Analysis

11/21/22

7 min read

49ers vs. Cardinals DFS Monday Night Showdown

By Jordan Vanek

Deebo Samuel 49ers vs. Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals went undefeated against the San Francisco 49ers last season, and in one of these games, there was no DeAndre Hopkins or Kyler Murray. They have shown they can do it without their star weapons. But this time, they will have to show they can do it without four starters on the offensive line. The only good news for the Cardinals is that the 49ers are missing some key interior linemen on defense. Showdown slates with bad offensive lines can get messy, and that’s what I expect in this game.

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Vegas Line: 49ers -10

Over/Under: 43

Notable Injuries:

49ers

Out: DL Arik Armstead, DT Javon Kinlaw, CB Jason Verrett.

Questionable: Edge Samson Ebukam.

Cardinals

Out: TE Zach Ertz, LT D.J. Humphries, LG Justin Pugh, C Rodney Hudson, RG Will Hernandez, CB Byron Murphy Jr, WR Marquise Brown

Questionable: QB Kyler Murray, WR DeAndre Hopkins, LG Max Garcia.

Data to Know Provided by TruMedia

49ers Offense vs. Cardinals Defense

  • Jimmy Garoppolo averages 8.1 yards per attempt, 7.2 air yards per attempt and a 4.6% pass touchdown rate this season.
  • The Cardinals allow 7.2 yards per attempt, 6.3 air yards per attempt and a 4.7% pass touchdown rate this season.
  • The Cardinals are a heavy zone coverage scheme that blitzes a fair amount.
  • Against the blitz, Garoppolo averages 8.9 yards per attempt, 5.9 air yards per attempt and a 5.9% pass touchdown rate.
  • The 49ers' players are consistently making high-level plays after the catch.
  • Against zone coverage, Garoppolo averages 8.5 yards per attempt, 7.6 air yards per attempt and a .6% pass touchdown rate.
  • The yardage will be there, but I don’t anticipate Garoppolo to pass for many touchdowns.
  • Against zone blitzes, Garoppolo averages 8.8 yards per attempt, 6.4 air yards per attempt and a 2.4% pass touchdown rate.
  • These are all signs it’ll be a positive matchup for Garoppolo.
  • Four main players in the passing game will see production: Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.
  • The rotational pieces are Jauan Jennings, Ray-Ray McCloud and Kyle Juszczyk.
  • McCaffrey has been targeted on 32% of his routes with the 49ers against zone coverage.
  • McCaffrey already had nine receptions for 81 yards receiving and a touchdown against the Cardinals this year with the Panthers.
  • These coaching staffs have played gone against each other plenty, and McCaffrey is the only player the Cardinals' coaches haven't seen.
  • Aiyuk has seen the most targets of any player since McCaffrey joined the team. He has been targeted on 20% of routes against zone.
  • Kittle has been targeted on just 19% of his routes against zone coverage this season, and the Cardinals have allowed a lot of production to tight ends this season.
  • Travis Kelce and Dallas Goedert had more than 90 receiving yards and eight receptions against the Cardinals in their matchup.
  • With the amount of blitzing the Cardinals do, Kittle could be utilized as an extra blocker or a mismatch in the receiving game.
  • Samuel did not get it done against the Cardinals as a wide receiver last season and might not be the leader in receiving going forward.
  • The Cardinals have given up 4.5 yards per carry this season.
  • Kenneth Walker recorded more than 90 yards rushing in both Cardinals' matchups, and Dalvin Cook had 111 against Arizona.
  • Elijah Mitchell came back from IR and took rushing attempts from McCaffrey last week.
  • Mitchell will be a big piece of this offense to keep McCaffrey fresh, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him get more carries.

Cardinals Offense vs. 49ers Defense

  • Colt McCoy is expected to start. He averages 6.4 yards per attempt, 5.6 air yards per attempt and a 2.7% pass touchdown rate.
  • The 49ers give up 6.8 yards per attempt, 6.4 air yards per attempt and a 3.1% pass touchdown rate.
  • Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback to perform at a high level against the 49ers, and I don’t anticipate McCoy doing so.
  • The 49ers' defense gets pressure on 39% of dropbacks this season.
  • McCoy was sacked on 5% of his dropbacks and is playing with a backup offensive line.
  • McCoy is going to target DeAndre Hopkins and Rondale Moore heavily.
  • These wide receivers got targeted on more than 30% of their routes this past weekend.
  • Slot wide receivers have been most successful against the 49ers this season.
  • Moore operates from the slot at the highest rate, and Hopkins will also see plenty of snaps there.
  • With Zach Ertz gone, Trey McBride will see plenty of work as he did last weekend.
  • The 49ers have allowed three tight ends to be productive: Kelce, Tyler Higbee, and Kyle Pitts.
  • Pitts scored a touchdown off three targets and 19 yards receiving against the Cardinals.
  • Higbee had 10 targets to be productive in their first matchup, and in the second matchup had two receptions for 15 yards.
  • The 49ers have the best-run defense in the NFL.
  • The Cardinals cut Eno Benjamin, leaving their backfield with James Conner, Keaontay Ingram and Corey Clement.
  • Conner will lead this team in touches and won't come off the field in a close game script. 
  • Ingram will be the primary backup, but he only saw one carry last weekend.
  • In the past, Clement has been a receiving back, but Conner will likely take most of the routes.

Overall Thoughts

This matchup is one of the more lopsided ones of the season, and there isn’t much to love for the Cardinals side. McCoy will be pressured a lot in this game, and I expect plenty of sacks and turnovers for the 49ers. The only way they keep this game close is with turnovers on defense and a healthy run game from Conner. The volume Moore and Hopkins will see keeps both of them in play. But it’s difficult to imagine they find more than 100 yards.

The 49ers will always be a difficult matchup to pinpoint because they have four-star weapons on the offensive side of the ball. McCaffrey is the new wrinkle into the game plan of this matchup, and I expect him to be in for a big game receiving. Garoppolo will be in for a highly efficient game, but if he isn’t turning it over for the Cardinals to find points, there shouldn’t be a lot of volume going his way to get the 300-yard bonus. Between Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle, the pricing puts them all at play, but I wouldn’t attempt to get all three into one lineup. Speed is a problem for the Cardinals’ run defense, so I expect Samuel to get snaps in the backfield.

49ers vs. Cardinals DFS Multiplier Pool

  • RB Christian McCaffrey
  • QB Jimmy Garoppolo
  • WR Deebo Samuel
  • D/ST 49ers

49ers vs. Cardinals DFS FLEX Pool

  • WR DeAndre Hopkins
  • RB James Conner
  • WR Brandon Aiyuk
  • TE George Kittle
  • WR Rondale Moore
  • RB Elijah Mitchell
  • K Robbie Gould
  • K Matt Prater
  • D/ST Cardinals
  • WR Greg Dortch
  • RB Kyle Juszcyk

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Tags: Arizona Cardinals, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey See More

Jordan Vanek

Jordan has been playing DFS since 2016 and started writing content at the end of 2020. While playing DFS, he has managed multiple top 10 finishes in NFL, college football, baseball, basketball and NASCAR.

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