Betting
12/26/22
3 min read
Josh Larky's Monday Night Football Player Props for Colts vs. Chargers
Below, you’ll find six Monday Night Football player props and one parlay I’ve put my soft-earned money on. For each line, I provide the sportsbook I used, along with my logical/statistical reasoning for taking the prop.
I’m including the implied odds, along with the betting odds, to help make the math easier for folks. +450 may be less intuitive than an 18% implied chance of the line hitting. Essentially, if I take a prop at +450, I’m expecting it to hit more than 18% of the time in order to be profitable long-term.
Austin Ekeler UNDER 55.5 Yards Rushing
Odds: -110 (52%) on Bet365
- Ekeler has been UNDER this number in 10 of 14 games (71%) this season.
- The Colts only allow 4.1 yards per carry to backs, 21st in the NFL, via The Edge.
- Ekeler averages 4.2 yards per carry this year.
- If we assume he averages 4.2 yards per carry tonight, he needs at least 13 carries to reach 56 rushing yards.
- Ekeler has not had double-digit carries in four straight games this year and has 10, 15 and 12 carries during his past three.
- Ekeler has more than 12 carries in just two of his past six games.
- Heading into Week 16, the Colts allow the eighth-most yards receiving to RBs.
- Ekeler's skill set is heavily skewed toward receiving, and this matchup favors his pass-game usage.
Justin Herbert OVER 37.5 Pass Attempts
Odds: -120 (55%) on Bet365
- Herbert has at least 42 pass attempts in each of the past four games.
- The past four games are the only games this year that Keenan Allen has played at least 75% of the snaps.
- Herbert has OVER 37.5 attempts in 10 of 14 games (71%) this season.
Allen MORE Yards Receiving than Michael Pittman Jr.
Odds: -115 (53%) on DraftKings
- Since returning from injury in Week 11, Allen has MORE yards receiving than Pittman in four of those five games.
- Pittman has never caught a pass from new Colts QB Nick Foles.
Allen to Reach 75 Yards Receiving
Odds: +175 (36%) on Bet365
- Allen returned from injury in Week 11.
- Since Week 11, he has at least 86 yards receiving in four of five games.
- He's averaged 10.4 targets, 7.2 receptions and 81.8 yards receiving per game since Week 11.
Parlay: Allen 75 Yards Receiving + Ekeler UNDER 55.5 Yards Rushing
Odds: +450 (18%) on Bet365
- I anticipate a pass-heavy game plan with all the Chargers' pass-catchers healthy.
- As mentioned earlier, Allen has exceeded this number in four of his past five games.
- As mentioned earlier, Ekeler should be more heavily utilized in the passing game.
- I'd estimate at least a 30% chance of this parlay hitting, yet the implied odds just need it to hit 18% of the time for this type of bet to be profitable long-term.
Deon Jackson to Reach 50 Yards Rushing
Odds: +360 (22%) on Bet365
- Jackson has played at least 30% of the snaps in four games this year, going OVER this number in two of four (50%).
- Jackson could split carries with Zack Moss. I'd give the edge to Moss, there's a real chance Jackson finishes with more carries, given the hot-hand approach.
- The Chargers allow an NFL-high 5.5 yards per carry to RBs, via The Edge.
Josh Palmer OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: -110 (52%) on DraftKings
- Palmer has at least 44 receiving yards in eight straight games.
We hope you enjoyed reading through these Monday Night Football player props. Be sure to always bet responsibly.
