Analysis
11/16/22
5 min read
NFL Week 11 Betting, DFS and Fantasy Information to Know
Sink, Eagles, sink! The Commanders "commanded" Monday night's game well enough to send the 1972 Dolphins into celebration mode. They dominated time of possession, played stellar defense, and were just potent enough offensively to score the upset victory over the previously undefeated Eagles.Â
Speaking of upsets, Aaron Rodgers finally started connecting with electric rookie WR Christian Watson, helping the Packers to embarrass their old head coach Mike McCarthy (now of the Cowboys). Green Bay was on a five-game skid coming into the game.Â
It must have been a holy week because WRs named Christian were dominant. The Jaguars' Christian Kirk exploded for 105 yards and two touchdowns. If you read my DVOA Dispatch article last Friday, you were ahead of the curve on Kirk, my favorite player for Week 10.
It has been a disappointing year for "over" bettors, but last week's article did hit on the Vikings-Bills and Colts-Raiders overs. Regarding player recommendations, we hit on Parris Campbell, Tyler Lockett, Chris Godwin and the Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs-Gabriel Davis-Justin Jefferson mega-stack.
We also hit on Kirk Cousins, Davante Adams, "Raiders TE", Christian McCaffrey, "Chargers WR" and even "Colts QB" (yes, it was presumed to be Sam Ehlinger until Jeff Saturday bait-and-switched for Matt Ryan on Sunday morning). So, it was a great week overall.
If you have a clean pocket, throwing downfield is that much easier. This week, let's look at pass-script-positive pressure-rate matchups.
Teams in the top 50 percent for pressure-rate allowed, playing against defenses in the bottom 50 percent for pressure rate:
- Detroit Lions (vs. New York Giants)
- Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Los Angeles Chargers)
- Buffalo Bills (vs. Cleveland Browns)
- New Orleans Saints (vs. Los Angeles Rams)
- San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
Betting Stats to Know
The Browns-Bills and Lions-Giants games are expected to kick off in wintery conditions, so check the weather as we approach game time.
The Lions (+3) face the surprising Giants in a game with a massive range of outcomes. This could be a snowy slugfest ending 13-10 or an awesome shootout along the lines of other Lions' games, perhaps 31-27. Unfortunately, Detroit is only averaging 15 points per game in away games, with two outcomes of 24 points or greater and two outcomes of six points or fewer. Yikes, stay away.
The Chiefs (-6.5) have a way-too-soon rematch with the Chargers on the docket. Why does the NFL schedule same-opponent divisional games so closely? It is terrible planning, unfair to the teams involved and annoying for fans. Do better, NFL! Playing in California, with some injured players hopefully returning on both sides, I can envision fireworks. The total is currently at 50, which means we need about seven touchdowns scored to hit. I think the over hits.
Buffalo (-8) plays Cleveland after their disappointing loss last week to the Vikings. The Browns have no Justin Jefferson on their team, though. I think the Bills will crush Cleveland here, so I will lay the points.
New Orleans (-4) was drubbed by the sad Steelers but now gets a reeling Rams team without Cooper Kupp. The total is 38.5, so this information is "baked in." I will undoubtedly be slamming the over and the Saints.
Christian McCaffrey and his San Francisco 49ers (-8) play the Cardinals on Monday in Mexico. Eight is a ton of points to lay for a divisional game, but I don't bet on Kliff Kingsbury after November starts. So, I will pass on both the spread and the 43.5-point total.
DFS Stats to Know
The Chiefs and the 49ers both play their games off of the main slate. Players I expect to excel in those games include George Kittle, Travis Kelce, whoever plays slot WR for the Chargers (hopefully Keenan Allen), Isiah Pacheco and Austin Ekeler.
The Lions' game boils down to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Saquon Barkley. The Giants are actually excellent at defending WRs, but St. Brown simply sees too many targets to ignore. He is the Jared Goff security blanket. At home, Barkley gets to feast on the fourth-worst run defense by EPA.
The Bills and Browns will be dealing with some precipitation, so Devin Singletary could reprise his lead-back role with many touches in store for him. Likewise, Nick Chubb will be the focus for Cleveland.
Thankfully, we do have a dome game to rely on. Play all the Saints. Alvin Kamara faces a stiff run defense (second) but catches enough passes and is heavily involved regardless. Chris Olave is in the running for Rookie of the Year and will play against the 26th-ranked non-slot WR defense of the Rams. Andy Dalton has my interest as the facilitator here. With Kupp on IR, Allen Robinson will have his chance to do something; anything at all. Now or never, Allen.
Waivers
Check out what my colleagues are saying about waiver pick-ups! Watson is a must-add, but I also like Devin Duvernay and Nico Collins.
Check in again next time for The Wednesday Watchman: Week 12!
(Data courtesy of SIS and TruMedia Networks)
