Cleveland Browns (2-4) at Baltimore Ravens (3-3)
Opening Spread: Ravens -6.5.
Opening Game Total: 46.5.
Opening Team Totals: Ravens (26.5), Browns (20).
Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain.
The Line Report
- This line opened between Ravens -6.5 and Ravens -7.
- This line has stabilized at Ravens -6.5 as of Wednesday evening.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Ravens -6.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Ravens -6.5.
- This total opened at 46.5 points.
- This total remains at 46.5 points.
Ravens: Questionable: QB Lamar Jackson, RB J.K. Dobbins, FB Patrick Ricard, WR Rashod Bateman, TE Mark Andrews, LT Ronnie Staley, RT Morgan Moses, DL Calais Campbell, Edge Justin Houston.
Browns: Questionable: RG Wyatt Teller, RT Jack Conklin, Edge Myles Garrett, Edge Jadeveon Clowney, CB Denzel Ward.
The Ravens Offense vs. Browns Defense
At full strength the Ravens have a fringe top-10 offensive line. Lamar Jackson’s historic running abilities help Baltimore in pressure management and the run game. That said, both of Baltimore’s starting offensive tackles are on the injury report. If one or both of them miss this contest, Browns Edge Myles Garrett is not the opponent you want to face with a backup tackle. The Ravens have a slight edge in the trenches from a macro sense, but Garrett is a matchup nightmare against virtually any opponent.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Ravens are 3-3 against the spread this season.
- The Ravens are 2-4 on overs this season.
- Lamar Jackson is 34-29-1 against the spread in his career.
- Lamar Jackson is 30-34 on overs in his career.
- John Harbaugh is 116-106-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- John Harbaugh is 112-118-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Ravens are scoring 26.3 points per game, good for fifth in the league.
- Baltimore is 25th in the league in yards passing per game and sixth in yards rushing.
- Our Head of Pro Scouting, T.J. McCreight, has ranked Lamar Jackson as the fifth best quarterback this season.
- Per the Edge, Lamar Jackson is fifth in the league with 451 yards rushing.
- J.K. Dobbins’ previously injured knee tightened up last week, which led to Kenyan Drake rushing for 119 yards and a score on 10 carries.
- Baltimore rarely gives any running back bell cow usage.
- Rashod Bateman has a 19.5% target share with a 27.6% air yards share. Bateman has missed each of the last two games.
- Devin Duvernay has a 14.6% target share with an 18% team air yards share.
- Mark Andrews is second among all pass catchers with a 33.3% target share and he’s 10th with a 38.6% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Rashod Bateman has played 114 snaps on the perimeter and 16 in the slot.
- Devin Duvernay has played 145 snaps on the perimeter and 68 in the slot.
- Mark Andrews has played 69 snaps as an inline tight end, 69 on the perimeter, and 172 in the slot.
- The Browns have allowed 27.2 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
- Cleveland held Marcus Mariota to three yards rushing on five carries in Week 4.
- Per The Edge, the Browns have allowed the fifth most yards rushing per game and the 25th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- On a per game basis, Cleveland has given up the 13th most yards receiving on the 22nd most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- Cleveland has given up the fourth most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers this year.
- The Browns have allowed the 15th most yards receiving per game on the 25th most receptions per game to tight ends this season.
The Browns Offense vs. Ravens Defense
The Browns have a top-five caliber offensive line. The Ravens have a middle-of-the-pack type of front four. Cleveland has a moderate edge in the trenches in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Browns are 2-4 against the spread this season.
- The Browns are 6-0 on overs this season.
- Jacoby Brissett is 32-31-2 against the spread in his career.
- Jacoby Brissett is 32-33 on overs in his career.
- Kevin Stefanski is 15-24 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kevin Stefanski is 22-17 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Browns are scoring 24.7 points per game, good for seventh in the league.
- Cleveland is 23rd in the league in yards passing per game and first in yards rushing.
- Our head of scouting, T.J. McCreight, has ranked Nick Chubb as the top running back in football.
- Per the Edge, Nick Chubb leads the league in yards rushing (649) and yards after contact (444). Chubb is averaging 5.9 yards per carry, which is third among running backs with at least 50 carries.
- Kareem Hunt is, arguably, the best secondary running back in the league. His passing game role has been a little disappointing to this point.
- Amari Cooper is 14th among all pass catchers in target share (27.6%) and air yards share 37.9%).
- David Njoku is 10th among tight ends in target share (17.9%) and eighth in air yards share (14.8%).
- Per TruMedia, Amari Cooper has played 287 snaps on the perimeter and 52 in the slot.
- Donovan Peoples-Jones has played 235 snaps on the perimeter and 110 in the slot.
- The Ravens have allowed 23.5 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Ravens have allowed the 22nd most yards rushing per game and the seventh most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Baltimore has allowed the third most yards receiving per game on the second most receptions per game to wide receivers this year.
- Baltimore has allowed the 10th most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers and the third most to wide receivers lined up in the slot.
- The Ravens have allowed the 24th most yards receiving per game to tight ends and the 23rd most receptions per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Browns vs. Ravens
The Ravens are 3-1 against Cleveland over the past two years. Three of those four matchups have been one score games, while one of them breached 80 total points.
Few offenses are more reliant on their quarterback than the Ravens are on Lamar Jackson. Even when they are at full strength, Baltimore has provided Lamar with an average supporting cast on offense. Similarly, the Ravens defense is not like the one we grew up with. The Ravens secondary still has considerable potential when they are at full strength, but this defense as a whole has underwhelmed through the first six games. If you’re betting on the Ravens, you’re either betting on an explosive outing from Lamar Jackson or you’re betting on this defense playing their best game of the season to date against a familiar, divisional opponent.
On the Cleveland side, the Browns have a top-five offensive line which supports their league-best rushing attack. Jacoby Brissett has been very solid, but as we saw last week against the Patriots this offense isn’t really built to play from behind. Just like the Ravens, the Browns defense has underwhelmed through the first six games. If you’re betting on the Browns, you are betting on their defense to limit Lamar Jackson while their run-centric offense keeps them in this game from start to finish. The Browns are an unexpected 6-0 on overs this season, I could see that coming to an end this week.
Awards Market Ramifications: Lamar Jackson is a fading MVP contender. Mark Andrews is an Offensive Player of the Year candidate. Myles Garrett is a Defensive Player of the Year Contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Baltimore in winner pools, though I might take Cleveland in one as a way to get different from the field in one of my entries. I expect to be right around consensus on Baltimore in confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I think Baltimore wins this game, but I agree with our Chris Farley that this Ravens team shouldn’t be giving seven full points to anyone right now. Cleveland has a talented roster and is in desperation mode at 2-4. If I play this game, it will be from the Browns side.
Survivor Pool: I’m going to pass on Baltimore in survivor pools this week in favor of other options. Check this out if you’d like to plan ahead on Baltimore in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 21-9
Props 2022: 19-12