Betting
5/24/23
4 min read
NFL Division Winners: Betting Which Team Is Most Likely to Repeat
Former NFL Executive Jeff Diamond released a great piece ranking each team’s chances of repeating as division winners. His insight aligns quite well with the betting markets, which provide further context to each situation.
All betting odds present in this piece are from DraftKings Sportsbook. There may be slightly different odds present on other books. All betting odds figures include the implied percentage odds for context.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Current Division Odds: -165 (62.3%)
The Kansas City Chiefs have the best odds among all teams to repeat as division winners, and they probably should. Kansas City has won the division each of the past seven seasons. The next closest team in the AFC West is the Los Angeles Chargers at +340 (22.7 percent).
Patrick Mahomes just won the Super Bowl in his first season without Tyreek Hill. With Andy Reid dialing up plays, this offense has shown elite efficiency year after year. Our Power Rankings currently have the Chiefs as the top team in the NFL, and that entire podcast episode, running through all 32 teams, can be found here.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Current Division Odds: -120 (54.6%)
The Philadelphia Eagles have one of the NFL’s best rosters and have among the highest odds to win their division in 2023. The Dallas Cowboys are listed at +190 (34.5 percent), representing the Eagles’ best competition for this season. On paper, the Eagles have a slight edge against the Cowboys in most position groups, which likely influences the odds.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
Current Division Odds: -150 (60%)
The Jacksonville Jaguars have a stranglehold on this division for 2023, as their opponents all drafted rookie quarterbacks within the top-35 picks of the most recent NFL Draft, signaling impending rebuilds. The Tennessee Titans, at +400 (20 percent), are the closest team after the Jaguars to win their division. We discussed why the Jaguars at -150 is a solid bet in this research article.
4. Cincinnati Bengals
Current Division Odds: +140 (41.7%)
The Cincinnati Bengals have the highest odds of winning the AFC North, with the Baltimore Ravens close behind at +240 (29.4 percent). Diamond strays from the markets with this pick, as Joe Burrow has a case as the NFL’s second-best quarterback behind Mahomes.
5. San Francisco 49ers
Current Odds: -150 (60%)
The San Francisco 49ers are tied with Jacksonville for the second-highest odds of winning their division, so their ranking here at No. 5 may appear low at first glance. Digging in deeper, there are a few issues with the 49ers roster, as it’s unclear who will take their opening-day snaps at quarterback.
Additionally, the offensive line is quite thin beside left tackle Trent Williams. The Seattle Seahawks have the next closest odds at +200 (33.3 percent), and we recommended taking the Seahawks as division winners at +450 (18.2%) in this article from March 2023.
6. Buffalo Bills
Current Division Odds: +115 (46.5%)
The Buffalo Bills have the highest odds within the AFC East to win the division, but there are two other strong teams they’ll be contending with. The New York Jets (+280, 26.3 percent) have an elite defense and traded for Aaron Rodgers. Also, the Miami Dolphins (+300, 25 percent) had the NFL’s most efficient passing offense last year and brought in Jalen Ramsey to help their secondary. Josh Allen will have a taller task than last year when trying to win the division in 2023.
7. Minnesota Vikings
Current Division Odds: +275 (26.7%)
The Minnesota Vikings look less talented than the Detroit Lions (+130, 43.5 percent), and Diamond is right on the money with this ranking. According to the betting markets, the Vikings are about as likely to win the NFC North as the Jets are to win the AFC East. Kirk Cousins is likely gone after 2023, and this Minnesota team looks like they’re on the precipice of a complete rebuild.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current Division Odds: +700 (12.5%)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored the second-fewest points in the NFL last year and now transition from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield at quarterback. They have the lowest odds to win the NFC South, with the New Orleans Saints the current frontrunners at +115 (46.5 percent). Diamond’s intuition and analysis line up perfectly with the betting markets.
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