN allowed 30 completions.
- Week 7 MIN was on bye.
- Week 8 against ARI, MIN allowed 31 completions.
- Week 9 against WAS, MIN allowed 15 completions (Taylor Heinicke).
- Week 10 against BUF, MIN allowed 29 completions.
- Week 11 against DAL, MIN allowed 26 completions.
- Week 12 against NE, MIN allowed 28 completions.
- Week 13 against NYJ, MIN allowed 31 completions.

Darius Slayton HIGHER than 46.5 Receiving Yards - Josh Larky

Slayton has at least three catches and 58 receiving yards in seven of his past eight games.
NYG likely trails against PHI, and Slayton is the only viable WR on their current roster.

Brandon Aiyuk HIGHER than 3.5 Receptions - Ben Wolby

Aiyuk ran the most routes of any SF WR last week, totaling five receptions from Brock Purdy.
Since Jimmy Garappolo became the starter, Aiyuk leads the team in target share, and saw eight targets last week from Purdy.

Even since trading for Christian McCaffery, Aiyuk is averaging only a hair under five receptions per game

Tampa Bay’s defense is perfectly average, and as long as Aiyuk continues to be SFs WR1, he’ll have his fair share of looks.

Mark Andrews HIGHER than 56.5 Receiving Yards - Josh Larky

Tyler Huntley has started four games over the past two years.
In those games, Andrews has at least 73 receiving yards in all four contests.
He averages 11 targets and 96 receiving yards in those games.
I'm expecting Huntley to once again key in on Andrews in a must-win game for Baltimore.

Josh Allen LOWER than 256.5 Passing Yards - Ben Wolby

Josh Allen has had fewer than 256.5 passing yards in three straight games since injuring his UCL (elbow).

Allen is averaging 224 yards per game in that time frame, which is down 26% c0mpared to the first ten games of the season.

The only QB to have more than 256.5 passing yards against the Jets was Joe Burrow in Week 3, per The Edge.
The Jets have the fifth best pass DVOA, per Football Outsiders.

Daniel Bellinger HIGHER than 19.5 Receiving Yards - Josh Larky

Bellinger has been HIGHER than this number in five of the six games where he played at least 50% of the snaps.
Bellinger returned from IR in Week 13, playing 97% of the snaps, and catching all five targets for 24 yards.
Ten TEs have at least 20 yards against PHI this season, per The Edge.
The Eagles allow 42 yards per game to TEs, despite not facing Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, George Kittle, Gerald Everett, David Njoku, or Dalton Schultz.

Daniel Jones HIGHER than 28.5 Pass Attempts - Ben Wolby

The Eagles defense is giving up 33 pass attempts per game.

Eight of 12 opposing quarterbacks have had 29 or more attempts this season against PHI.

Daniel Jones has had more than this in seven of 12 games, including three straight games.

Jones has gone over in all three matchups against NFC East division rivals.

The Giants once again have another pass catcher this week in TE Daniel Bellinger.

Deshaun Watson HIGHER than 0.5 Interceptions - Josh Larky

Watson hadn't played football in 700 days, and looked rusty when he returned against HOU last week.
He only attempted 22 passes, and was still intercepted by a below average HOU defense.
He'll need to throw much more than that against a Bengals team that should put up serious points.
The Bengals have a much better defense overall than the Texans.
Watson likely drops backs 35-40 times in this contest, allowing the Bengals increased opportunities to pick him off.

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We hope you enjoyed reading through these Underdog High/Low Picks for Week 14. As always, deposit your money responsibly.