Betting

Josh Larky’s Monday Night Football Player Props for Colts vs. Chargers

Monday Night Football Player Props

Below, you’ll find six Monday Night Football player props and one parlay I’ve put my soft-earned money on. For each line, I provide the sportsbook I used, along with my logical/statistical reasoning for taking the prop.

I’m including the implied odds, along with the betting odds, to help make the math easier for folks. +450 may be less intuitive than an 18% implied chance of the line hitting. Essentially, if I take a prop at +450, I’m expecting it to hit more than 18% of the time in order to be profitable long-term.

Austin Ekeler UNDER 55.5 Yards Rushing

Odds: -110 (52%) on Bet365

  • Ekeler has been UNDER this number in 10 of 14 games (71%) this season.
  • The Colts only allow 4.1 yards per carry to backs, 21st in the NFL, via The Edge.
  • Ekeler averages 4.2 yards per carry this year.
  • If we assume he averages 4.2 yards per carry tonight, he needs at least 13 carries to reach 56 rushing yards.
    • Ekeler has not had double-digit carries in four straight games this year and has 10, 15 and 12 carries during his past three.
    • Ekeler has more than 12 carries in just two of his past six games.
  • Heading into Week 16, the Colts allow the eighth-most yards receiving to RBs.
    • Ekeler’s skill set is heavily skewed toward receiving, and this matchup favors his pass-game usage.

Justin Herbert OVER 37.5 Pass Attempts

Odds: -120 (55%) on Bet365

  • Herbert has at least 42 pass attempts in each of the past four games.
    • The past four games are the only games this year that Keenan Allen has played at least 75% of the snaps.
  • Herbert has OVER 37.5 attempts in 10 of 14 games (71%) this season.

Allen MORE Yards Receiving than Michael Pittman Jr. 

Odds: -115 (53%) on DraftKings

  • Since returning from injury in Week 11, Allen has MORE yards receiving than Pittman in four of those five games.
  • Pittman has never caught a pass from new Colts QB Nick Foles.

Allen to Reach 75 Yards Receiving  

Odds: +175 (36%) on Bet365

  • Allen returned from injury in Week 11.
  • Since Week 11, he has at least 86 yards receiving in four of five games.
  • He’s averaged 10.4 targets, 7.2 receptions and 81.8 yards receiving per game since Week 11.

Parlay: Allen 75 Yards Receiving + Ekeler UNDER 55.5 Yards Rushing

Odds: +450 (18%) on Bet365

  • I anticipate a pass-heavy game plan with all the Chargers’ pass-catchers healthy.
  • As mentioned earlier, Allen has exceeded this number in four of his past five games.
  • As mentioned earlier, Ekeler should be more heavily utilized in the passing game.
  • I’d estimate at least a 30% chance of this parlay hitting, yet the implied odds just need it to hit 18% of the time for this type of bet to be profitable long-term.

Deon Jackson to Reach 50 Yards Rushing

Odds: +360 (22%) on Bet365

  • Jackson has played at least 30% of the snaps in four games this year, going OVER this number in two of four (50%).
  • Jackson could split carries with Zack Moss. I’d give the edge to Moss, there’s a real chance Jackson finishes with more carries, given the hot-hand approach.
  • The Chargers allow an NFL-high 5.5 yards per carry to RBs, via The Edge.

Josh Palmer OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards

Odds: -110 (52%) on DraftKings

  • Palmer has at least 44 receiving yards in eight straight games.

We hope you enjoyed reading through these Monday Night Football player props. Be sure to always bet responsibly.

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